[Closed] 200NL - K7s 3bet pot 3way deep ante table

Are you saying you think you should fold?

What's his fold to 3bet?

Wow, I could never fold this. (Probably why I am stuck at nl100...)

Ax flushes seem not that lightly - he would have to call AJs/ATs oop vs us, which I tend not to do myself ( although perhaps with the fish in and deep stacks it would be okay).

I know that the dbl paid board is not ideal but I'm not sure your call on the flop makes sense if you're not going to invest some chips when/if you hit the flush. if you think he can often have Ax :diamond:, then calling on the flop seems like a big mistake.

Just my two cents, for what it's worth

Generally agree with Tim
Btw what is his f@3b. If he's a spewing fish i dont like your 3b at all.
Actuaaly all the hand depends on more complex stats. If he can call 3b wide, he could even hold some weaker flushes here, aswell as overpairs (you dont have fh here while you checked and he could easily vbet AA for example)

If you call flop you must call river i think.

villain is a very good regular LAG. He folds about 60% to 3bets, also given we are deepstacked with the fish, he will have a much wider range.

I agree that his range is quite wide, but more likely suited connectors and pockets. His donk bet could easily be a squeeze play. You're not really raising AK, AQ with that fish still to act.

The river gives him a nice card to bluff on. Now you have to think about flushes, a queen and the full house, and he can probably get you to fold most of your possible holdings.

If you have something like 99-JJ you'd quite possibly fold as he's represented something like the 8 or a flush draw. You could possible fold AA, KK. if he thinks you're quite tight he would take that into consideration. (What are your stats? table image?)

Because he's a LAG I would call as you have the top of your range (the worse part being AA, KK, JJ or TT). As the LAG I would definitely think about putting in a nice bet on that card because it looks really strong.

But this is going to depend on his river aggression, his donk bet% in multiway pots as a caller (even though he is calling a 3bet). So I would call and make a note, because he's a LAG regular and you can make some money off his LAGginess in the future.

OK, here are some more thoughts:

I think he wont bluff the flop at all with the SB fish in the hand. So he could definetly bet any 8x or even 6x here to make sure it wont get checked thru (my c-bet frequ will drop massively with the fish in the hand). He can have many 8x and 6x hands since we are deep and 3way with the hughe fish. That said I think he might check the turn because he thinks he might not get paid off 3 streets by an Overpair.

So then on the river, since his flopbetting range (in my eyes) is heavily weighted towards value or maybe a semibluff with Axdd, there is not much worse I beat that he is betting the river with. Additionally he wont have many bluffs in his range, since he wouldnt just bluff the flop with the fish in the hand and me being IP on him I think. Does that make sense?

thanks for comments

my stats by the way are 28/24 3bet 8 3.2agg something like that

Hm tough spot.
I wonder if we should 3bet preflop, against the LAG it should be ok as he needs to play OOP vs us and even though he might be very good we still have position on him.

But with the fish in the SB we might get coldcalled somewhat often in which case the LAG will overcall a lot as well - still not terrible because we're IP, but not great either.
Anyway, a 3bet is definitely doable, just wanted to throw in some thoughts.

As played on the flop I wonder why he leads out so small. I agree that this is probably a bluff close to never and additonally I think he wouldn't bet hands like 99 and TT, maybe he'd lead out JJ. But the coldcall from the fish is a signal he has a medium strength hand, so with 99,TT to the LAG it shoul feel like valuetowning himself.
Still, he has 76s, 65s, 88, 66 in his range - maybe even onegappers in which case 86s is also in his range - only 2 combinations, but we have 0% equity vs them.
Furthermore I think KK+ is very unlikely since he would usually just 4bet it preflop - the only overpair left for leading is QQ.

Additionally I'm asking myself if he would lead out so small if he had a non-nut-FD. After all with those he wants to have foldequity - the only FD he wants to get called with is the nut-FD.

Since his range is so strong and we have a ton of reverse implied odds vs better FDs while he hardly has any worse FDs in his range I actually consider folding on the flop.

Board: 6c 6d 8d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 75.063% 74.76% 00.31% 17762 73.00 { QQ, 88, 66, AdQd, AdJd, AdTd, Ad9d, A6s, Ad5d, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ad2d, 76s, 65s }
Hand 1: 24.937% 24.63% 00.31% 5852 73.00 { Kd7d }

Even if the turn wasn't a 8c but for example a 9c and the river wasn't a Qd but a Jd we'd still not be happy to call a bet:
Board: 6c 6d 8d 9c Jd
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.826% 47.83% 00.00% 11 0.00 { QQ, 88, 66, AdQd, AdJd, AdTd, Ad9d, A6s, Ad5d, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ad2d, 76s, 65s }
Hand 1: 52.174% 52.17% 00.00% 12 0.00 { Kd7d }

We only flip vs his range but he'd probably not bet 6x anymore (ofc we could valuebet but unless we know he's capable of supersick moves against us it would be a bet/fold).

do you fold the river as played?

We established that he never has a bluff, so this might even be a thin valuebet with 6x or a NFD vs a weaker flush or {99-AA}\{QQ}.

The only options left are fold or shove, but shoving would be pretty thin, I'm not sure if we can represent enough valuecombinations to make him fold as we probably fold 8x on the flop in his eyes since his bet looks so strong (not sure of that though, maybe we'd call it?), so the only hands we can represent are 66 and QQ - only 4 combinations.