[Closed] NL100 SH - JJ multiway vs flushed turn shove from short fish

May be useful if you have seen some of his tendencies - whether he donks his draws or plays them passively, etc. Certain fish will donk / CRAI his draws, so his bet on the turn may mean that he just picked a FD (i.e., he has a single club).

But by default, I think this is a fold.

I don't really like the call on the flop:
Any A, K, Q, T, 9, 8, 7 ,6 and any will make us feel bad about our hand on the turn.

So a raise would be the only option left, but I'd actually fold to the cbet: The reg is not bluffing and vs a valuerange we don't do great:
Board: Ts 9c 2c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 69.866% 68.74% 01.13% 31304 513.00 { 99+, 22, AcKc, AcQc, AcJc, ATs, KcQc, KcJc, KTs, QcJc, QTs, JcTc, T9s }
Hand 1: 30.134% 29.01% 01.13% 13210 513.00 { JdJs }

Additionally by calling we will still lose a lot of money vs 99+ and if the flush or the straight get there we can only fold to any further action.
But raising is overplaying the hand imo as the range that gets it in is even stronger - so we would raise/fold only to get Tx to fold.
Board: Ts 9c 2c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 78.780% 77.42% 01.36% 29124 513.00 { 99+, 22, AcKc, AcQc, AcJc, AcTc, KcQc, KcJc, QcJc, JcTc, T9s }
Hand 1: 21.220% 19.86% 01.36% 7470 513.00 { JdJs }

The reg is not bluffing

I definitely don't think we can assume he is a reg just from 17 hands. Even if we did, 29/24 are not very typical tag reg stats on this limit in my opinion. (they are not fish stats, necessarily, but I would say vpip of 29 is pretty high).

This may not change the evaluation of the hand, but I thought I would mention.

Originally posted by Tim64

The reg is not bluffing

I definitely don't think we can assume he is a reg just from 17 hands. Even if we did, 29/24 are not very typical tag reg stats on this limit in my opinion. (they are not fish stats, necessarily, but I would say vpip of 29 is pretty high).

This may not change the evaluation of the hand, but I thought I would mention.

Ah well okay, he doesn't necessarily need to be a reg, but on NL100 when a guy has 100BB+ and he has stats that would tell us he's a reg if he had them over a bigger sample, he is a reg 90%+ of the time.
On average this will be an accurate assumption.

I only assume he is not a regular if the stats stand out a lot, so for example when he has 29/5 over 17 hands.
But usually everything between 8/3 and 38/35 is a reg to me after 17 hands ;).