I think that poker really becomes a game of luck is in the late stages of the tournaments (like top 3 players in a field of 1000). ICM can of course tell you what to do to have an edge, but you will be in this position very rarely and if you get unlucky the difference between payouts is huge.
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thats true.. but to even be able to get that far you have to have gotten good cards or very lucky.
well 1000 isn't even that much. but in fields of 3k+ you have to get the cards to win. Sometimes you get sucked out and then its over although you didn't make a mistake.
Originally posted by Hahaownedlolz
No matter how you look at it poker is not 100% skill.In the long term good players earn money but that doesn't mean its 100% skill..
(Since for example when you have top pair you will always be outkicked, when you have a straight the other person always has a flush. when you have a full house they always have quads. Since there is no luck factor. your saying that if thats the case everytime a good player can still make money. Its extremely unlikely probably even less likely then winning the lottery. but if its 100% skill it shouldn't matter)
Okay, you say coolers are an example of luck but really everything that happens is "expected" in the statistical sense. Because an outcome is less likely that another doesn't mean that someone "got lucky" by it occuring, this is going to lead to HUGE tilt if you have this mindset.
What I mean is 72o sucking out AA is a completely expected outcome 20% of the time & same with quads over fullhouse (a much lower %) but we feel an irrational "i dont deserve to lose with this hand" feeling about it which is why people think others got "lucky" (yet feel great and scoop the money in without a second thought if the positions are reversed).
Another thing about coolers is that they're hands where there's no reciprocality difference. By that I mean if the cards were switched the money would have most likely gone in anyway so no money changes hands in that spot.
EDIT: And of course you have to run above expectation to win a single tournament, if you have a 20% tournament cash-rate then to cash in a tournament you will finish out of the money in 4 others.
what do you think about that:
the less you rely on luck, the bigger your profit in the long run.
just a question that came up to my mind couple weeks ago..
Originally posted by staicu74
Why do poker players whose gameplay is not profitable on the long term still survive in the poker business..
Because they redeposit
I think your missing a great point of the game
MTTs Cash and a 9pplSNG
this are 3 very different tipes of the game
when the luck factor in very different in one another.
I gess the most skill game is mtts play
with field of more then 180ppl
and with buy-in of 20$ minimum
i think no donky will win those never.
The skill is a min 70%
you cant and problly never will see a fish win this tourny
no matter how lucky he will be
the skill of all levels of blinds is something you have to
understand and that is skill m8s
the big mtts 10k ppl+
have a hugh dunks but i cant see one reaching to 100th place or better
cash game: if possible and and i saw it that a total fish
get in a nl50 with 20$ and go out with 150$
in a 1tableSNG you can expect a total fish to win 1st
in even a 109$ sng...
So every game and his luck factor.
Originally posted by ihufa
u sound like a wanker
how about addressing fellow community members a bit more respectfully?
Originally posted by Hahaownedlolz
No matter how you look at it poker is not 100% skill.In the long term good players earn money but that doesn't mean its 100% skill..
(Since for example when you have top pair you will always be outkicked, when you have a straight the other person always has a flush. when you have a full house they always have quads. Since there is no luck factor. your saying that if thats the case everytime a good player can still make money. Its extremely unlikely probably even less likely then winning the lottery. but if its 100% skill it shouldn't matter)
You know part of the skill is folding hands... thats like more then half of the game. People tend to forget that and go... boohoo he had a higher flush.. boo he outkicked me. Well yeah great, you made a mistake.. don't call that luck, its just bad play imo and occasionally a cooler.
Oh and bad players survive by re-depositing.