I went through a long stretch of this type of shit a while back, and what kept me sane was
opening up HEM and looking up all my top hands by % won. I ended up seeing that no
matter how convinced I was that I was constantly getting sucked out on by retarded plays,
My top hands in %of winning the pot when playing with them were the big boys, and
the rank followed suit as it should.
Made me feel better and made it much easier to play on.
This one happened right now.. What can I do here?
Ok, here's my answer, and you may not like it: "don't expect to win every hand you play".
In that hand, you have a fish calling with 89s. That's great for you. He called your pfr with a weak drawing hand and your cbet with tpnk and he's almost always going broke in that spot. And I don't think he ever folds to your push even if the turn doesn't give him trips.
So, just tell yourself that this player is going to give you all his chips the 96% of the time that he doesn't hit on the the turn. And players like him are what make these games beatable. Make a note on him, don't beat yourself up for playing the hand well and just accept that letting him get the chips 4% of the time means he'll make you money all the other times. If fish never got lucky they'd never play. And we'd be out of business.
So, however horrid it is when we go through periods when the fish are lucking out on us, you have to find a way to be happy - yes, happy - that they're willing to try their luck becuase it's where our profit comes from.
we all go through rough patches gun. keep reviewing your games and talking to other players. lots of us SnG ps.com players regularly chat on skype/set up sweats etc... so i suggest you get ur ass into gear and join us 
Originally posted by lessthanthreee
we all go through rough patches gun. keep reviewing your games and talking to other players. lots of us SnG ps.com players regularly chat on skype/set up sweats etc... so i suggest you get ur ass into gear and join usYeah probably not a bad idea, I think I really need some confidence in my game so having a chat with you guys could help. Hopefully I'll talk to you guys on there soon.
After losing money in 13 out of 14 sessions I finally had a winning session then I get hit by variance again. Not the usual downswing when I can't pick which random shit hand some donk decides to play but the variance where I am actually ahead when I get the money in. In 10 games I got all of these suckouts below. And to add to that I also got a couple of coolers which of course I didn't suck out on. This is not all of them either, there were plenty of other times when I had the better side of a coinflip (and lost) as well as decent aces losing to ace rag. After 10 games I was about 8 BI below EV, yay. Hopefully my luck will turn around soon and I can grind my way out of this slump.
No Limit Holdem Tournament
4 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
$33 + $3 Sit & Go (Turbo)
Stacks:
CO (3,980)
Hero (1,585)
SB (5,765)
BB (2,170)
Blinds: 150/300
Pre-Flop: (450, 4 players) Hero is BTN K♥ K♣
CO raises to 750, Hero goes all-in 1,585, 2 folds, CO calls 835
Flop: J♦ 4♦ 4♣ (3,620, 2 players, 1 all-in)
Turn: J♠ (3,620, 2 players, 1 all-in)
River: 7♦ (3,620, 2 players, 1 all-in)
Final Pot: 3,620
Hero shows two pair, Kings and Jacks
K♥ K♣
CO shows a full house, Sevens full of Jacks
7♠ 7♥
CO wins 3,620 (net +2,035)
Hero lost 1,585
No Limit Holdem Tournament
8 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
$33 + $3 Sit & Go (Turbo)
Stacks:
UTG (1,467)
UTG+1 (795)
MP1 (1,440)
MP2 (2,000)
Hero (2,158)
BTN (1,310)
SB (1,225)
BB (3,105)
Blinds: 40/80
Pre-Flop: (120, 8 players) Hero is CO A♦ A♣
2 folds, MP1 raises to 320, MP2 calls 320, Hero raises to 1,280, 3 folds, MP1 calls 960, MP2 calls 960
Flop: 6♠ 3♠ 10:spade: (3,960, 3 players)
MP1 goes all-in 160, MP2 calls 160, Hero goes all-in 878, MP2 goes all-in 560
Turn: K♣ (5,718, 3 players, 3 all-in)
River: J♠ (5,718, 3 players, 3 all-in)
Final Pot: 5,718
MP1 shows a flush, King high
K♠ Q♥
MP2 shows a flush, Ace high
Q♣ A♠
Hero shows a pair of Aces
A♦ A♣
MP2 wins 5,560 (net +3,560)
Hero collects 158 (net -2,000)
MP1 lost 1,440
No Limit Holdem Tournament
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
$33 + $3 Sit & Go (Turbo)
Stacks:
UTG (2,900)
UTG+1 (1,440)
CO (1,575)
BTN (1,400)
Hero (1,345)
BB (4,840)
Blinds: 25/50
Pre-Flop: (75, 6 players) Hero is SB K♣ K♥
3 folds, BTN raises to 175, Hero raises to 450, 1 fold, BTN goes all-in 1,400, Hero goes all-in 895
Flop: 7♦ Q♠ 2♣ (2,795, 2 players, 2 all-in)
Turn: J♦ (2,795, 2 players, 2 all-in)
River: A♥ (2,795, 2 players, 2 all-in)
Final Pot: 2,795
BTN shows two pair, Aces and Queens
A♦ Q♣
Hero shows a pair of Kings
K♣ K♥
BTN wins 2,795 (net +1,395)
Hero lost 1,345
No Limit Holdem Tournament
8 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
$33 + $3 Sit & Go (Turbo)
Stacks:
UTG (1,410)
UTG+1 (3,165)
MP1 (1,500)
MP2 (1,455)
Hero (1,455)
BTN (1,495)
SB (1,460)
BB (1,560)
Blinds: 20/40
Pre-Flop: (60, 8 players) Hero is CO A♣ A♥
UTG raises to 160, 3 folds, Hero raises to 480, 3 folds, UTG goes all-in 1,410, Hero calls 930
Flop: J♦ K♠ 3♣ (2,880, 2 players, 1 all-in)
Turn: K♥ (2,880, 2 players, 1 all-in)
River: 4♣ (2,880, 2 players, 1 all-in)
Final Pot: 2,880
Hero shows two pair, Aces and Kings
A♣ A♥
UTG shows four of a kind, Kings
K♦ K♣
UTG wins 2,880 (net +1,470)
Hero lost 1,410
No Limit Holdem Tournament
8 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
$33 + $3 Sit & Go (Turbo)
Stacks:
UTG (1,690)
UTG+1 (890)
MP1 (2,335)
Hero (1,305)
CO (3,280)
BTN (1,470)
SB (1,285)
BB (1,245)
Blinds: 50/100
Pre-Flop: (150, 8 players) Hero is MP2 J♥ J♠
1 fold, UTG+1 goes all-in 890, 1 fold, Hero goes all-in 1,305, 4 folds
Flop: 6♦ Q♥ A♠ (2,345, 2 players, 2 all-in)
Turn: 5♥ (2,345, 2 players, 2 all-in)
River: K♥ (2,345, 2 players, 2 all-in)
Final Pot: 2,345
UTG+1 shows three of a kind, Fives
5♠ 5♣
Hero shows a pair of Jacks
J♥ J♠
UTG+1 wins 1,930 (net +1,040)
Hero collects 415 (net -890)
ouch looks like you are having it rough with them beats gl getting out of your downswing mate.
Ok, another terrible session so I've decided I need a break from SnGs. Every session I either end up on the wrong side of variance or I play badly (can't read players) or am generally in the wrong mindset. Anyway, I've play a few hands of NL10 BSS (Rush Poker) and it seems pretty easy, after 3K hands I'm at 16BB/100 which I'm not sure is good but I'm sure someone can tell me. See how that goes after another 10K hands and then I'll decide what to do. At the moment I'm not enjoying poker because it seems that no matter what I do I can't win at this limit. Anyway, here is a graph of my cash game success (no it did not cover my SnG loss for the session).
ur going through a really rough patch gun.
i suggest once again to contact myself,lennonac or tim64 about skype session reviews over team viewer.
i suggest you download skype and contact us. we usually review our games when ever we get the chance.
you are definitely a winner on the 36s so dont give up just because you hit a rough patch.
honestly i think you had a pretty sick run through the limits. variance might be catching up with you finally.
gl
<3
Yeah mate, I agree with lessthan3. Don't let all the hard work on the sngs be p***ed away because of variance.
You have to find the right way to deal with this shi*, whatever variant you play. I'm running like dogturds at the 36s - like 25BI below ev after 800 tourneys, so the sick times hit us all (perhaps you have it worse than this, but you get my point).
And the best way to beat the blues is to analyse your game with guys who are only too willing to help.
Would it help to drop to the $22+2 SnGs for a while? (confidence etc. playing a limit you know you have beaten)
Originally posted by davodka
Would it help to drop to the $22+2 SnGs for a while? (confidence etc. playing a limit you know you have beaten)
Did you say move up to the $55 Sngs? Excellent idea Dave, I'll do it!
Anyway, I've had a serious think about this and decided I'm not letting some useless drunk American morons put me off my game. Nothing against Americans I just assume by the way they play they must be drunk or stupid or both. I've decided to keep swinging and get through this, I want to be above the point where I had my latest downswing by the middle of next month, hopefully that is a reasonable goal. Also, I'll try to jump on Skype, what times are you guys generally on (in FT time since I don't know your timezones other than <3).
Myself and Tim are usually about during UK daytime hours. To be honest my sleep pattern goes round and round so I could be on at any point!
Hope you join us mate
What was that? Move up to $75 super turbos? You are an absolute genius! We'll have to do some live SnGs sometime. I need to find out when/if they are on....
Hey Gun,
To reiterate, I'm running just horribly too - swing by my blog and check out my impressive graph @ 33s, and I am nevertheless 100% confident we will both get there.
Ok, still running bad at this limit, after 1200 games I'm running at -1.1% with my EV around +1%. Anyway, after thinking about it I have decided to go back to STs for a while. This is for a number of reasons. a) I KNOW I have an edge over these players so I'll feel more confident. b) One of the reasons I'm struggling at the moment is because players call with terrible cards and hit the flops in ways that I can't see so I overplay some hands, STs are only push or fold. c) The traffic is much higher during the hours I normally play, atm there are usually only 6 $36 tables running when Im on. I can then get more games per hour (they're also a lot shorter) and increase my $/hr (anything +ve is better than now). d) Since I'll be playing lower limits, probably $14+1 the value of downswings hopefully won't affect me as much.
So hopefully this change will help me become more confident in my poker and eventually I might try again at the 36s, having said all that I might change my mind tomorrow and continue doing my normal thing. I might even keep grinding untill I have the bankroll for even higher $60+ sngs where there will be fewer idiots and I might regain some of my edge, even if it does mean playing against more regs.
Also, cheers for the support guys, I will get my ass on skype soon and have a chat.
Hey mate,
Good to hear you've a positive mindset and gl with the STs - they seem to be the way to go atm and if I wasn't such an old fogie, I'd be doing them too.
One thing you said interests me, that on the $60s there may be less idiots and hence you might have more of an edge.
Well, I may be totally wrong about this but I'm pretty sure the less idiots there there are the less liklihood there is of us having any edge at all. If idiots aren't calling preflop with bad cards, then they're not calling as much period. Thus they aren't getting knocked out so early and we have to start push-folding with more players in the field. And clearly, any time that happens our edge drops.
Hope to catch you on skype soon,
Tim
Originally posted by Tim64
Hey mate,Good to hear you've a positive mindset and gl with the STs - they seem to be the way to go atm and if I wasn't such an old fogie, I'd be doing them too.
One thing you said interests me, that on the $60s there may be less idiots and hence you might have more of an edge.
Well, I may be totally wrong about this but I'm pretty sure the less idiots there there are the less liklihood there is of us having any edge at all. If idiots aren't calling preflop with bad cards, then they're not calling as much period. Thus they aren't getting knocked out so early and we have to start push-folding with more players in the field. And clearly, any time that happens our edge drops.
Hope to catch you on skype soon,
Tim
It is true that regs won't be calling as often with bad cards but when they call it would be much easier to put them on a range of cards. For example if I raise preflop with AQ, flop comes Q73 I won't have to worry about some random donk that called with Q3o. I would personally prefer 4-5 other regs and 3-4 fish at the table instead of 7-8 other agressive fish. I also had a shot at one $55+5 the other day and I felt fairly comfortable but then ended up losing with AK vs KQ AI preflop, the caller I had labeled as a maniac. Personally for about 8-9 BB I would fold KQo vs an MP1 push but I guess I got the money in ahead so its ok. Maybe I'll try again when I have the bankroll.
good luck if you end up playing the supers gun.
remember all your edge in SnGs comes from end game. so if you are fixating on early stage pots where you go broke in standard spots with TPTK and run into some fish who managed to spike 2 pair against you i think you need to re-evaluate how much these pots are actually affecting your equity.
the answer is pretty marginally.
i would much rather play in games with fish who dont understand propper bubble play and calling ranges in high blinds than regs who have a much bigger impact on our equity late stage due to their better knowledge of ICM.
my suggestion would also be to move back to the 24s and increase your tables. review more often to make sure you are not leaking.
were always happy to help. <3
Gun, I in no way want to sound rude but just offer you some advice.
If you are having a problem with losing to people calling you with Q3os on a Q3x board,
this is where your edge is highest. Instead of removing post flop situations all together
from your choice of game, you would benifit much more by improving your post flop game
if you are going to be playing such high limits.
The super turbos are full of people calling with insane cards at all stages of the game.
If the suckouts are bothering you now, beleive you me you will hate poker.
If you are having these types of thoughts riddled with heavy doubts about what your playing
and they are along the lines of more regs = easier games... thats right up there with I should
get more volume to get through the variance without working on my game first or I should
grind this one out.
1200 games is a lot.
I would recommend you just take a small break, and reassess your game when you come back.
Watch some videos of others playing or sweat someone else playing, and you may be able to
see a few leaks, and from there you can have an easier time of picking your own game apart
and come back in full force refreshed and unbothered by the insane shit run.
Reducing your volume and repairing your game should be a priority as well as a mental break to clear
you from the stigma you are having with fish and their ranges.
I am only telling you this from first hand information and experience.
I went through piles and piles of super turbos, and with a - result. Its a bitch on the mind and
it makes for some rotten poker because you can get to the point of fuck this game I dont
even wanna play because I am just going to lose. I mean that by running at a minus over
a large sample size at any type of poker.
Again just some advice I don't mean to sound insulting, I have just been where you are and
this is how I got out of it.
^^ I agree with this 95%. The 5% i'm not sure about is that most of our edge comes from the endgame.
I thought the main reason regs have an edge is that they rarely go out of the tourneys in the early stages - compared to the fish. So, because we are usually - say 75% of the time - still playing once it gets to 6 handed (as opposed to the mathematically 'expected' 66%), we have already increased our $ equity significantly from the 9 handed situation. I may very well be wrong about this - it's happened before
