[Closed] Move down?

[x] Standard S&G varriance
[ ] Sarmple size

I feel I'm not sure in some spots, but reviewing I'm not making that many mistakes. Almost no HUGE mistakes...
+ I feel the limit is beatable. I can get better, improve my game and make ROI bigger, but ATM I feel I can beat the limit.

Is just that everytime I look at the graph I lose confidence...

I still have a decent roll of 125 BI at the $12.

Stop looking at your garphs, poker is about the presant (IE: where you are now, not where you where or where you want to be). Forget the fact you are atill rolled, becaus eyour confidence is low. Move down limits rebuild confidence and then move back up. Just because you can play $12's doesnt mean you have to play them

Something doesn't add up. If you are 40 buy-ins below the luck-adjusted amount after 200 tournaments, that means your observed ROI is below the adjusted ROI by 20%. If your adjusted EV is 5%, that means your observed ROI should be 5% - 20% = -15%, not -25%.

Running 40 buy-ins below all-in expectation in 200 tournaments is quite unusual. Although you will run 40 buy-ins below your true expectation about 1 time in 30, much of that would tend to come from coolers which the all-in luck adjustment would not see, like when your KK runs into AA instead of AK or JJ.

I agree with PocketAcesJohn that moving down may be right. When you have a lot of buy-ins in your bankroll, that doesn't mean you are safe playing it. A bankroll does not give you skills. Perhaps you are ready to beat the $12s for a solid ROI, but perhaps you are not there yet, in which case you may need a much larger bankroll to be safe at the $12s than someone with a good track record at that level.

When you want to try a level you are not sure you can beat, you may want to set a stop-loss. You might budget 20 buy-ins for the new level. If you lose them, or if you play some set number of tournaments like 200, then stop to reassess whether to keep playing there or to move down.

I wasn`t with my HEM open when I made the post, thats why the numbers wheren`t 100% acurate.

Here they go:

ROI: -18.7
$: = -470.7

evROI: 2.4%
ev$: 59.94

Running 40 buy-ins below all-in expectation in 200 tournaments is quite unusual.

That's what I thought. TY for confirming.
Never heard of it in the forums. I knew this wasn't so standart...

Originally posted by pzhon
Running 40 buy-ins below all-in expectation in 200 tournaments is quite unusual. Although you will run 40 buy-ins below your true expectation about 1 time in 30

pzhon, I had such a run too. Here's the proof:

These are all 22$+2$ STT in fulltilt. Now I've grinded my bankroll to 100+ BIs, but I'am not sure if I am ready to take such a bad run twice. Should I try them again?

24s are rigged imo.

Hey.. just to share what happend...
I decided to continue, cause I feel confortable with my BR and skill. I can still learn to beat the limit harder, but I feel I'm already ok at the limit.

BUT:

275 games now
ROI: -14.8%
-$488.4

ev:
3.6%
120.07

So I reached 50 BI bellow ev. Cool, huh?

At least my BR is a bit bigger than before because of rakeback....

sick

This is becoming a blog, hehehe

Still confident in my game. Almost reach the 60 < ev milestone...

kinda looks like my graph for August. i'm about -40EV at thr $6.50 EV is about breakeven too.