Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $2(BB) Replayer
SB ($200)
BB ($207)
Hero ($251)
UTG+1 ($162)
CO ($163)
BTN ($194)
Dealt to Hero T♣ A♠
Hero raises to $8, fold, CO calls $8, BTN calls $8, SB calls $7, fold
FLOP ($34) 8♠ 5♥ 9♠
SB checks, Hero checks, CO checks, BTN checks
TURN ($34) 8♠ 5♥ 9♠ A♣
SB checks, Hero bets $22, CO calls $22, BTN calls $22, SB folds
RIVER ($100) 8♠ 5♥ 9♠ A♣ 9♥
Hero bets ???
Here's the thing:
CO is a big fish who could have any A and BTN is a 24/17, not aggro pre.
So on the river I think we have a clear vbet against the fish. The thing is that BTN could easily have an AJ or AQ.
I guess a 9 is highly unlikely for any of them to have, since they might have bet flop. Although the fish is the passive type and could potentially have it.
My thought was ship it becasue the CO doesn't fold an A AND as a bonus, BTN might fold AJ or maybe AQ. Do you think thats plausible?
Or would you go instead for the smaller bet trying to get the CO to call 77-87?? He has a 37 WTSD, but even then he's gotta be able to fold something that marginal, I suppose.
Another consideration is that if we bet small, BTN will be much more likely to call something like AJ and then we end up not getting value against CO.
