Lol good example of good hands gone wrong!

20.08.2009, 12:54 0

Hi all, I seem to be having a bit of a downswing. Bad luck with pokerstars you might say.

In two days i believe i´ve lost 50 dollars. Yesterday my AA got crushed three times. Actually didnt win any of them. First time 33 killed it. Then a flush killed it and then again 66 killed it.
Thats okey... AA lose 20% of the time. That was variance of 60% just happens.

My KK that i got twice. lost to QQ and TT.

Then funniest hand was when i was headsup and had A9 suited and the guy raises all in and i call he has 34 offsuit. flop comes up with a A for me but turn and river come up with 3 and 4.

And today i just lost with 99 again 22 and again 66 again 55.

Encouragement?

11 replies

_Anonymous_

20.08.2009, 13:14 0

Don't give up :f_p:

And what do you mean "That was variance of 60%"? If AA has a probability of losing 20% of the times, then losing 3 times in a row has a 60% probability?

justkyle88

Joined: 07.05.2008

Posts: 7,612

20.08.2009, 15:13 0

omg I tried to explain that the 3 20%'s don't add up to 60% the other night to one of my players.

justkyle88 BLOG

_Anonymous_

20.08.2009, 16:54 0

Thanks for the good encouragement!

Anyways i just put those numbers together no exact science there.

_Anonymous_

20.08.2009, 17:20 0

I think it's about 0.8% chance to lose with aces 3 times in a row (if you go all-in preflop).
And, if it makes you happier, today I had an unbelievable bad beatish day too :f_biggrin:

_Anonymous_

20.08.2009, 18:05 0

Weird thing... whats the chance for getting

44-55-66-77-88 in a row in the same sng ?

_Anonymous_

20.08.2009, 19:41 0

0.0045%. Yay math!

SalamiandCheese

Joined: 16.07.2008

Posts: 569

21.08.2009, 14:05 0

For the 44,55,66,77,88 thing...

It's 220:1 to be dealt a specific pocket pair so it's (1/221)^5 or 52.7 billion:1 for that. :f_o:

_Anonymous_

21.08.2009, 14:15 0

Okey wow ! That happened to me yesterday!!! I have to get my hand history now to prove this !!!

MisterHomes

Joined: 12.09.2008

Posts: 128

21.08.2009, 19:18 0

LMAO, ffs that's not the right probability... you can't just multiply specific hands together or you'll get something ridiculous... odds of getting dealt a pocket pair is 5.9%, odds of getting dealt 5 in a row = 1/1286008 or 0.0000715%

_Anonymous_

29.08.2009, 19:40 0

Well then the odds of them being 44-55-66-77 and all that

andreibalint

Joined: 11.04.2009

Posts: 737

29.08.2009, 20:48 0

To get the statistics of something happening you multiply your chances. Getting crushed 3 times with aces happenes in 20%*20%*20% of the cases. That's like 0.8%. The other way around winning 3 times it's 80%^3 so 51,12%. That's why i like getting out of a cash game when i double my money.

About good hands going wrong i know the feeling... I don't feel like I play good overall but i certainly play better than a lot of my opponents. But i lose and lose and lose and then lose a little more. I generally play NL SH, but i swiched to FL where... i lost. I tried to explain my sister a few things about SnG's so i kept on playing a few... And i lost lol. My goal now is to play good all these types of games so when i semi-tilt from a downswing and switch to another game i can still play overall profitably.

[Closed] Lol good example of good hands gone wrong!