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[Closed] NL100 Rush JJ 4way

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Tim64
Joined: 03.11.2008

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
SB ($46)
BB ($17.30)
Hero ($79.25)
UTG+1 ($30.80)
CO ($50)
BTN ($58.85)

Dealt to Hero J♥ J♦

Hero raises to $1.75, fold, CO calls $1.75, fold, SB calls $1.50, BB calls $1.25

FLOP ($7) 8♥ 6♥ 7♥

SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks, CO checks

TURN ($7) 8♥ 6♥ 7♥ 3♠

SB bets $4.50, BB folds, Hero calls $4.50, CO folds

RIVER ($16) 8♥ 6♥ 7♥ 3♠ 4♠

SB checks, Hero bets $3, SB calls $3

co 21/19/4, 1khs, sb 24/12/3, 300hs (22% call in blinds), BB unk.

Equilabs says I am marginally ahead on the flop 29% vs 25% combined ranges. Is this enough to bet? Since we have to fold to raise I think checking may be ok here?

I give SB following range for betting turn: {TT-99,55,A9s,A5s,K9s,Q9s,T9s,54s,A9o,AhQh,KhQh,AhTh,KhTh,QhTh,Js9s,Jc9c,Ad8d,As8s,Ac8c,Kd8d,Ks8s,Kc8c,Qd8d,Qs8s,Qc8c,Td8d,Ts8s,Tc8c,9d8d,9s8s,9c8c,8d8s,8d8c,8s8c,Ad7d,As7s,Ac7c,Kd7d,Ks7s,Kc7c,8d7d,8s7s,8c7c,7d7s,7d7c,7s7c,Ad6d,As6s,Ac6c,7d6d,7s6s,7c6c,6d6s,6d6c,6s6c,6d5d,6s5s,6c5c,Ah4h,Ad3d,Ah3h,Ac3c,3d3h,3d3c,3h3c,Ah2h} (phew!)

...against which I have 60%. Actually he probably bets a narrower range, so this is best case. Its enought to call, though.

When he checks on river, first thought is we are ahead and should bet. But Equilabs says its 55%: 45% in my favour only. So we can certainly only bet small to get calls from 99/TT, A8s etc.

Q: should we even bet at all if Eqlabs is right?

thx

Edit: srry, just realised this is NL50 - still, grateful for your highend analysis ;)


3 replies
Bierbaer
Joined: 27.05.2005

I like the check on the flop a lot. This board hits SBs and BBs range a lot and COs range to some extent. Since it would be a close spot anyway (means: cbetting has ~0EV) we can as well check and protect our equity in the pot (we'd fold to a checkraise).
They will not put us on an overpair and if it is checked to us again we can valuebet vs a lot of worse pairs and :heart:-draws.

As played if I want to continue on the turn I'd usually put in a raise to $12.
The reason is, that vs the valuehands we're usually calling a riverbet anyway, so I want to get some value vs FDs and 1pair-hands.
Also we get a free SD.
So the raise is for thin value and protection.

In case he 3bets I'd just fold, but I think we're beat like 100% of the time with almost no equity.

As played on the river I think I'd check, but it's sooo close. Depends on what you assume he's calling again, imo he's a bit too likely to fold some 1pair-hands but he will c/c 2pair+ like always.
It's just that if there's even the slightest chance he interprets the small bet as weakness and bluffs with some kind of busted draw me miss out on a pot we'd just win by checking (I presume the plan is to b/f).


Tim64 Topic starter
Tim64
Joined: 03.11.2008

Ok, thanks - that makes sense.

Only Question is if he just calls our turn raise but then leads river, say 1/2- 2/3 (assume blank).

Do we mostly fold since we put him on range of 2p+ that beats us? Or lean towards call becuase hands he bet/calls turn includes more draws than monsters?

thx


Bierbaer
Joined: 27.05.2005

If he bet/calls the turn and leads I'd usually just fold.
The board is so scary that I think most players will play their draws with the hope of hitting and give up once they miss.


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