[Closed] what when the opponent is not aware of ICM?

You can use SNGWizard to review your plays after and see if your playing +EV just be sure to adjust other players ranges.
I dont think M factor is that important in SNGs I usually just use #of BBs ( but when I played it was on FT where there are no antes, i know for a fact that stars has them don't know if this is a factor)

BTW, what do you think about this article?

http://www.sitandgoplanet.com/sitandgo/sng_bubble/Winning_Turbo_Strategy.html

The article's bollocks. Whether he has a point or not, it's not backed up with anything other than a joyful fairytale about the time he called a shove with crap cards and won. Where's the hard analysis? What's he basing his theory on?

Originally posted by wquinn636
The article's bollocks. Whether he has a point or not, it's not backed up with anything other than a joyful fairytale about the time he called a shove with crap cards and won. Where's the hard analysis? What's he basing his theory on?

Those were my initial thoughts too, until I looked the guy up on sharkscope...

I read this article some time ago and my conclusions are that by making those kind of calls you are losing money simple as that. Sometimes on the bubble i will call a REG in the sb with like an A6o but not always. Some regs know i will do this and dont push on me as often.

Personally I love this article and I wish more people had read it. The explanation doesn't even add up mathematically, and if people start making those calls on a regular basis it can only mean more profit for us.

Come to think of it, I think I just might create my own little poker strategy site where I explain how calling all-in with any draw is always profitable in cash games, and that 54s has about 46% equity against AA. Maybe throw some fancy graphs to "prove" my theory and voila, a brand new strategy site that teaches people to "properly adjust" to the probabilities of online poker.

Originally posted by nafar84

Originally posted by wquinn636
The article's bollocks. Whether he has a point or not, it's not backed up with anything other than a joyful fairytale about the time he called a shove with crap cards and won. Where's the hard analysis? What's he basing his theory on?

Those were my initial thoughts too, until I looked the guy up on sharkscope...

It doesn't matter whether he's right or not though, it's still a horrid article. It's a bit like writing an article saying David Beckham's good at football because you saw him score a penalty once. Whether he actually is good at football or not is irrelevant to the fact that you're talking absolute bollocks.

Originally posted by lennonac
Sometimes on the bubble i will call a REG in the sb with like an A6o but not always. Some regs know i will do this and dont push on me as often.

This is the only reason to make loose calls IMO, when you have a reg who likes to abuse you have to make some image calls, and then it forces him to change his game. We dont expect to make a profit with the call in the short term but in the long term its +ev, no?

To all those dissing this article: some food for thought

98 suited is better than a random hand

98 offsuit has 48% equity against a random hand

Good regulars push 100% or close to it in bubble situations

You are calling 1600 to win 2800 - VERY CLOSE TO 2 to 1 ODDS!!!!

98o was probably a correct call

noclaninator, if it was a cash game and a regular was pushing 100% then you would call on the BB with 98 but this isn't a cash game and getting a 50% chance to double your stack in that spot isn't +EV$ even tho it's EV+ chips

What he uses for explenation is a bit of Future game theory which is an effective addon to the ICM modell. Here you try to determine how the game looks within a few hands or like a few runds ahead.
This makes -$EV pushes the correct move in certain situations just as he talks about. We want to do something before our fold equity is completely gone, and it's therefore worth taking a risk now and have a playable stack than to fold now and have to hope for a miracle hand later on.

About his play; i myself often prefer pushing before calling for the simple reason that even if you push into 3-4 people you might have some fold equity with 4BB if they all have crap hands.
If you call you are forced to win a showdown 100% of the times.
But sometimes it's ofc more value in waiting for the blinds, but as a standard rule i look for pushes before i get to short to be able to pass the blinds with fold equity.

If the guys doesn't know ICM and calls loose you are both losing equity. Even the guy with the better showdown hand who is more likely to win loses equity. Much less than the caller with the worse hands but is still losing in the long run.