I have been playing poker for over a year now, and consider myself to be at least break-even player for the last 9 months, as I improved my game enough by then to win back the money I had lost earlier on, and at the moment I am generally making a profit, undoubtedly not as much as I'd wish to :P. Here are the things that are bothering me (in comparison), however:
1 - Every time I make a new deposit I get a good run of cards, or by some other means manage to give suckouts and make a nice profit. Usually it lasts for one or two days. After that, I'll lose almost every single all in hand where I am ahead, and the same for the hands where I am behind. I am playing tournaments, hence the need to go all in at some stage. Sooner or later I have to steal, re-steal or simply put my money in with what I believe to be the best hand, and when I am called, I lose 90% of them. Ax to a lower Ax, Any better hand to a pair the villain hits or a straight, flush, you name it. Yet nothing of the sort happens during the first day or two. I made a new deposit after a 2 week break from a poker room, and the very first day I won the single 180 man tournament I entered, when by all means I should have finished at third place, at best. Yet I kept sucking out and won. (Hitting a staight vs a better hand I can't remember, hitting a straight with A5s vs QQ, and so on)
Managed to win a few satellite tournaments as well, on the same day bringing my initial $25 deposit to a total of $200, most of which I withdrew.
And now, on the third day, I have lost almost every single hand, with one exception, where I sucked out on aces. Not that it helped, because I was sucked out myself later on when defending my blinds with AJo to A7o. And so on, and so on. I believe I have had around 15 such hands today. 15 hands I went all in with in a tournament and was called, or called myself [hyper/super-turbo*, SNG and MTT tournaments; stealing and defending the blinds, and all in with what I believed to be the best hand, or a (QQ) coinflip in the worst case]. Did not have too much trouble with post flop play, as I did not play too many hands.
As said, this is not the first time I have seen such patterns. The same thing happened with my previous deposit. I made it to $200 in two days, hitting miracle hands, or sucking out in insane ways, yet from the third day onwards I went on losing it, mostly to worse hands. Of course I did make some bad judgements, i.e defending my blind when I could have done without it, but I knew what the villains range was, and knew I was ahead. On this I can not blame anyone but myself. It still does not mean that this can be normal.
I have been switching between two different poker rooms, and noticed the same pattern in both of them. It is fairly easy to win the day after the deposit, (by fairly easy I mean, if you know how to play, if you don't know the basics, you will be busted out with a crap hand anyway, or be blinded out), but very hard to play profitably afterwards. The best I managed at the other poker room, was breaking even and getting up and downswings in the range of $50, until I was again at break-even. (I did withdraw a profit, before my bankroll was flushed down straight to the toilet. Literally.
I do believe, emphasize the world believe that online poker is not rigged, as the risks would be too high, and they should have no reason to cheat. But in all honesty, I do not know that, and such patterns make me doubtful, as I have always won most directly after depositing, and from then on going on a break-even trend, which would be a outright losing one, If I were a worse player with no skills whatsoever.
2 - I have been playing poker in a few brick and mortar casinos, and the only times I have lost playing live, are the cases where I have made bad decisions, or turned greedy. I have made a constant profit in general. No major upswings, no major downswings, just bad plays and losses, as a result, or proficient plays and winnings mixed with a few bad beats and a few suckouts given to some poor fellow pokerplayers.
Am I the only one to see such a pattern? Can it really be a honest variance? And now the epic question, is online poker rigged? ![]()
*As to not give away the poker rooms in question.