NL100 FR AKs Flushdraw flop.

DaPhunk

Joined: 01.03.2008

28.09.2009, 05:32 0

Party Poker $100.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 302107
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

SB: $277.28
BB: $133.60
UTG: $100.00
MP: $118.38
CO: $82.95
Hero (BTN): $101.68

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is BTN with A :heart: K :heart:
1 fold, MP raises to $4, 1 fold, Hero calls $4, 2 folds

Flop: ($9.50) Q :diamond: 6 :heart: Q :heart: (2 players)
MP bets $6.77, Hero raises to $20, MP raises to $114.38, Hero calls $77.68 all in

Turn: ($204.86) 9 :heart: (2 players - 1 is all in)

River: ($204.86) 4 :heart: (2 players - 1 is all in)

This villain is so incredibly tight I can't help feeling he either has the Full House or AQ (which we have equity to call against) here.......

Am I mad to think I'm pretty much screwed here?

Kruppe and DaPhunk; My Blog!

3 replies

TheBrood

Joined: 17.07.2008

Posts: 4,381

28.09.2009, 14:02 0

I played around a bit with Equilator and I get:

Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
Player 1: 31.620 % 31.582 % 0.074 % 68.343 % AhKh
Player 2: 68.380 % 68.343 % 0.074 % 31.582 % QQ+, AQs, KQs, AQo

I don't think he is shoving worse than this range here. If we include 66 its worse:

Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
Player 1: 26.686 % 26.655 % 0.062 % 73.283 % AhKh
Player 2: 73.314 % 73.283 % 0.062 % 26.655 % QQ+, 66, AQs, KQs, AQo

You get nearly 38% pot odds(not including rake) so I dont like the call unless he can shove 99-JJ there:

Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
Player 1: 38.082 % 37.991 % 0.182 % 61.827 % AhKh
Player 2: 61.918 % 61.827 % 0.182 % 37.991 % 99+, 66, AQs, KQs, AQo

♠ NL50 BSS Mansion | Quote of the week by andyb43: "loosing the $50 could be traumatic if you are bouncing along on the bones of your arse" ♠

Bierbaer

Joined: 27.05.2005

Posts: 3,322

01.10.2009, 08:39 0

I guess after you raised and he pushes you have a fold.

But i think i don't like the raise to begin with.
He has a 5% openingrange in MP, thats:
TT+,AQ+, KQ.
So he would be bet/folding AK, JJ or TT at best.
In most other cases you'll at least get called and you're in big trouble.

So i'd just call the cbet.

Variance giveth and variance taketh away.

[Angebot] Private Coaching für NLSH bis inkl. NL100
Jetzt neu: Coaching-Sonderpreise für Microstakes-Spieler!

Bierbaer in Action (Podcasts inside)
[Coaching-Serie] Donkbets FTW [Coaching-Serie] Generalüberholung Gameplan Callen von 3-bets OOP

TheBrood

Joined: 17.07.2008

Posts: 4,381

01.10.2009, 14:53 0

yes, vs a very tight player we dont have much FE so it seems better to just go for pot odds. If you call flop he might put you on a Q(if hes cautious) and check turn, allowing you to see cheap river.
He will be less inclined to put you on FD because of the pf raise, so we have some implieds if another heart falls I think.

♠ NL50 BSS Mansion | Quote of the week by andyb43: "loosing the $50 could be traumatic if you are bouncing along on the bones of your arse" ♠

[Closed] NL100 FR AKs Flushdraw flop.