Never Ending Downswing: Why I should be a winning player

Ok so I moved from 6-handed to 10-handed 3.4 $ SnG's, to see how it goes.

2 days ago I won 93$ from 56 of those, having a bit of luck, I admit.
On 1 table I even sucked out on them 2 times (AT vs AQ, TT vs JJ).
Anyway...that is ~50% ROI for that day.

And then yesterday...same ol', same ol'...
In 56 games I lost 86$, around -45% ROI...so here are some highlights:

-Lost half of my dominating hands, instead of like, 75%.
-Some Idiot "trapping" me with flush draw when I had top pair (Queens) top kicker, and then hitting the flush of coarse.
-Some Moron calling my hefty bets (I had QQ) with pair of deuces, and when we went all in he rivers a deuce.
-I went all in preflop with AQ vs A2. Flop is 2JJ, turn is 2, river J, we split the pot. And he called me a lucky motherfucker.
-I had flush 12 times, at 4 of those they had a full house, and at 1 the quads.
-I had Ace high full house on the river, dude just checked so far (board was A66QA), we go all in and he shows 66. That was one of the very rare cases where I was actually outplayed. Hat's off. I'm actually honored to encounter someone whose not an idiot, on these tables.
-Went all in with KK vs K9, If I win I'd have 8000 chips 4-handed, which is around half the table chips (which as well means, raping time is nigh). Anyways, flop is 949.
-Went all in with AA vs QQ, If I'd win I'd have 9000 chips and raping the table 4-handed. Then he of coarse hits his Q.

-Blinds are 25/30, I raise to 95 in the early position with AA, next guy reraises to 270, and 3 more guys call, it's my turn to act (we all got ~1500 chips). I go all in, and ALL 4 OF THEM CALL. My fucking god, how stupid can you be? And what was I going against? my A :diamond:A vs Q :spade:T vs K :diamond:J vs T :spade:T vs 7 :diamond:7
In that order.
So first QT called an all in, then KJ called against 2 all ins, then TT called against 3, and at the end 77 called against 4 all ins.
All brilliant displays of poker.
At the end 77 won, and thankfully he was lower then me so I won the side-pot and ended up with more chips then before the hand started.

Etc, etc...I could go like this whole day.

At SnG Wizard quiz I'm up to these %:
-98.6% on Easy
-95.4% on Average
-86.2% on Hard
That's the last 1000 of each, with the addition that a few of those doesn't look right.
For example: I shouldn't push with anything 3 handed from CU, when other two have 2 BB left.
And some more like: UTG raises (18% PFR), MP2 goes all in (around 3xUTG's raise), and then I should go all in in the BB with K9 suited having 9BB's.
That doesn't look right.

In total I may have done tens of thousands of each (except the Easy ones, because they are boring), and I'm doing the same in the online poker games. So shouldn't I win some money?

Any explanation? How much longer should I take shit like that over and over (add like 500 more "and over") again? Maybe after my hair is whole gray, and I'm dead from an heart attack? Perhaps then.

So the day has finally come...I'm now officially broke on JokerStars.

Yesterday I won 45$ (doubling my remaining bankroll), and then today I lost everything (90$), by playing 3.25$ 6-man and 3.4$ 10-man SnG's.

It is needless to say how I fucking lost 90$ by playing 3's, in one day...while making the right decision 95%+ of the time (says the SnG Wizard).

Anyways, I got a good friend of mine come over and watch me play for 4+ hours, on 2 occasions. He is Supernova on Stars, with 6% ROI playing 50$ ones (played around 4.500 of those).

So...I won't get into details about what he saw, it would take me whole night...but basically he said I'm not doing right here and there, maybe a few mistakes per session of 8 SnG's. And every time some really ridiculous thing happens, I'm bursting in laughter, while he's watching the screen with wide eyes saying "What the fuck was that?". If you visualized that last sentence, visualize it 50 times more in those 2 days.
He went mute when I said "That's happening for 7 months bro, 15.000 SnG's and DoN's"

All in all, he confirmed to me that I'm not crazy/delusional etc.
PokerStars is in fact rigged piece of shit, period.

I know no one here believes me, so I'm ready to give my account with 100$ on it to some poor soul so he can see for himself.

If you (over some bigger number of SnG's, let's say 3000) manage to sustain your ROI same as on the other site your playing at, I'm going to sell my kidney on the black market and give you the money.
Don't be too much hopeful though, because the likeliness is that you'll end up in tears after 10 days, giving me back the account with a juicy "Fuck You!".

So tomorrow I'm moving to LuckyAce, they got a nice Reload Bonus for me to clear. In a 2-3 months I'll be writing in the "Our Success" section.

PS: Here's one forum thread I found about today, which I found really interesting. http://www.blindbetpoker.com/subfolder/forum/t1101-pokerstars-is-rigged.html
I didn't read it all but it's basically the same thing I wrote in some previous posts...they first win some money for a month or two, then all goes to hell. Enjoy!

PS: Kept track of the hands where opponent had 4 cards of the same color on the flop. From last 100 hands like that, they hit the flush on 83 of those.

Originally posted by NenadNacevic

PS: Here's one forum thread I found about today, which I found really interesting. http://www.blindbetpoker.com/subfolder/forum/t1101-pokerstars-is-rigged.html
I didn't read it all but it's basically the same thing I wrote in some previous posts...they first win some money for a month or two, then all goes to hell. Enjoy!

that website is 2+2 for fishes LOL

anyways, i wanted 2 give u a msg before u quit here telling you DoN's are impossible to make a higher Roi then 5%, and afford little to no skill to play in, and you should switch to 6max and change your game. You definatly learned alot from the DoN's, your mistake was that you played them too long, and you shouldve changed the games when u still had money, instead of tilting your whole BR.

Regards, Zephyr

that website is 2+2 for fishes LOL

Heh wouldn't know, I just stumbled upon it last night...some of them sounded like they know what they're talking about though...

Anyways, I did drop DoN's and played around 2000+ SnG's since then.
(I didn't tilt anything away btw)

Moved today to LuckyAce so we'll see how it goes...

Nenade, I'm playing HU SNG and I have even bigger negative experience with variance. Today I lost 20 out of 25 all ins in which I was 65+% favourite - that means lost 80% instead of 35%. All in all on 5000 HU SNG 11$ according to math I should have made 4 times what I did...

And those advices like, work on your playing skills, dont tilt etc. are just ridicilous... If you make correct play 95% of the time (acording to ICM) and variance is killing you then clearly problem is something else and not your playing skills nor tilt...

Can anyone here tell me he's running above EV in the long run in HU SNG ? I think someone like that must be family related to owner's of the poker site he's playing on ...

Answer me this.............

If you idiots really beleive it is rigged why do you continue to play?

While reading this thread, I saw some donkey minded people who know nothing about probabilities and statistics, but enjoy leaving a comment. Fish atitude!!! With such a poor thinking, I wonder how they can still be good at online poker, unless it's not rigged. Or may be they aren't so good. Anyway.

The thread starter stated he played 5500 all ins. Let's round it to 5000. On average, he was ahead 56.9%. He won 52.8%. Soo, in more than 4% of the cases, it was not as expected.

5000*4%=200.

To be ahead means he had more than 50% chance of winning. Let's estimate it with 50%.

The chance of not winnig in those about 200 hands is:

(50%)^200=0.5^200=6,2230152778611417071440640537801e-61 which is less then: 0.7*(10^(-61)).

So between the first 0 and the 7, there are 61 of 0 (zeroes).

Lets say there were a maximum of 100000000000=10^11 people playing poker. He is one of them. So the chance of happening this to these people is:

0.7*(10^(-61))*(10^11)=0.7*(10^(-50))=
=0.000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000007

which is way too improbable.

If the topic starter was not lieing, the site he was playing is almost suerly rigged.

I kind of forgot that I left LuckyAce to go to PokerStars, because of the same downswing.
Damn you reload bonus for tempting me.

Atleast I won 225 $ on 5.000 $ Freeroll, on my first day there.
Ended up 5th from 6.000 people.
Thought to myself "Finally, good start...let it continue that way".
But no, it continued with the downswing.
At least I loose less money here because its first 3 places paid in these 6-man SnG's.

Now I finally decided to take some time and make some hand re-players of my average day, which I had yesterday. Only made it for situations where I'm dominating them aka when they have 2 or 3 outers AND when winning a hand really mattered. I'm not counting hands when I was 300 chips and won an all in which still means nothing. Here we go:

LOST 16:

KK vs AT on flop T63
KK vs AJ on flop 9TJ
QQ vs KQ
K8 vs T8
AA vs 99
AQ vs A4
K4 vs K9 on flop K47, turn 3
88 vs A4
KK vs AT
JJ vs A2
KK vs AT
A3 vs Q3
AK vs KJ
QQ vs K2
JJ vs AJ
AA vs 42 on flop AT3

WON 20:

Which I won't put here because it's useless, you can imagine those above without them hitting their outs.

So, on average, on these hands I was ahead (both lost and won) 75.4% and won just 55.6%.

Now, what happens the other way around, when I get dominated:

LOST 13:

Again, won't type in those...

WON 2:

AT vs KK
A8 vs AA

So, on average, on these hands I was "ahead" (both lost and won) 24.4% and won just 13.3%.

Same thing goes for coinflips, hand of "AQ vs T8" type, etc...any hand... That's my average "bad beat" day, which is the day I most often get.

I'll try to demonstrate, how my poker career looks like, by defining 4 diferent types of days I'm having:

1) Good Day, when I actually get lucky and win more then I should.
Happens 1 in 10 days and I'll symbol it with ♠_evil: so it stands out.
2) Normal Day, (normal by other people's standards at least), where I win as much as I should.
Happens 3 in 10 days and symbol is
3) Bad Beat Day, where happens what I showed above, where I lose roughly 10-15% more hands then I should. Above example is a bit more extreme though.
Happens 4 in 10 Days and symbol is
4) What The Fuck Day, where I lose maybe 15-25% more hands then I should, think I showed one of these somewhere above.
Happens 2 in 10, symbol is ♠_o:

So my day looks something like this:

:heart: :diamond: ♠_evil: ♠_o: :diamond: ♠_o: :heart: ♠_o: ♠_evil: ♠_o:etc.

Normal? I dont think so.
Number of symbols in that row is going over 200, for over 7 months I'm having this. So decide for yourself if that's possible.

And for the end I got a screeny of my SnG Wizard average game:

Around 90% good desitions on average, even without adjusting their ranges, with which it would probably be more then 93-94%.

Am I crazy or should I be a winning player? Because at the moment I'm not.

How many sng's have you played?

Originally posted by MtzkC
While reading this thread, I saw some donkey minded people who know nothing about probabilities and statistics, but enjoy leaving a comment. Fish atitude!!! With such a poor thinking, I wonder how they can still be good at online poker, unless it's not rigged. Or may be they aren't so good. Anyway.

The thread starter stated he played 5500 all ins. Let's round it to 5000. On average, he was ahead 56.9%. He won 52.8%. Soo, in more than 4% of the cases, it was not as expected.

5000*4%=200.

To be ahead means he had more than 50% chance of winning. Let's estimate it with 50%.

The chance of not winnig in those about 200 hands is:

(50%)^200=0.5^200=6,2230152778611417071440640537801e-61 which is less then: 0.7*(10^(-61)).

So between the first 0 and the 7, there are 61 of 0 (zeroes).

Lets say there were a maximum of 100000000000=10^11 people playing poker. He is one of them. So the chance of happening this to these people is:

0.7*(10^(-61))*(10^11)=0.7*(10^(-50))=
=0.000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000007

which is way too improbable.

If the topic starter was not lieing, the site he was playing is almost suerly rigged.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

I'm so glad you came along with your infinite statistics wisdom to clear things up!

Originally posted by MtzkC
While reading this thread, I saw some donkey minded people who know nothing about probabilities and statistics, but enjoy leaving a comment. Fish atitude!!! With such a poor thinking, I wonder how they can still be good at online poker, unless it's not rigged. Or may be they aren't so good. Anyway.

The thread starter stated he played 5500 all ins. Let's round it to 5000. On average, he was ahead 56.9%. He won 52.8%. Soo, in more than 4% of the cases, it was not as expected.

5000*4%=200.

To be ahead means he had more than 50% chance of winning. Let's estimate it with 50%.

The chance of not winnig in those about 200 hands is:

(50%)^200=0.5^200=6,2230152778611417071440640537801e-61 which is less then: 0.7*(10^(-61)).

So between the first 0 and the 7, there are 61 of 0 (zeroes).

Lets say there were a maximum of 100000000000=10^11 people playing poker. He is one of them. So the chance of happening this to these people is:

0.7*(10^(-61))*(10^11)=0.7*(10^(-50))=
=0.000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000007

which is way too improbable.

If the topic starter was not lieing, the site he was playing is almost suerly rigged.

I think it's Grailer's second account. This totally made my day!

Yeah surely he has to be a troll, although kudos for putting that much effort into the post.

I thought only I had a bad weak.. but it seems the random generator has picked more than one of us... this shit that i happening to me the last week i so fucking hilarious that I can't belive it anymore..

Lets start with just a few badbeat hands that made me loose 250$ this week

KK vs. AA -> like 5 times when the flop was just small cards
QQ vs. AA -> like 4 times

99 vs. AA and the flop came AJ9!!!!!!!!
55 vs. AA and the flop came AQ5!!!!!!!
22 vs. 99 and the flop came 972!!!!!!!

98 vs TT .. T 9 8 4 8 .....
AK vs 73 > he called preflop 5BB raise.. the flop 73A
AK vs 68 > he called preflop 5BB raise.. the flop 68A

and so on and so on..

How fucking hilarious can that be..

I became the 50$ bonus on Everest poker and came to 320$ easily.. then the downswing suddenly began... one good hand after another i sucked out and now I'm on 70$ again..

I just can say.. SO FUCKING WHAT IS HAPPENING!!!
I think the random generator in the game made a flag on my site that says "Loose"..

lol this thread is pathetic, thumbs down

OP, beat this!

Originally posted by Zheelvern
OP, beat this!

like 16k hands? thats pretty ugly run

You mean 160K?
Yeah, it's from this year. It's interesting to drop down from nl400 to nl50

Originally posted by GunFlavoured

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

I'm so glad you came along with your infinite statistics wisdom to clear things up!

Thank you! ♠_cool:

Originally posted by Berzerger

I think it's Grailer's second account. This totally made my day!

You're wrong. But i'm glad it made your day.

----------------------------------------------------------------

Enough with the off topic.
Seeing all these statistical anomalies realy scares me.

Originally posted by Zheelvern
You mean 160K?
Yeah, it's from this year. It's interesting to drop down from nl400 to nl50

assuming you get dealt Kings once in ~220.. x 721..
.. ehm.. yeah.. i missed one digit before..
that is prettyyyyyyyyyyyy sickooooooooooooooo
good luck with the recovery..