Never Ending Downswing: Why I should be a winning player

Is it possible you are being the victim of collusion? I know Stars got rid of it's DoN's and replaced them with the Fifty50 format because of extensive collusion.

I would think that HEM would calculate your EV based on the fact the others players are not cheating, and if you are being colluded against, I would think colluders would have an added edge, something that HEM doesn't take into account.

How exactly does does HEM calculate your luck adjusted winings? Is it purely from All in Equity and ICM? If so i don't think collusion would play much a role in your downswing. However if others factors affect your luck adjusted winnings, I would think it would make a difference.

Correct me if I'm wrong,but I would think any players who are colluding will run above EV while his non colluding oppenent will run below it.

What are some other thoughts?

PS sorry if someone has already has raised this issue in a previous post, too lazy to read every single one!

Hey, I stopped by to post something else but I'll 1st answer some of your posts.

Originally posted by bcGiR
This thread is 2 years old.
Either this guy is trollin or needs to keep posting this stuff to justify him loading up more money to blow away.

This thread blows my mind. Makes me feel better about when I tilt though!

Well you ended being the one trolling, sir. You obviously don't know what I've went through or talking about.

Originally posted by Wurble
Everyone realises of course that there will be an outlier for every so many million that play who will just never win? No matter how many hands they play perfectly shit will just happen... It's not bad luck, just statistics.

Yes, it's perfectly reasonable. If you take like 100.000 people playing poker, there should be at least one going through the same thing I'm going through.
But should it be this constant? If I took any 7 consecutive days from the 4 years of playing poker, I could hardly find any with me running above EV.

Originally posted by BlomadahL
Is it possible you are being the victim of collusion? I know Stars got rid of it's DoN's and replaced them with the Fifty50 format because of extensive collusion.

Hmm, that's interesting. I was wondering why would they get rid of those.
I'm myself responsible of getting at least 30 of them banned. There could have been much much more of those playing on my tables though. I did feel being harassed at times when other smaller stacks got constant walks. But it's hard to notice with 10 tables up.

I'm not quite sure how HEM calculates equity. I was told I have to be All-in for it to register. But I believe it could be way more inaccurate for a certain playing styles.
Let's say I'm HU with some very tight guy and the blinds are high enough for push/fold. So I'm pushing, let's say every hand, and he keep folding until he get's some great hand. At some point I get his starting stack in half and then he calls with AK vs mine K9 and doubles back up. Then the same happens 5 more times: I get him to half his stack and he doubles up. Then, the 7th try he loses and he end up 2nd place.
I would imagine this puts his red line way up above 2nd place prize while he still ended up behind. Which would make him running under EV even though he lost just 1 hand out of those 7.

I think they could implement push/fold equity the same way SnGWizard does. Especially those tracking programs which have data on players pushing/calling ranges.

EDIT: As well, more importantly, how is it calculated when I just walk into the money? I just sit tight and other 5 get each other out, which happens occasionally.
Am I considered lucky then? Because I cashed with no all-ins...

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There are several reasons I believe I should be a winning player instead of break-even one.

1) I'd do the same as those winning players (making poker videos) do
I've watched around 100+ poker videos in the past 3-4 months and I was practicing in a way, trying to think of my action before he clicks the button. Push ATC here, squeeze there, push after a pusher etc.
And in like 95+% of the cases we'd do the same. Except of coarse those moves which required some extraordinary reads/notes which I don't have.

As well to add to that, I'm doing SnGWiz quiz 98% on Average and 85% on Hard (having in mind that a mistakes at Expert are borderline, like pushing with Q8s while range should be Q9+) And experimenting how their range changes change my range (now repeat that but fast).

2) Some of my opponents who are so called "winning regs" are bad
In short, these "regs" just keep calling re-raises with crap, calling big flop bets with gut-shots etc.
I don't know, maybe this is how I should play in order to be a winning player, but unlike them, I don't hit my draw right on the next street.

Here are just some examples from last couple of SnGs:

Guy with 10% ROI (11$ Av) over 6.500 games:

After I asked him why he called another 6th of his stack with J8o vs 2 players out of position, he said "but I had good odds, it's like 5:1 or 6:1".
Fine, I guess he got his miracle flops way too often...

Guy with 4% ROI (7$ Av) over 4.500 Games:

Really? lol calling UTG push for half of your stack with Q3? Ok mr. winning player.

Guy with 4% ROI (7$ Av) over 5.000 Games:

Well, maybe I'm a bit harsh on this one, it's just from the last couple of SnGs after all, but should he call 262 bet when he have 955 left, with J high? Am I missing some genius play here?
After I asked him why he called the flop he said "What am I supposed to do with 600 chips?" (when he had 950).

Guy with 2% ROI (5$ Av) over 4.000 Games:

So, this guy calls PF 3Bet with T8s and gets that flop...how magical.
You know what would happen if I tried the same? (should I?) I'd get absolutely nothing 80% of the time and lose 1.000 of my chips with a bad play. But he? He of coarse gets rewarded.

These are just some of many. I might be wrong though, maybe those are good plays. Because, you know, on PS fish gets rewarded hence I should play like fish in order to run above EV. I don't know.

Ah yeah, so my point is: If I'm playing better then them, I should be a winning player also.

3) Should my good hands be crushed this often?
Seriously, I get around 25+ of these every single day:

EDIT: There was another hand HU which I remember playing at one of the last SnGs (but I guess I couldn't find) where we both flopped 2 pair and he had better ones.

So I isolate (or at least try) and still my overpair is no good. 2 pair? No good. Trips? Nope. Straight? Nah. TPTK? There's still chance for a set.
Some of these might be fold-able but these are just some examples from the last 20 SnGs. I think I had like 40 of those (or worse) through out the day. As well I can't fold those against guys with -30% ROI.

So I'm wondering, what does it take to be a winning player? Should I maybe fold these hands against fish and wait for quads or something?

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I do believe you are the victim of alot of collusion Nenad.

Players who collude and have an added edge would be running above EV (getting 'lucky') and someone has to be on the receiving end of their 'good luck' and will be running below EV.

I guess the thing about running SnGs is the application of ICM... Those quizzes you are doing basically say you're making the right push/call even if your EV is miniscule... which obviously can lead to some sick swings and breakeven stretches. The problem is further compounded by the fact that you shouldn't exactly pass up these spots either, even if you can see spots in the future where villains would give you an even greater edge.

You could try playing ring games for a while. I used to run SnGs as well but decided the flexibility of ring games was more appealing even if I was doing well in SnGs. If you don't want to do that, you're just gonna have to grind it out. But even winning players always have room for improvement.