[Closed] 33 in BB bubble time

It is a fold even without being on bubble. While bubble doesn't really make a difference to you here, it makes a huge difference to him. Instead of pushing even 100%, he might be only pushing something like 10-40% here.

Outside bubble, IF you know he is pushing 100% it is probably a call. Problem is that you need to know that he is pushing really really wide there.

what do u think BTN range is here?
what r u pushing in BTN spot?

I think his shoving range is likely 15% unless he is crazy and shoving close to 25%+
Anyway I don´t mind fold/call there
Shouldn´t be that much difference, since your equity is around 40% and pot isn´t that big that you should call.
Just the difference of playing styles. i´d rather keep my 20k stack than try to get to 27k, since between 13k and 20k it is quite big difference

tempted to call this , lot happier to take coinflip without risking tourney life

his range gonna be pretty wide anyway , depends if he knows you will defend your blinds or not & what he has been playing ie tight , still think I calling though

i little reverse this hand,
- I was on BTN and shove KQ,
- BB (after i check his stats i see that he is a wining player) calls with 33 I hit Q on river
after that he shit something about that people always suck out on him on river, and he was ahead of mine range, etc.... and i said to him that that call with 33 wasn't that great in that spot cos best what he get is a coin flip and he is never ahead vs mine range, he is flipping for 2/5 of his stack or crushed drawing for 2 outs
i was just curious to know is that standard call for all of u considering all factors (bubble, stack sizes) cos i will never call in that spot with 33 as kaitz20 post there is big difference between 13k-20k and not so much difference between 20k-27k stack

easy fold for me
dont get the point to call this ... u never more ahead then 55%
BU should push like 15% and so u have to fold this hand

uhhh 15% bu push late in a 55$ tournament say whaaa?

estimate 40% bu push. against which we easily have the right pot odds to call. sure some ppl are on 15% here, but then some others are on ATC.

a rough idea of nash here ignoring ICM (i'm gonna assume this is a standard stars top heavy payout structure)

http://www.holdemresources.net/hr/sngs/icmcalculator.html?action=calculate&bb=600&sb=300&ante=50&structure=1&s1=7378&s2=31342&s3=20222&s4=&s5=&s6=&s7=&s8=&s9=

the fact that it's the bubble isn't that big a deal here

edit: just noted that i screwed up the nash in that i didn't include enough players. normally this isn't an issue but on pokerstars antes are in play. therefore there is simply more in the pot when there are more players. so folding becomes even worse even if villain doesn't adjust correctly and continues to push as tight

Originally posted by chenny8888
uhhh 15% bu push late in a 55$ tournament say whaaa?

estimate 40% bu push. against which we easily have the right pot odds to call. sure some ppl are on 15% here, but then some others are on ATC.

a rough idea of nash here ignoring ICM (i'm gonna assume this is a standard stars top heavy payout structure)

http://www.holdemresources.net/hr/sngs/icmcalculator.html?action=calculate&bb=600&sb=300&ante=50&structure=1&s1=7378&s2=31342&s3=20222&s4=&s5=&s6=&s7=&s8=&s9=

the fact that it's the bubble isn't that big a deal here

edit: just noted that i screwed up the nash in that i didn't include enough players. normally this isn't an issue but on pokerstars antes are in play. therefore there is simply more in the pot when there are more players. so folding becomes even worse even if villain doesn't adjust correctly and continues to push as tight

the actual bubble is a big deal imo cos most people wont push wide enough from btn into 2 stacks in blinds who got them covered 2x, after playing like 3-4 hours and to bust 1 out of the money when they can easily fold and wait bubble to burst,
btw this MTT in sunday has great structure blind level is so slow, so player on btn can wait like 1 -2 orbits before must shoving
and 1 more thing as u see your nash calc gives very wide range to btn shove i dont think that any1 who is aware that it is actual bubble(2-3 players left from $$) woudnt shove that wide range

imo no given the top heavy payout structure. self-reflect here and think about what your personal range is in this situation. are you really going to be able to pass up premium pushing hands like q6s? there are so many antes in the middle!

edit: oops q6s isn't even in top 35%. anyway i'm always pushing q6s. if i assume the average opponent pushes 2/3 of the hands i push then 33 is still a call

edit2: if pushing q6s is anything but trivial for you (as the BU) on the bubble you should rly reevaluate your mtt strategy, especially regarding payouts. top 3 just pay so much more than that 2x-buyin mincash

Originally posted by chenny8888
imo no given the top heavy payout structure. self-reflect here and think about what your personal range is in this situation. are you really going to be able to pass up premium pushing hands like q6s? there are so many antes in the middle!

edit: oops q6s isn't even in top 35%. anyway i'm always pushing q6s. if i assume the average opponent pushes 2/3 of the hands i push then 33 is still a call

edit2: if pushing q6s is anything but trivial for you (as the BU) on the bubble you should rly reevaluate your mtt strategy, especially regarding payouts. top 3 just pay so much more than that 2x-buyin mincash

i dont think that pushing that wide on actual bubble after u invested 4 hours of play is + EV move, when u can easily past this little + ev spot

i dont say is that the call BB made is like really bad call, i just say that imo this call is unprofitable call,(cos imo in that spot like more then 80% of people will shove tight range vs which ur fliping in best case) and with that call BB is butchering his solid stack i think 66+ is a call there and 55 puke call or puke fold but 22-44 is way to weak imo to call there

it's irrelevant how many hours of play you've invested. i don't think aiming for a mincash (unless in quite extreme situations) after investing 4 hours of your play is worth it either, but i will of course assess it based on its EV. sure we can add an ICM tax to accommodate for payouts, but the fact of the matter is that with our 7k stack we are still well in contention for the top couple of places, and as a result we should be shoving a lot of hands.

now you mention, however, that it is a sunday tournament. in a sunday tournament if I was in BB's shoes that may bias me already towards folding 33, as people generally play tighter when it comes to pushing preflop in those (as they play worse). but if you're saying that you as a pokerstrategy member (with access to useful tools such as ICM Trainer and knowledge of tools such as SNGWizard) are not pushing hands like A2o and Q6s and 65s as the button, then that becomes a problem.

Originally posted by chenny8888
it's irrelevant how many hours of play you've invested. i don't think aiming for a mincash (unless in quite extreme situations) after investing 4 hours of your play is worth it either, but i will of course assess it based on its EV. sure we can add an ICM tax to accommodate for payouts, but the fact of the matter is that with our 7k stack we are still well in contention for the top couple of places, and as a result we should be shoving a lot of hands.

now you mention, however, that it is a sunday tournament. in a sunday tournament if I was in BB's shoes that may bias me already towards folding 33, as people generally play tighter when it comes to pushing preflop in those (as they play worse). but if you're saying that you as a pokerstrategy member (with access to useful tools such as ICM Trainer and knowledge of tools such as SNGWizard) are not pushing hands like A2o and Q6s and 65s as the button, then that becomes a problem.

heheheh
nice 1 ♦

we r obv not talking about same isue imo

i know that that is at least 30% range is profitable shoving from btn with <12bb

but the thing is that i wont be happy when i'll be bubble boy after i play 4 hours shoving btn of that range into 2 blinds that can call me relatively light considering their stack size vs mine stack size when is no need of taking unnecessary risk in that spot when i think i have edge in skills vs remaing players in the field

its like runing throw mine field , surviving it and then puting on your self vest with TNT and blow ur self up

it's just pure +EV (and most importantly +$EV!) to ship those hands though vs their calling ranges given the payout structure and because you're going to be shipping those hands, 33 is a trivial call on his end.

Originally posted by chenny8888
it's just pure +EV (and most importantly +$EV!) to ship those hands though vs their calling ranges given the payout structure and because you're going to be shipping those hands, 33 is a trivial call on his end.

hmmm

it looks like no1 from other posters shares your opinion, they all give BTN (me) tighter range then 30% in this situation
i'm very interested what others r thinking on this situation, nice discussion btw

so notice other member to post in this thread answer on this question

SCENARIO

BUBBLE TIME ~ 2-5 PLAYERS LEFT BEFORE $$, NO SPECIFIC READS ON SB/BB

PokerStars - $50+$5|300/600 NL (9 max) - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

UTG: 24,088.00
UTG+1: 20,179.00
MP: 10,760.00
MP+1: 28,938.00
LP: 21,818.00
CO: 15,036.00
HERO BTN: 7,378.00
SB: 31,342.00
BB: 20,222.00

UTG+1 posts ante 70.00, MP posts ante 70.00, MP+1 posts ante 70.00, LP posts ante 70.00, CO posts ante 70.00, BTN posts ante 70.00, SB posts ante 70.00, HERO posts ante 70.00, UTG posts ante 70.00, SB posts SB 300.00, BB posts BB 600.00

fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, HERO ?????

WHAT IS HERO SHOVING RANGE HERE???

probs should say it's a sunday mtt. which would weight my range towards 60% or so more towards suited cards as we has 12bb and a lot of fold equity against the nits in the blinds. fwiw if you're that worried about the bubble maybe you should just close the lobby window until you have 11 players left

you are in a comfy top 5 position, with 30+ bb. why would you possibly risk 1/3 of your stack with 33??

Originally posted by dubadal
you are in a comfy top 5 position, with 30+ bb. why would you possibly risk 1/3 of your stack with 33??

you need to reevaluate things that are important in a tournament ;). if we're getting the right pot odds against his range and ICM considerations aren't so huge as to make cEV unimportant then we must call

Originally posted by dubadal
you are in a comfy top 5 position, with 30+ bb. why would you possibly risk 1/3 of your stack with 33??

what?? top 5? u realize that this is MTT? i'm suggesting to read the whole threat first then to post comment

if u read it you'll see that i wasn't actually bb i was BTN and........

btw as chenny8888 said if u r getting right pot odds and u think u r ahead of villains range u should call, investing 1/3 of your stack is not a big deal

the problem/dilema in this situation is (cos is bubble time 2-3 to bust to get itm)
what is the range that one is shoving from BTN,
and what should be the range that one should shove from BTN in this scenario

IMO villain range shouldnt be wider then A8s+,AT+,JQ+,JTs+, 55+ (maybe even tighter 66+/AT+/KQ/KJs+/QJs+ cos we r shoving vs 2 big stacks who got us covered by 4x and 3x and they can afford to make marginal calls) and imo vs that range call with 33 isnt good play

chenny8888 doesnt agree with that, he thinks that BTN should have standard wide shoving range there no matter that is bubble and obv vs that range 33 is something like standard call with bnt of our calling range

nah i'm thinking rather than assuming something like 60% push range we can safely assume 40% or so pushing range