[Closed] NL100: Nut FD on paired board, turn raise

Folding turn should be your choice. Mainly because you are drawing dead some of the time or only drawing to 7 outs if he has the flush. Also your implied odds aren't that great, you are barely getting 4:1 on a call w implied odds and we are not always going to get paid if we do hit.

You are basically bluffcatching if you call the turn because villain is only raising fullhouse/flush or bluff on the turn. So your call against that value-range is heavily burning money.

And shoving over his turn-raise or calling river w K high, you are gonna need some strong reads for that.

( And if villain decides to bluff-raise this turn he is trying to make you fold Ax, so he is always shoving the river aswel => Thus calling turn with the thought u might be able to float him if you don't improve is out of the question since villain is always continuing w his bluffs on the river )

So villain has a complete merged range of fullhouse/bluffs/flushes on the river and if a 4th comes he is almost always c/f'ing his lower flushes.

So basically there is 0 value in calling the turn. The only thing you can hope for is that villain is bluffing and shoves a 4th on the river. But obviously his range isn't 100% bluffs, so calling to have a ''19%'' chance of hitting your flush on the river and hoping villain bluffshoves isn't going to make u money

Atleast that's how I see it.

I completely agree with Purity.

Even if we'd consider all 9 spades to be outs we'd still only have ~20% equity.

But we already need 17/64=~27% to make the call.

We can't really expect to have implied odds as four spades on the board will scare the opponent when he has Ax.
At the same time when he has a FH we're paying him off most of the time if we hit.

So b/f turn is also my preferred line.