Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $2(BB) Replayer
SB ($51.40)
BB ($200)
UTG ($218)
UTG+1 ($64.35)
UTG+2 ($209)
MP1 ($105)
MP2 ($48.70)
Hero ($37)
BTN ($88.05)
Dealt to Hero Q♣ Q♠
UTG raises to $6, UTG+1 calls $6, fold, fold, MP2 raises to $48.70 (AI), fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold
MP2 wins $21
UTG is 14/9, (EP)raise 1st 8%/
UTG1 is a 30/21 fish
MP2 is a 13/12 short stack, 6% avg 3bet
If the UTG raiser wasn't such a TAG I'd have called, but I convinced myself not to on the spot. Though afterwards as I did some calculations it seemed like a +EV spot, even though it might be marginal;
What do you think?
My calculations were:
FE (when UTG folds) = 87%, only calls KK+
EQ against MP2's range (JJ+, AK) = 47.4%
EV= 0.87 (0.473 * 86 - 37) + 0.13 (0.158 * 117 - 37)
EV= 3,19 - 2,4 = +0,79
it's pretty marginal, but maybe we could expect MP2 to be a little looser here and the fish being in the hand might add some extra money if he decides to call.
