[Closed] 9 seated S&G varriance (biggest BI & no# of tournements downswing?)

Originally posted by cyzo

Originally posted by miskokvo
cyzo ... try to think ... watch boku87 chalange and you will see it that downer is hugely afected by number of tables

I have no need to expend effort on thought. I am aware of Boku's challenge and still come to the conclusion that the number of tables played at one time cannot be correlated to the size of a downswing. Anyone playing the number of sngs he played, one at a time, with ~his ROI could hit a similar downswing.

I do not think that you can generalize and say that a player who plays more tables at once is more apt to make unwarranted mistakes, therefore lowering his ROI and leading to a larger downswing. If I can get as high an ROI playing sets of 30 as some guy who plays sets of 5 24 hours a day, and we both put in the same number throughout the course of a month, I would not be willing to bet that I would, on average, have larger downswings. Variance and EV exhibit memorylessness. It does not matter when they are played as long as the same number are put in.

Mass grinders have more variance because of the extreme ABC play

more variance --> higher chance for big downswings
makes sence no?

No, I am speaking of this:

Guy A plays 20 tables at a time for 10 hours for 200 games 5% ROI.
Guy B plays 4 tables at a time for 50 hours for 200 games 5% ROI.

I would argue that the bold portions affect the average size of a downswing.
Miskokvo, would you argue that the underlined portions affect the average size of a downswing>

Can you really conclude that the underlined portions affect the size of a downswing when the player still has the same ROI and sample size?

Originally posted by viewer88
Mass grinders have more variance because of the extreme ABC play

more variance --> higher chance for big downswings
makes sence no?

Are you sure that ABC play is more variance? Could it not possibly be less variance, given the same ROI?

you use the same strategy vs. every villain, so there are more unknown factors :: lower ROI and more variance

I'm not sure about it really, always thought it works that way though

Same ROI. Assume that. Still more variance, or does non-ABC poker have more variance?

Meh I give up, don't have a clue.. who cares really

Here's my point in the matter. I play 3-4 tables at once, and I find my downswings to be minimal. I feel that playing ABC poker on 20 tables can limit the small edges you get from playing less tables and being able to make occasional reads on opponents. I don't disagree that the ROI has an important influence on this, but I will say that someone who makes 5% ROI 20 tabling is more likely to be a better player than someone who makes 5% ROI 4 tabling, because they aren't making any more money with the 'extra' information they are getting.

You can still pick up patterns and habbits of specific opponents whilst mass multi-tabling...just you wont pick up as much as you arnt concerntrating as much on 1 specific table. But generally though aswell the players playing more tables are more experienced than those who play less thus they can get away with been less observant.

Why do you think it has any sort of relevance how many tables you play? The sng's you play are independent events. The fact that you're ROI should be a little smaller is another thing.

20$ and a few 30$ 9 man regular sng's and i'm down from the maximum i've seen in my account 1.1k. I don't think it's tilt even though there may be some moves i don't normally do (but not -EV or big time -EV in my opinion).

I'm thinking it might be a big upswing+a big downswing...

played > 3k games.

had i think 3x 25-30BI downers

none larger

played > 3k games. had i think 3x 25-30BI downers none larger

Wish i could say that. Anyway, i've seen sometimes in videos and coachings expressions like "i don't do this because it will only boost the variance".

Really? Where can i find out more?

@andreibalint:
mh i don´t think that there is an article or something about that but basically it´s all about avoiding very, very close (maybe breakeven)spots. an extreme example would be on the bubble with one guy down to 1bb, another quite short stack and two bigstacks in the blinds, SB pushs atc (you know that) and sngwiz tells you that you can make a +EV call with 99/TT (and let´s assume you know that as well) from the BB. now let´s assume that you actually do have exactly this hand and the EV would be something like +0.01... you should probably fold :P. in most sngs you will have some edge when you keep on playing and you might go on tilt if his T3o runs you over and you bubble + you never can be 100% sure that he is actually pushing atc.

@topic:
i think i played like 18-20k sngs.
sickest down:
ongame, 20-23tabling, 22s-54s, avg buyin like 35$ maybe?

the difference between the top and bottom line is 4k$ -> a little bit over 100BI down -.-
the tubos at ongame are very fast though so i guess that´s kinda standard
god bless 80% rakeback

my new year started kinda nice as well. i´m really used to like 40-50 buy in swings what why do they always have to happen when i cashed out a pretty big amount and start to rebuild my bankroll?

avg. stake 28$. thank god this didn´t happen at the 60s -.-

Originally posted by cyzo

..and size of downswing also depends of how many tables you play ...

This makes no sense to me. How is playing 20 sngs in 2 hours different than playing 20 sngs in 10 hours.

I think this is dependent on the reason for the downswing, if the downswing is soley due to variance the swings won't be any different. If the downswing is caused by tilt then a mass multitabler will more than likely have a larger downswing. In reality it is usally a combination of both elements, ie bad beats cause tilt which cause bad play etc.

Also, the graphs above by Unam1337obviously assume that you continue to play your A game through the downswing, at the very least they could be used to determine if tilt is causing downswings. For example if you are having frequent 50BI swings maybe you need to focus on the mental aspect of the game.