[Closed] NL100SH AQ top 2

b/c flop, c/rai turn is likely better line
I think he would often raise there bluffs, since players mostly call with Ax on dry boards if you lead to them
If he has there QT, AT; you likely would get his stack anyway unless turn is K or J. But you gain a lot of he is raising there with JT or smt and decides to barrel turn

First of all I'd squeeze preflop. Even if he's not too lose we're happy to take down the pot, AQo doesn't play particularly well 3way OOP.

As played I like to lead the flop also, but as a matter of fact he puts us in a pretty tough spot once he raises the bet (the lead is still good because he calls most of the time if he decides to continue).
A 3bet is not too good for the reasons you already stated (mostly we're getting it in when we're crushed, see also my list of valuecombinations below), but calling also looks pretty strong.

After thinking about it for a while I'm getting more and more confused about what the best option is for the turn:
If we check the turn he is likely to check back QT, he might still bet AT. He is probably also checking back with most bluffs since our call OOP on the flop looks so strong.
That should incline us to bet.

But if we go through his valuecombinations I'm not sure if we can really bet out profitably (even presuming we b/f):
Assuming he raises every 2pair+ there are 6 combinations of QT, 6 of AT, 3 of TT and 1 of AA and QQ each.
Also there are 16 combinations of KJ.
So overall we beat 12 combinations and we are beaten by 21.
But he may be more inclined to just call QT on the flop, so imo it's safe to assume that on average he has about 8-9 combinations we beat.

So combining the information above I got to the conclusion that we actually turn our hand into a bluffcatcher on the flop and should be consistent with that line.
Therefore on the turn either we think he bluffs often enough (and bets worse hands for value) to make a c/c profitable, or we just c/f.

Really not sure here though

I don't remember why I didn't squeeze, but I think I had a good reason ♦

Why do you say that AQ doesn't play well? It's a strong hand that will dominate both players a lot. I think it should be a squeeze a lot of the time, but surely we can flat it sometimes.

But yeah, it's a pretty weird spot. There's one thing though. If we consider his raise size, it really looks like a hand trying to get a T check back and investing little, in order to fold to a 3b. Don't you think?

About the AQ:
I would totally agree with you if we were IP, but OOP imo a squeeze should be our preferred play the vast majority of the time.

About the flopraise:
In the end it depends on how the opponent looks at the situation.
Your argument could be right, but he might as well be the type of player who doesn't even consider raising small in order to check back the turn as an option.

Right now I feel his raise could be a bluff a ton of the time because he can basically exclude TT+ and AQ+ from our range, maybe even AT and KJ depending on how light you squeeze.
So if he thinks that way calling the flop and c/calling turn and river doesn't look too bad anymore.

Really a sick spot ♦

So, I was thinking of db/c, leading turn and shoving river (given a K or J doesn't appear). I'd fold if he showed aggression.

Yes, I like this better. We need to bet to protect our hands since many hands will happily take a free card here. When we are raised, I think shoving just isolates ourselves against monsters, so I prefer to call the raise since our hand is massively underrepresented. I think we can get villain to put a lot more money into the pot with worse this way and we can still take the decision to go broke with our hand (if, e.g., no K or J appears) in a situation when we get more value than when we shove the flop.