"I hope i get my question right in english: i got a problem with steal situations. when players steal with 2,5bb
and i resteal according to the resteal chart and they only call then with a tight range i think i loose money in the long term.
is it maybe possible to make a small 3bet like 8bb and fold to a push? i discussed this with jaro and hes also not sure"
To start with, a resteal with more than 50% equity against the stealing range does not always guarantee profit.
Example on NL 200:
We are in the BU and resteal vs. CO.
ATS: 20
Raisesize: 3BB
Stacksize: 25BB
We resteal KQs which has 51.4% equity.
a) 100% calling range
EV = 25BB*0.514 - 25BB*0.486 = +0.7BB
b) 60% calling range
EV = 0.4*4.5BB + 0.6[25BB*0.453 - 25BB*0.547] = 0.39BB
c) 30% calling range
EV = 0.7*4.5BB + 0.3[25BB*0.366 - 25*0.634] = +1.14
The 1st and the 2nd case are only a bit profitable. Of course we can take these plays with a very small EV, too but it is very swingy. And if we have a stack which is only a bit bigger or a 2.5BB stealraise we can easily make loss . This is due to mainly 2 variables which aren't included in the resteal chart:
- the raisesize
- our stacksize
A small raisesize and a big stack can greatly decrease our EV. Thus the question mentioned above really seems important to discuss.
As well as Jaro and aaltvater I'm not sure how to react in these situations in order to create the highest EV.
There are mainly 2 possibilities:
- 3bet small and fold to a push
- tighten up our resteal hand requirements
Lets deal with the latter first. It is imo the easier one. If we face situations where we have a bigger stack and a small stealraise then
we can simply tighten up our resteal range. ATS 30 => take resteal hands according to ATS 20. As a result we create a margin of safety.
Its an easy solution which however does not provide maximum EV.
So far I only made some thoughts about the other possibility since it was questionend in the coaching. I have no experience with it. This thread should rather be an inspiration to a discussion. Experiments with this play should only be done by advanced players!
The other solution can create much additional value since it will then also be possible to play 3bet bluffs.
However it can imo only be used in certain circumstances.
Is it possible at all to fold to a push after we made a 3bet?
This is a question of pot odds. Consequently the key indicator is our stacksize.
Even with a 2.5BB stealraise and a 3bet 2.5times the raise it won't be possible to fold to a push when we only have a 15BB stack.
Thus I think 3bet/fold can only be played with a 20BB+ (maybe 18BB+) stack. This is however no problem.
Imagine the initial example with a 15BB stack:
b2) 60% calling range
EV = 0.4*3BB + 0.6[15BB*0.453 - 15BB*0.547] = +0.354BB
If we then add a small margin of safety we will be able to defend profitable with a normal resteal even against small stealraises.
From now on I really find it hard to give exact recommendations. There are simply too many different variables
which must be considered into our decision.
Imo 3bet/fold is correct against players who steal very aggressive and with a small raisesize against us.
But this play is only possible when they have a tight pushing range in addition.
These are all hands we would resteal up to a 50% ATS:
A5o+, A2s+
KTo+, K8s+
QTs+
44+
Even against a 10% pushing range (which is tight) we can't fold any of them (maybe A5o-A8o) after we made a 3bet
as long as we're not getting worse pot odds than 2:1. (33% equity)
This is the case when:
stealraise 2BB, 3bet 2.5 times => stack > 15BB
stealraise 2.5BB, 3bet 2.5 times => stack> 18.75BB
stealraise 3BB, 3bet 2.5 times => stack> 22.5
=> Imo we can't play 3bet/fold with normal resteal hands (within the normal stacksize range) unless our opponent pushes very tight (something like AJ+, 99+) which is mostly unrealistic on higher limits.
3bet/fold is thus only possible when we play a pure bluff 3bet with a trash hand.
The break even fold equities are:
3bet 2.5 times the raise: 71.4%
3bet 3 times the raise: 75%
So a pure bluff is only profitable when we see more than 75% foldequity. Our opponent must be able to fold 75%
of his stealing range. at least a 40% ATS is necessary imo. This seems much, but often a bigstack raises any2 from the SB if a SSSP is in the BB.
I have said enough imo now. You see that this is an open field. I would be happy about some comments and a discussion.
Only so it will be possible to develop kind of a strategy for defending against small stealraises.
Summary
With a normal stack and an equity based stealing hand it is imo not possible to play 3bet/fold. Thus we can only play 3bet/fold with pure bluffs.
Now we have to consider some things in order to make this play profitable and not easily exploitable:
- only bluff if we have enough FE (high ATS or very tight pushing range)
- only play 3bet fold with total trash so that we can still fold
- we have to play ALL!!! resteals (bluffs and equity raises) exactly the same way against the specific opponent
- never show a total bluff. otherwise our foldequity is gone
- don't overdo bluff-restealing
- our opponent knows we're playing tight SSS and will thus steal extremely loose against us
Consequently, if we have made a small 3bet our opponent can't tell wether we're on a bluff or not since we always resteal against him this way.
The whole thing stands and falls with his pushing range! It must stay tight!
Otherwise we won't be able to bluff profitable.
