[Closed] K9o BU short stacked in freeroll on bubble.

hi,

this really is kind of an awkward spot because the bubble-factors in this kind of payout-structure are HUGE (and the blinds are that high). but i'm pretty sure folding is superior to shoving here.

there are many factors which let me lean towards the fold:

- as already said: ICM! you lose so much $EV by busting out in comparison to the relatively small benefit of doubling up here. you are on rank 20 right now so your chance to make it is already quite decent. since i don't have all stacks of the tourney, i can't make an exact ICM analysis, but i tried to approximate the situation by 5 places paid - 7 left and you are in 5th place (i did not insert the exact stacks on your table since the situation in the overall tourney is more relevant - important to me were mainly the stacks of bu - sb - bb and the fact that there's one other stack smaller than you)

http://www.holdemresources.net/hr/sngs/icmcalculator.html
Level: 4000.0/8000.0/800.0
Structure: 0.2/0.2/0.2/0.2/0.2
Players: 7
Runtime: 117ms [300 Iterations]
Player Stack Push% EQPre EQPost EQDiff
UTG 26540.0 9.4% 0.1582 0.1634 0.00527
UTG+1 54000.0 9.7% 0.1887 0.1906 0.00188
UTG+2 12345.0 7.5% 0.1004 0.1043 0.00388
CO 50000.0 22.9% 0.1866 0.1888 0.00215
BU 16400.0 15.4% 0.1234 0.1295 0.0061
SB 8500.0 100.0% 0.0739 0.0603 -0.0136
BB 32000.0 0.1688 0.1631 -0.00568

according to Nash you could push something like:
55+ A5s+ A8o+ KTs+ KJo+

so in this approximation you should fold K9o.

And for the following reasons, this nash-range is imo even too loose for this spot:
- the BB. optimally (nash) he should still fold quite a lot here. but many players just see the odds and aren't aware of that. especially in a freeroll
- the future game. you're on the button and there will be probably some players (on other tables) auto-all-in before you are. and there are also always a lot of players who don't understand bubble-situations in satellites and will bust out incorrectly which favors your chance of making it ITM.
- the payout-structure: the payout-structure i used in the calculation will most likely create smaller bubble-factors than the real one.

so overall folding would've been better here.

u have to fold this

u have no FE and not enough equity
with ICM ... u need like 80% to push this hand, becuase of no FE
its better to wait here and hope that other player bust out

Thanks for the input guys.. I figured I had some fold equity because I'd been pretty tight and BB was extra tight. Obviously I'm guessing though.

And just to be absolutely clear, unless we get a premium hand and are first in (say QQ+?), with this stack size in this position in the tourney we're blinding out hoping others bust first?

PS. Thanks for the link to the ICM calculator muebarek! I wasn't aware such a thing existed outside of SnG wiz (which I'm not purchasing unless I start grinding MTTs at some point in the future). Really helpful thank you!

JJ+ u have to push
AK ... is a fold, becuase its to bad against any2

BB had to call any2 ... if he dont do it ... then its getting tough
because then u can push much more hands, then my range

in this spot u have a huge bubblefactor ... but ICM dont see, that u blind out
so its no easy spot at all ... but if BB calls any2 ... u have to push very tight

sb also has to call any too he has 1/2 his stack in if i'm reading HH ok

fold and fold all the way, blind out use ur time bank, hopefully shorter guys will bust before u do