[Closed] SSS winrates and swings

Originally posted by THeGaME23
... And with rakeback im doing nicely. As long as you dont tilt SSS is nicely profitable.

Yeah, sometimes I feel like I just waste all my profits going on tilt. Then I get my rakeback and I'm back to even. It's a vicious cycle that I can't quite seem to break. Thank God for rakeback, I'd probably be broke right now without it.

I've been thinking, maybe I should wait until I've played a certain number of hands before challenging NL50. I played something like 30k hands at NL10 before moving up. I haven't even played 20k at NL25 yet. How many should I play first?

hi there,

how do u calculate your own BB/100H ?

@cutegoldfish BB won / (number of hands/100) I guess... or buy yourself Hold'em Manager or Pokertracker

I am now playing NL25 SSS as well and... tilt is really becoming the 11th player at the table for me... It's the amount of the hands played - under 5% I guess and if you are coinflipping and losing about 30-50% of those, and then not getting paid at all in another 15-25%, it's just taking the fun out of the game I want to get back to BSS in a lower limit as soon as I redeem my bonus in everest, but that's several weeks from now. I dream about 3-4 BB/100... I'm running at -7 BB/100 for 3.5k hands and am about 7-8 BI below EV. Hopefully the graphs are going to even out in the next 7-8k hands.

It's just a random rant... I still have to improve my game a lot and fight tilt so this SSS experience might be useful for me. Still I was used to compensating with well played hands (that are also getting payed off well) for my mistakes in BSS at NL2 and NL5. And in SSS I am never too sure if I'm gonna win the hand even with AA vs 22 when he called an AI pf

Originally posted by Killroan
you are coinflipping and losing about 30-50% of those, and then not getting paid at all in another 15-25%, it's just taking the fun out of the game

I've never had such good luck where I'm losing 30-50% of coinflips. If you're losing 50% of coinflips and not getting paid in 15-25% of your other hands you should be making a ton of profit. Maybe I misunderstood your numbers but looks like there's other parts of your game that should be reviewed. If you tilt when you're winning that much with SSS you definitely should play BSS. What do your VPIP/PFR/WTS numbers look like? I'm running 27 BI below EV now since my downswing ended. I was at almost 60 BI below EV. If I'm winning 50% of coinflips and getting paid off in 5% of hands I'm winning at around 8bb/100. My VPIP 9.5/PFR 6.5/WTS 32. Maybe you're playing way too many hands.

Good Luck

Heyy :)) Thanks for the response since a discussion would be useful for me (I'm new to this strat, got 5,5k hands and you have more experience).

My numbers were merely random or just what mathematics suggests. I'm playing at VPIP/PFR/WSD 7,5/6,6/33,5 at SSSNL25. I'm playing basic SSS, I don't even steal (don't know anything on the right moments,etc., so some suggestions could help). What I was saying was - I'm playing/raising about 6-7% of my hands. With 15-25% of those I'm not getting anywhere - I'm BB with AA and it's folded to me... Or I just raise and get a few blinds (not so bad but still...). Now I'm left with about 80% playable hands that actually get some action. Out of the 7% I play, this would be 5% of all hands dealt.

I don't know a way to see how many coinflips I'm winning, but mathematics suggests that in a coinflip situation I would be either 5% ahead, leaving me with 55% to win the hand or 5% behind, thus having 45% to win. If both options occurred at the same frequency I would have 50% on the average for a coinflip.

Even when I'm clearly ahead I get sucked out sometimes and it's absolutely frustrating, since all my discipline folding hands doesn't pay out... Now that's where tilt comes into the picture and I start calling check/raises after I placed my cbet. So far that's the greatest leak I've found in my game and I will be working to fix it (and the tilt also). Still I would love to follow some other advises you could give me, especially on the stealing. Now I'm starting off a session and hopefully will achieve something today.

Good luck to you too

P.S. I was at work yesterday and didn't have my stats, so I kinda lied to you... after my previous session, I climbed up from -7bb/100 to -1,5/100 and my negative stat is due to tilt probably, but still...

Hi Killroan

okay I completely misunderstood the numbers you quoted. Your stats look pretty good for basic SSS. You may be running into some bad luck and that is the fastest way to tilt. I found that before I started multitabling boredom also really hurt my game. I had a bit of a tough time when I switched to NL25 because I wasn't getting as much action. This was because of the greater number of regulars and more difficult table selection. I was playing VPIP 6.0/PFR 5.5 at NL10 which worked great. Since I've added a range that I limp in with I'm playing more hands which costs me a bit but I'm getting more action and more double ups.

If you're playing NL25 or lower I would really only add a little light stealing, the rare re-steal, and some set mining with small pairs. Other than those few "moves" basic strategy seems pretty successful. You will definitely need a HUD to pick your spots and review your sessions. Try to stop one leak at a time. I was trying to hard to play better and I got worse. I took a step backward and reverted to basic strategy. Then I just worked at my freeplay situations, then small pairs. Right now my focus is on AK coinflip situations. I would recommend PT3, the filters graphs and stats make learning much faster.

Good luck

Thanks for the advise mate. Today's session was actually good so I'm running positive. Hopefully SSS will work out for me long enough :))

Good Luck at the tables

Hi everyone.

Just a quick update. Upon further review of my play I've come to the conclusion that I positively suck at poker! I'm happy I've recognized this before it was too late. I'm at a negative winrate at NL25 which I have been blaming on a downswing. I did go through a downswing but if I had been playing well I could be break even or a little bit positive. Some of my leaks that I thought I had fixed have found there way back into my game. Tilt was also a big factor, that's the only way I could have lost stacks with garbage hands. Anyways, when going through a downswing I think it's really important to review one's play in greater detail.

I was really down on myself yesterday after seeing this. I felt really stupid and thought about dropping a limit. I think the best route for me is to stick with it and try to improve. When I become profitable at this limit maybe I'll move up.

Cheers

PS. - Anyone who has read my "advice" may want to disregard it. Sorry if it cost you.

I think this is a positive step forward, you have noted something about your play that is costing you and you are putting messures in place to correct it.

A pro once said to me if you are having a hard time take a few more seconds on each of your decisions even if its a simple fold. Try to work out what the villan is telling you with his bets and position, you will usually be round about right.

@lennonac - Thanks, I do actually feel pretty positive now. I feel like I can start winning again. That's very good advice, I've actually started playing less tables so that I can give more thought to my hands and avoid trouble spots.

Hey there,

I have the same problem. Currently I am playing on the stars NL10, to this day I have played around 60K hands and my win rate is 0.2BB. I feel like AA vs JJ is a coinflip for me. I play almost advanced SSS with stats, but still people at stars do not call much of a gamble hands and thus the flips are always close. I believe that I do not play badly and I do not tilt, but the results are not comming.

Daily swings are +- 6 to 10 BI.

Should I change a site? Should I move up in a limit?