[Closed] AJ 2-pair on Flop, but much action (0.10/0.20 PP)

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Last Post by _Anonymous_ 20 years ago

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_Anonymous_

29.06.2006, 21:49 0

Hi,

I got this hand against a player I didn't know very well and didn't have any reads.

Party Poker 0.10/0.20 Hold'em (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Preflop: BlackFlush is UTG+1 with J, A.
1 fold, BlackFlush raises, 5 folds, SB 3-bets, 1 fold, BlackFlush calls.

Flop: (7 SB) 9, J, A (2 players)
SB bets, BlackFlush raises, SB 3-bets, BlackFlush caps, SB calls.

Turn: (7.50 BB) 4 (2 players)
SB bets, BlackFlush calls.

River: (9.50 BB) 7 (2 players)
SB bets, BlackFlush calls.

Final Pot: 11.50 BB

The action on the flop (and pre-flop also) made me defensive and let me just call down to the river. I investet to much to just fold top 2-pair, but wasn't really sure about doing the right. Maybe some of you guys can tell me their thoughts about the hand.

Thanks,
Sebastian

1 reply

_Anonymous_

30.06.2006, 03:04 0

Personally I'd raise the river... for value

This villain is representing a high PP/AK with his pf raise and flop actions, and AK/AA/JJ with his turn donk bet.

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 19.9859 % 19.99% 00.00% { AA, JJ, AKs, AKo }
Hand 2: 80.0141 % 80.01% 00.00% { AhJd }

You have the third nuts, and a pretty decent equity edge against the major hands he could be holding. But let's take the .1/.2 limit for what it's worth, and include the other possible hands a donk could be holding:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 31.9906 % 31.99% 00.00% { JJ+, AJs+, AKo }
Hand 2: 68.0094 % 68.01% 00.00% { AhJd }

I think we can both agree that TT is out of the question, but the key is, the diamond on the river pretty much screwed over the near nuts he possibly held on the flop. If he had AA or JJ, he's done to your flush. He would have had to have had (as awkward as that sounds) AxKd or KxKd. You make an extra bet here pretty much 80% of the time. The only thing you have to worry about is the crazy monkey tilt he's going to be on after his aces got cracked by a runner runner flush.