Hi
I still struggle to understand when I should be pushing ATC...
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Why is it definitely not the case here?
Is because my stack doesn't put enough pressure on BB (not enough FE)?
Is there a sort of ruff calculation i could rely on or do I just need to 'feel the ICM' more by practicing on the trainer?
Thanks
First, this isn't the bubble. With 4 equal stacks, it is often right to push ATC or close from the SB. With 5 equal stacks, you can't count on that level of risk aversion.
Second, the big blind covers you by a lot. This means the big blind is not that risk-averse against you, while you are risk-averse against him. Numerically, here are the tie factors:
Tie Factors:
------ 3370 1210 2840 2830 3250
3370 ------ 53.3 61.1 61.1 63.8
1210 55.9 ------ 55.9 55.8 56.3
2840 63.0 53.8 ------ 62.4 63.3
2830 62.9 53.8 62.4 ------ 63.2
3250 64.3 53.7 61.8 61.7 ------
When you push, here is what it looks like from his perspective:
Fold: 3170 chips, 0.2283, SD: $16.97
Win: 4580 chips, 0.3013
Lose: 2160 chips, 0.1684
Tie: 3370 chips, 0.2393
Equity needed: 45.07%
Chip odds: 41.74%
Risk premium: 3.33%
If the stacks were reversed, the big blind would need 48% equity, much higher, so that a wide push would have much more folding equity. Even then, you couldn't push ATC, but you could push closer to an 80% range against a Nash caller. As the stacks are, the Nash pushing range is closer to 60%.
