gonna withdraw my remaing $650. this puts my total at exactly $1000 from this holiday period.
shall take a rest and try and find more resources. then deposit and make use of first deposit bonus.
hopefully this episode is only the start of things.
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Originally posted by shortfuse
So, to answer one part of your question, it shouldn't matter for a non-american whether you use € or £, as they should both follow the same trend when compared against $."
!
does Danish Krone follow this same trend?
is it just me or does the $ seem to increase in value around new year and spring these past years?
if you look at graphs of the $ the last few years the falls and rises have been very impressive so i think at the right times it can be an even better investment than shares.
the dollar is 5.0 to the danish krone atm. last spring it rose to a peak of 5.7.
if it is gonna rise that much again it would be stupid for me to cash out now and invest in shares instead wouldn't it?
i think the $ is almost at it's lowest ever compared to the krone atm so it must go up again soon i think since they are saying the crises is almost over.
btw great blog you got here! allthough some of it is too advanced for me.
Originally posted by Anssi
If we look at last 70 years, shares have gone up 10% on average each year. Yes, in some years they will go down, but most of time they will go up. There have been recessions back then too, even worse than the current one.
The past has no effect whatsoever on the future in such a case.
Also, gotta take in account that during those 70 years, a large % of companies have gone bankrupt mode.
@ raun
here is a link for $ to krone graph.
http://www.x-rates.com/d/USD/DKK/graph120.html
compare this with $ to £, or any other currency and you will notice there is similar trends. http://www.x-rates.com/d/USD/GBP/graph120.html
this may be a revelation for you and we should understand that the money currency is mostly driven by speculative demand so it's no surprise a change in one price will almost instantaneously cause a change in another! ie there must be a balance, of course there will always be tiny errors in pricing in which people may take advantage of etc but this is another topic.
when you say the $ seems to increase in value in certain seasons, you must realise it is not the seasons that cause it to change... it is the result of many different factors perhaps from seasonal change. also you shouldn't really see these as trends so much unless you have a large amount of data and can prove these are not coincidences and explain the cause... I'm sure as poker players we have been told many times that sample size is very crucial!
when you say the $ MUST go up again, this is VERY dangerous and I discourage you to actually put your money into the currency market. Without proper knowledge, which I don't have either, it is practically gambling!
ps http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/fds/hi/business/market_data/currency/12/11639/twelve_month.stm shows that last march and nov you needed 6 kroners to buy $1. now, you can 'only' get 5 kroners from $1 if you were to cashout.
not to be pedantic but it can be confusing when you use 'it' instead of a currency!
anyway, i'll assume you mean you think the $ is at its lowest so you think the $ would strengthen. This is good news for you if you want to cashout. Since if the $ strengthened then you need e.g 6 kroners to buy $1. ie. you can get 1 extra kroner from $1 compared to now.
BUT you assumption was wrong, since the $ was at a high point in march NOT a low point. the dollar could buy more kroners at that time, it was stronger. Now it is actually weakening (but don't take my word for it ;)) and so you can buy MORE dollars with 1 kroner. this means you need MORE dollars to convert to kroners!
now if you believe the dollar is weakening, then you would wait until its weakest point and convert your domestic currency into dollars and deposit.
ie. now would be a good time to cashout when the dollar is relatively strong (even though it was stronger months before).
but please don't literally take my advice, it is just ideas to help understand currency!
thanks for the advice. i am not sure if i understood right but do you think it would be wise to sell now?
it just seems to me everything fell when the crisis hit: shares, houseprices currencies and so on and now it seems to be rising again so i wonder if it isnt just a matter of time before the $ also starts to rise.
and i dont really want to cashout since i would like to keep climbing limits when they become available.
on the other hand i just did a calculation and exactly 1 month ago aug. 19. my balance would have been worth around 1500kr (300$) more than it is now. thats a lot of money just vanished.
i had a look on a 30 year graph of dollar/krone and it spikes up and down all the time so to i am very confident that at some point the $ will go up again.
The reason why currencies go up and down are way too numerous to be listed. IMO, I also think the $ will get less expensive against the Euro for the next month. I do think that in the near-future the dollar may spike up brutally and reach close to parity to the Euro though, due to the economic forecast of the Euro and American zone. But I won't discuss that in detail or else we may have a thesis-like post that would render everyone but economists asleep.
I'm not sure if i got my point across properly.
I believe we have already experienced (in this 1-2 year period) the point where the dollar was strongest i.e. jan-march when £1 could only buy $1.4
http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/fds/hi/business/market_data/currency/11/12/twelve_month.stm
thus... if we were to assume that the crisis is getting better and that americans are spending more, given that they import far more than export then this means the dollar should get even more weaker as supply increases in the world market.
it would only make sense therfore to assume that soon (1 -2year) we will resume on the business cycle as before though perhaps not as 'prosperous' and this would mean the pound (or kroner, or whatever currency you have) continuing to strengthen and simultaneously the dollar weakens by definition.
but pleaaase take this with a pinch of salt, just throwing some ideas around!
Depends on the fiscal and economic policies adopted by the US and EU. And that's why I say the $ has more probabilities of strengthening than the Euro, since I believe the US will recover from the crisis better than the EU.
okay i understood this last post better.
so you believe that because things are returning to normal as they were before the crisis the $ will weaken but by that logic how could the dollar rise so much around year 2000 when the market was also strong afaik?
or maybe it was the danish krone that fell in that period... i dunno
i know it is probably a very complex thing to explain so i appriciate you trying
The trick about the science of Economics is that, even though we economists work with equations, numbers and endless mathematical formulae, in the end it's considered a social science, and there's no equation in existence that will predict how people will act and react to any event. So in the end it's us, people, who drive any economy, and the founding stone of a healthy economy is consumer's confidence in their economy. If the population of a country is confident about their country, then you can be sure that their economy will prosper, and that's why this crisis is so bad, it completely wiped out people's confidence in their own economy.
Originally posted by raun
okay i understood this last post better.so you believe that because things are returning to normal as they were before the crisis the $ will weaken but by that logic how could the dollar rise so much around year 2000 when the market was also strong afaik?
or maybe it was the danish krone that fell in that period... i dunnoi know it is probably a very complex thing to explain so i appriciate you trying
when you say dollar rise i think you mean the pound rises! take care to notice which currency is the one appreciating.
this should be of great interest to you
http://www.miketodd.net/encyc/dollhist.htm
OK I'VE OFFICALLY CONVERTED TO SHORTHANDED GAMES. THERE ARE JUST IDIOTS EVERYWHERE FIRING 3 BARRELS ALL THE TIME LOL
IT IS HEAVEN.
NO MORE NITTY FULL RING WHERE ALL THE TAGS SCREW EACH OTHER OVER WITH SET VS SET LOL
Hi shortfuse,
Nice blog, I was just wanting to ask if you are playing BSS or SSS on the 6 ring games? I have been thinking about SSS on the 6 game rings a little over the last couple of days and have been wondering how to adjust the starting range, surely you need to play looser cards to compensate for the more frequent blinds?
Gl on the tables
I am playing BSS on 6 ring games. If I find a table too tight then it is very easy to quickly find a fishy one!
There is a thread about SSS in shorthanded games. Suggestion:short-stacking in 6-max
There is on average 1 shortstack in shorthanded tables, unless it is full of them. However it is unclear whether they are playing with a winning strategy or are simply reducing their potential losses!
What screwed me over was a shortstack today limping with AA and I decided to raise with QQ and the shortstack shoved. Obviously missing details, but you can see how in some situations due to the 'assumptions' made by regular players, short stackers can surprise multitablers!
As I said, best to click that link and post in that thread. I'm unsure whether these SSS players could handle leaking so many blinds and being outplayed.
Yes in general players (BSS) need to loosen up, but rarely limp - seek the initiative preflop if you want to play in position.
Of course, you should therefore be much tighter UTG and out of position but that is a given in fullring too!
Due to the nature of SH games, playing the player type, good players should be able to spot that the shortstack is very tight! In fact, some bad players would catch on soon enough.
I just read through this looks great hope to see more updates... how has the SH games been going for you?
Sorry for very late reply. This thread has gotten really stale :/
Firstly, you may notice my status is bronze. This is because I am using my old FT account and using the first deposit bonus since I onyl ever made a play account. Sadly, I cannot get rakeback.
I deposited $600 of course to make full use. I did not deposit more as I feel uncomfortable with large amounts of money lol (bad trait) and thus decided to step doown from my shot at NL50sh and keep grinding NL25sh.
This was a very succesfull pursuit in the beginning. First week I shot up to $300+ I think and was feeling great. Of course, I didn't realise I was on a heater (always having an even better hand than opponent, not necessarily sucking out). I bumped roll up $1100 and started taking shots at NL50sh as suggested by other members; it dawned on me that whilst its great being careful with BR in the micros its more to do with improvement.
I was not unfamiliar with NL50sh as I started playing it at my last poker site PP towards the end before I withdrew so was not scared of losing stacks. But perhaps too unafraid looking back.
Then, disaster.
Having played 30k hands and had that same feeling of ''why is it so hard to win a stack off someone?'' back when I started NL25fr, I have a profit of exactly $0 (for FT). LOL- or not. ie i broke even, I aint actually broke don't worry 
Sure enough the heater reversed and I was on the receving end of an ass wooping. My sets were smaller blah blah blah worse flush blah blah blah etc.
So, sitting on $800 ($200 released from bonuses) I must have generated $1k of rake at FT lol I thought I can't continue bouncing around up and down.
Today, I moved down to NL25sh.
BEST FEELING EVER.
I realised how much better I had become over this crappy breakeven period. Here is a beautiful hand of poker btw, where noone did wrong and I unfortunately got the bad end.
Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:
$0.25/$0.5 No-Limit Hold'em (6 handed)
Known players:
[tg]BU(Hero)$60.65:///////;SB$72.45:///////;BB$50.75:///////;MP2$70.50:///////;MP3$50.00:///////;CO$208.35:///////;[/tg]
Preflop: Hero is BU with 9:d, T:d.
3 folds, Hero raises to $2.00, SB calls $1.75, BB calls $1.50.
Flop: ($6) 6:c, 8:d, 7:d (3 players)
SB checks, BB bets $4.50, Hero raises to $12.00, SB raises to $70.45(All-In), BB calls $44.25(All-In), Hero calls $46.65(All-In).
Turn: ($183.85) 5:d (0 players)
Hero gets uncalled bet back.
River: ($183.85) 4:d (0 players)
Hero gets uncalled bet back.
Final Pot: $137.2.
Results follow:
BB shows a straight flush, eight high(6:s 6:d).
Hero shows a flush, ten high(9:d T:d).
SB shows a straight, eight high(8:c 7:c).
BB wins with a straight flush, eight high(6:s 6:d).
Hero wins with a flush, ten high(9:d T:d).
I was expecting the fullhouse to come and this was just insane!
I also realised how NL25 is vastly different to NL50, it is much easier to extract value. Of course I never really adapted when moving up to NL50 and it showed I think. People float and abuse position much more in NL50 and I would curse whenever my cbets would fail and cbetting again on turn failed miserably yet I would continue to and pray they fold. I couldn't categorise players well, the regs woulld do really unregular things and fish played like pros at times :/ it was disorganised. I would win a stack then spew it off in 1/4 stacks ie $12 a hand from bluffing.
So yer, I think I'll keep grinding NL25 and be the big boss of the table once again.
I also can't access the hand evaluation boards which is a real shame as I use to always make use of it and it certainly helped, ironically with the c/c which I overused lately lol.
I'd show you my graph but you can guess its just one big volatile up and down over 30k hands starting at 0 and ending at 0, though never in the negative!
Moving down is best thing on earth, I'd like to think of my time spent on NL50 as practice for being infinitely better than regs at NL25sh. Kinda like not letting your gameboy pokemon evolve so when it does, it is so much better than others! But not really... more like evolving then going back and beating up the unevolved pokemon. What am I talking about.
Anyway, it was only today I decided to move down. Could very well be variance, in fact for example I flopped quads but the fact is that more players at NL25 pay you off so it was a double whammy. Oh and today is sunday so more fish.
Point is: I'm so glad I moved down. Though my stupid brain thinks that because I won $75 then it means I could have won $150 at NL50. Clearly not the case as it is much easier to win at NL25, otherwise its all luck of course.
Right now I don't want to think about moving back back up to NL50, I just wanna grind my BR up to $2k before xmas, that seems like a very reachable goal but still rewarding, for me at least!
Profits since joining here stands at $1.5k I think is a modest guess. So this episode is just a blip.
30k hands is nothing. Well actually it is something, but not as much as you would think...