[Closed] Step Satellite Bubble

Hi,

since you all have the 4th place money guaranteed, this is effectively a typical satellite structure being (1/3, 1/3, 1/3)

If you do ICM-Calculations with this structure, you'll find

for Villain:
$EV(fold to your shove) = 21.619% of the pricepool
$EV(call, win) = 32.841%
$EV(call, lose) = 0

--> this means, he needs ~65,8% equity to call you here, but A3o only has 55,8% Equity against ANY TWO, so this is an unexploitable fold for Villain which makes Calling a terrible play that burns a lot of $ in the long run.

Hero: If Villain called reasonably (around 77+, ATs+, AQo+), then Hero could profitably shove any two cards and shoving K8o would be perfectly fine. Since the BB is braindead and makes clear -$EV calls which is bad for both of you, we have to take a closer look:
ICM for Hero:
$EV(openfold) = 23.040 %
$EV(push, bb folds) = 25.045 %
$EV(push, win) = 33.333 %
$EV(push, lose) = 2.568%

Assuming, the BB calls with a range like 22+, Ax, K7s+, KTo+, QTs+ which is around 25% of all hands (i chose on purpose a range containing A3o), the $EV for the push is:

$EV(Push) = 75%*25.045% + 25%*35%*33.333% + 25%*65%*2.568%
(where 35% is the equity of K8o against this range)
= 21,978% < $EV(openfold)

This means: if you knew your opponent calls that loose, you should not have pushed but since it is hard to tell and it's a clear push against many opponents and even against this one you only lose ~1% of the pricepool by pushing, shoving K8o is fine most of the time.

I apologise for letting you wait this long.

Fortunately i find muebareks answer perfekt and better than mine would have been since I´m not a satellite expert.

Bottom line: His call is terribly bad, your push is fine.

Thanks to muebarek.