[Closed] Badbeats and Suckouts and Tilt, Oh My!

hi Verre;

I haven't read your blog for the last week or so and have just realized I have to do it more regularly

Few things I wanted to tell you:

- if you will ever consider bonus whoring again: start with ULTRA-conservative BRM!! You will get big bonuses once per 6-12 months (it's big mistake to take them earlier obv) so you have to have huge bankroll because if your real WR while multitabling is -0.5 / +0.5 BB/100 hands, you can expect huge swings in short period of the time (i know what I'm talking about). You need up to 600 BB available all the time if you play 12 tables on site without auto-rebuy option + expect to lose a lot in such long term (up to 1 year).. I don't want to say what is optimal, but I believe 2000 BB is must (wouldn't say enough though) depending on periods between getting bonuses (PokerStars is the best here, because the biger available bonuses are $4k here)
- don't consider bonus whoring on 2/4.. it's the lowest limit where it becomes profitable imo and you have to have the chance to move down if the things go bad and you need to finish bonus clearing
- 3/6 and 5/10 on iPoker are nice for RB but don't expect any nice kind of WR... There were 14 5/10 tables tonight (I haven't seen so many for months) but 12 of them were full of TAGs and the rest were: 45/20 guy + 5 Tags & 67/2 + 5 Tags.. not much fun :/
- congrats on Platinum!
- You can't have positive non-SD winnings in long term in FL unless you play HU . . it's different game that NL and this is not possible to achieve - definetely not on small stakes
- dont be overexcited about winning sessions and too sad about losing ones.. If you maintain 50:50 ratio, you'll be big winner!

And of course: Good luck!

Thanks for the kind words Opal,

I got a question for all you FL players out there. I know that table selection is of epic importance, but without seeing stats before sitting down I'm always at a dissadvantage to start table selecting. I know most serious players use table selecting software, but unfortunately I dont know what to look for in purchasing it.

Holdem Manager has released a table selector program that works off your database and thier database. Does anyone know if this works the same as Telescope (not sure if thats the correct name) or any of the other table selecting softwares? I'm seriously looking into buying one but want to make the right choice before I do. Input from other players using software would be much appreciated.

Well, it's not so complicated as it may look. It's either SpadeIt software or nothing

Just go to www.spadeit.com and choose the platform you play on. The price varies between $29 - $49 depending on network what is fair price imo.

Use TableScan turbo! It's still a beta version so completely free!! And I prefer it over telescope and also HEM table scanner.

Just google it.

btw: don't buy telescope. There's (almost) no more development. AFAIK Mr. Snood is now working for HEM table scanner.

In your comparison of RB between Titan and Stars... the one thing that you cant really calculate is that with the time that your going to be playing on iPoker there arent as many tables vs Stars which has tables running all the time and I do think because stars is so big it also attracts lots of those hobby players (atleast at low/mid stakes) who are easy pickins.

Thanks for the info guys, and KidPokerskid your right. I avoided bringing that into the situation because I wanted to do the calculation on a level playing field. Also what I didn't mention here that I did in the other forum was that I forgot milestone bonuses which are epic good.

As for spadeit.com, they tell me to buy telescope for pokerstars, but Darth says he went to work for HEM. I used the trial HEM version previously and it seemed to work well. Does tablescan turbo use the same principals as HEM scanner where it uses your database to find good tables?

Well guys, I got a mental issue I want you guys to smack me around for.

I have been reading many articles on FL online regarding rake and limits. Many articles I've read claim that most FL at most sites is unprofitable. They claim you have to run like a god to win at most of the high limits and have to play donks at the low limits.

With this said they say the only profitable way to play FL at the higher limits is to bonus whore, while at lower limits you can just dominate bad opponents for profit.

Now obviously for those of us trying to play for a living at the lower to mid limits and trying to climb this may be of some concern. For me it seems I am unable to mass multitable profitably. I can play small amounts of tables somewhat profitably but as the rake stays the same but the players get better my edge slowly falls. By the time I reach 3/6 and 5/10 I'm sure my edge will be very very small. I may not be able to beat the rake.

Obviously this can be countered by putting in mass amounts of hands and getting rakeback, but I have proven in the past that I cannot multitable successfully. What does this mean for me and my poker career?

Should I play NL? I'm successful at NL but I doubt I have the same edge. Tournaments? I believe my highest edge is here, even more than FL. The problem is the profit is so speratic. You may lose for 2 months then hit a big win, then break even for another 2 months. This is why I switched to cash games in the first place. Stay with FL? I'm good at FL, but I'm not superman. I probubly cant beat the rake 4 tabling 3/6 or 5/10. SnGs? I honestly dont want to play SnGs. I have an edge but not a large one, although I'm sure I can build a greater edge with some practice. I just dont really have the desire. Multi table SnGs may be an option though. My edge here is greater and I enjoy them more. Varience is greater here though which kind of kills my drive for it.

As you can see I dont know what I'm going to do. Some input from you other FL players would help a lot. I know Opal is struggling with some of these questions too and although he may have the same thoughts, he can still play profitably bonus whoring where as I cannot. Thank you in advanced for all your thoughts.

Edit:The last option is FL HU which is something that I dont think about alot but have been. There are not always alot of tables but its a possibility.

Hey all,

I feel I owe it to you to tell you where I'm at with my poker.

Over the last week I tuned down my FL game. There are a few reasons of which I wont get into but they are numorous. Mostly I feel no matter how hard I study my edge will not be sufficient at higher stakes to beat the rake and the players. This is debatable but if I spend a ~year to grind to 5/10 and find out its not beatable I basically wasted a year. I cannot afford that.

What I have decided to do is go back to when I started to make profit playing poker. I started poker playing SnGs only. I was a true fish and realized poker was more about skill and knowledge than luck. I went on to learn about NL Cash and big tournaments. I had enough skill to win in both and to this day I still feel my biggest edge is in tournament play. As of right now I do not feel my NL Cash skill is big enough to crush NL25 but it is probubly enough to be a winning player. This is not enough for me though.

Over the last week I have been spending ~4 hours daily in the NL SH strategy and videos. I thought that I would start playing today but I still do not feel I have the knowledge to crush, so I jumped back into the strategy.

What I have been doing the last week is playing some of the smaller tournaments on a lot of the sites, Mostly $11 and down. I've shown a profit of about ~550.00 which isn't bad. I've top three'd 3 90 man $11 tournaments which adds to the profits nicely. Unfortunately I could not pull the same in the FTP Double Duece on Sunday. I was at a table with two horribly loose players that kept getting lucky against everyone else. I kept taking thier chips and they kept getting them back from unlucky players. We got down to near the bubble and I woke up with QQ with one of the bad loose aggro players who bet into me, I reraised and in typical fasion he pushed over. I had seen him do this with everything from 56s to pocket Tens, so I made the call. It was the one time he held a hand and his KK held up against my QQ. I believe I made the right play but it was my own fault I was out. I hadn't played my best throughout the whole tournament and missed plenty of spots for value. I should have covered him but I did not and I was out.

As you can see I've had a change of pace. I will try this for two months. If I see improvement in my NL game or pure domination, I will probubly continue NL. If I do not I will move back to FL and pour 100% into it no matter what the chances of me getting screwed by rake at the higher limits.

In 10 days I've managed to put in 4000 hands of 6 max NL .10/.25. Despite running at 7.5 bb/100 I've found that I am EXTREMELY bored during play. In fact I do not even have a drive to play when I wake up each day. I find myself forcing myself to play rather then looking forward to playing.

This got me thinking about my FL play. I looked forward to waking up to play. Some days I did not even go to bed and instead just played because I loved it so much. But I did not put in the same amount of effort and study I did with this NL excursion. I rarely ever reviewed sessions and barely ever watched vids or read strat. Maybe I thought I knew it all and was a winning player without it, but it is so against my nature to not try and be the best at something and that is why I think I had a mental falling out with FL.

I feel like I am floating through precious time. I am now currently looking for a job again. My skill in poker did not fail me, my lack of drive to be the best did. That will change.

Originally posted by Verre
Many articles I've read claim that most FL at most sites is unprofitable.

With this said they say the only profitable way to play FL at the higher limits is to bonus whore...

As much as I want one less player fighting for my fish I have to call bullshit here.

The only way to beat FL if you are a close to break even TAG and you can mass tables without taking a big winrate hit is to bonus whore.

The skins with huge rakeback deals that encourage/enable this kind of playing are ruining the games, don't become a part of the problem!

Originally posted by TerrorBlade

Originally posted by Verre
Many articles I've read claim that most FL at most sites is unprofitable.

With this said they say the only profitable way to play FL at the higher limits is to bonus whore...

As much as I want one less player fighting for my fish I have to call bullshit here.

The only way to beat FL if you are a close to break even TAG and you can mass tables without taking a big winrate hit is to bonus whore.

The skins with huge rakeback deals that encourage/enable this kind of playing are ruining the games, don't become a part of the problem!

So what are you saying here TB? That rather than bonus whore, become a better than b/e TAG and focus on win rate and (obviously and unavoidably) rakeback?

BTW Verre (seeing as it is your blog and all!) I think your issues studying FL summed up my problems with FL pretty well.. I think I'm over the worst of it (for the moment anyway) as study and review have become a much clearer focus for me. Or at least they will once I'm through a bit of RL BS.

In any case GL with wherever you end up.

FWIW I have always had in the back of my mind - if I were ever to apply serious amounts of time to playing poker - that I would play multiple variants.

There is an argument as to completely focussing on one form of the game which is, of course, pretty compelling. However, if you focus primarily and substantially on one form of the game, then divide your time and/or bank roll into a couple of others, I don't see a huge downside.

For example, I'd mused on playing FL as my main game for 4-5 days a week, trying to cram in 30 - 40 hours playing with 10 - 15 hours study. This would make for 8 - 10 hour days (but when you're not travelling anywhere and saving that time, I don't consider this to be onerous or difficult to achieve if you are taking your work seriously).

Then you have one or two days a week where you work on developing other poker variants. Now, in your situation playing FR, this could be a day playing SH with an allocated portion of your BR. It might be playing Sunday MTTs and STTs. Maybe PLO or Stud8 or whatever. You study for two hours prior and play for however long you feel like it (or maybe not at all, just so long as you study). And if you feel a bit burnt out, then take a couple of days off.

Anyways, sorry for rambling along in here.. just a few thoughts that might be of some use. Or not.

I'm saying there's no future to rakeback whoring i.e. it's unsustainable, it's super high variance, you don't get better and to take IPoker as an example it's teeming with breakeven regs who win only 'cause of the insane rakeback that is handed out.

Originally posted by TerrorBlade
I'm saying there's no future to rakeback whoring i.e. it's unsustainable, it's super high variance, you don't get better and to take IPoker as an example it's teeming with breakeven regs who win only 'cause of the insane rakeback that is handed out.

So, assuming the rackback whores are here to stay for the medium term, are we better off honing our FL low/mid stakes games to maximise WR or all moving to NL en masse?

Possibly the answer to this question = 42.

That's up to you to decide. Opal is our experiment I know that when I try other games I'm always wanting to go back to FL just cause I like playing it more!

You could try Mixing your game between FL SH/HU playing a mix of both there are a lot of bad players playing FLHU and you can sustain some lovely winrates atleast at the limits i took shots at like 2/4 & 3/6 though rake is really high at these low limits

Your second option is to start playing 7game, HORSE or a variation of it that includes FLHE,,, because from my experince the FLHE/FLO8 play is the weakest of most players because they are usually stud players.

Wish you the best of luck in what ever you choose