[Closed] Question about variance.

come back with a 10k sample and finish distributions might have some relevance.

sounds like a lot of variance, not saying ur playing bad or anything.. just enjoy it while it lasts. as a 'believer' in the red-line . all roads lead to red. so you must prepare for the bad times by not getting overly excited when u do run hot, and not getting too depressed when you do run bad. the long run is a very very long time and 99.99% of STT players will never get a statistically significant sample size in their lifetimes.

even if you do manage to get a large sample (10k+) on the same limit, your game would have evolved so much overtime and the player pool might have gotten harder/easier so your underlying real roi during the first 2k games would be completely different to the underlying real roi over the last 2k games... which would skew the over-all result....

if only we could create a robot free of tilt to mindlessly play 50k games exactly the way we would play. then we might actually get some reliable data on attainable/sustainable rois for any giving limit.

As you play more, your estimates for your ROI and finishing distribution (under past game conditions) gradually get more accurate. A rough 95% confidence interval for your ROI might be your observed ROI +- 310%/Sqrt(# tournaments). A rough 95% confidence interval for your first place finishes might be your observed 1sts +- 70%/Sqrt(# tournaments).

So, after 1600 games, that would be ROI +- 310%/40, or ROI +- 8%, and 1sts+- 70%/40, or 1sts +- 1.75%. You can say that you have strong statistical evidence that you are winning and that you are placing first more than 13% of the time, but you don't yet have tight estimates on either your ROI or your first place finishes. The red line is a better indicator of your ROI than your results alone, and it might let you multiply your sample size by 2.2 or more.

You bust out in 8th and 9th more than many serious players. This may be because you are playing looser in early levels, which is probably a good thing. It is usually better to bust out early than to bubble out, since you save time. Particularly if you have a cash game background, you should have a high win rate in early levels, both in chips and equity, and one of the results is a high number of first place finishes since you will more often have the chip lead on the bubble. The more common nitty style leaves chips on the table and may result in more finishes in 6th-4th place, with only 11-13% firsts.

Thank you both very much.

I also just saw the variance video and I am sold on the red line for sure now.

That was a massive sample and the two lines are married over and over again.

The good news is that the green line does not have to drop for them to meet.

You can have a break even stretch while the red line rises for example.

I was just so worried about a dip in the red bringing death to the green.

Results orientated FTL.

I will look into my 9 handed and 8 handed play as well.

Originally posted by 8979687
I also just saw the variance video and I am sold on the red line for sure now.

donde estas este?

yeh... i cant wait for pzhons new vids. topics sound really good.. pzhon is like the bomb

Looks like its pretty standart... Both ways

I have 3% ROI and 5.9% evROI over 1377 games....
And I just had a 10 BI > ev session..

A 3rd 50BI downswing before the 2k games would be very sick...