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[Closed] what i dont understand this play nl100

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supeyrio
Joined: 11.11.2009

can someone explain to me how is this play good?
yea the assumption here is that it is a good play by a villian who is a winning reg at this limit. my image is definitely taggish decent and i dont remember any history vs him.
or it's just tilt play?
Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $1(BB) Poker Stars
SB ($106)
Hero ($108)
UTG ($85.85)
UTG+1 ($133)
UTG+2 ($142)
MP1 ($189)
CO ($148)
BTN ($57.35)

Dealt to Hero A♥ A♠

fold, fold, fold, fold, CO raises to $3, fold, fold, Hero raises to $12, CO raises to $148 (AI), Hero calls $96.15 (AI)

FLOP ($216) A♣ 9♦ 8♦

TURN ($216) A♣ 9♦ 8♦ 2♦

RIVER ($216) A♣ 9♦ 8♦ 2♦ 5♦

CO shows K♠ Q♥
(Pre 12%, Flop 1.6%, Turn 0.0%)

Hero shows A♥ A♠
(Pre 88%, Flop 98.4%, Turn 100.0%)

p.s. not trying to be funny here but i really wanna hear some comments. the guy's graph is steadily upwards trending yet he made such a play. there coud be a chance he is making a +EV move that i didnt know about

Hero wins $213


11 replies
Gerv
Joined: 07.05.2008

Depends on gameflow/history between individuals, how he perceives you statswise and his experience level.

You can measure the first two for sure so start there


some very winning reg occasionally tilt/spew. this could be one those spots


supeyrio
Joined: 11.11.2009

@Gerv: like i said i couldn't even remember any history between him and myself. i might have stacked him once, i think, but it was a proper one no suckouts whatsoever. then there's not much.

@i5bet72o: i don't even remember 3betting him too much since his fold to 3bet is not that high and he has a wts of 31%.


cindy1985
Joined: 13.11.2007

Probably a bad move from him, especially at this limit. Spewy, but not completely horrific either:

1 - say you 3B 6% of the time in this position
2 - say you fold everything but AKo, QQ+, ie you continue with roughly 45% of your range

Then his EV is:

EV = 0.55 * 15BB + 0.45 * (0.2*115BB - 0.8*97BB) = -16BB

It's a little worse here since you had more than 100BB, but if you add some 3Bet bluffs in your range... So he is investing 20BB in creating a spewy image and telling another regular not no 3B his LP raise lightly. Not that expensive in the end :)


Tim64
Joined: 03.11.2008

Well, it also depends on what you are calling with. You have the ultimate bluff catcher here, so you are always calling, but what other hands are you calling with?

If its not tilt, I expect he will also plan to do this with AA/KK in future vs you.

Overall, though, it looks pretty bad to me. :)


Gerv
Joined: 07.05.2008

Je think that EV is abit better than minus20bb. I tend to do this as well


supeyrio
Joined: 11.11.2009

@cindy1985: thanks for the calculation. but.. (refer to below)
@Tim64: yea i'm folding alot but obviously he has to be looking at his image as well. won't be 3betting him(he's not even BU) too lightly OOP with his type of WTS and fold to 3bet stat. 4b/f should suffice. and assuming i 3b lighter, i'm also getting it in vs 4b lighter as well. he's just burning $ that way hoping that i'm at the lower and of my range and get into a flip situation, which he's still behind.
also, i think that is a bad way to build a dynamic. just speaks of the state of the games today, preflop battles are the focused.

@Gerv: why do you tend to do this?


Gerv
Joined: 07.05.2008

I play 6max and not 9max but tend to be profitable in a vacuum qua futureEV


Hajler
Joined: 21.10.2008

What is the advantage of 4-bet shoving as opposed to a normal sized 4-bet? Without some history I don't think you are going to get 5-bet light anyways so aren't you just burning money when you get called? Is it just for image? And if so doesn't 4-bet/fold accomplish nearly the same thing?

@supeyrio:
I am also playing 100FR on stars so you have probably stacked me a few times. :f_biggrin:
Who was villain if you don't mind saying?


supeyrio
Joined: 11.11.2009

@Gerv: if you could share more about it? kQo is not even the top 10% of hands base on equilator.

@haijler: replied to you in blog. can't say too much about villian now that you're potentially one of the villians. seems like there are more and more stars players arnd. i need to reduce my posts here already. :f_mad:


Bierbaer
Joined: 27.05.2005

A small 4bet is a lot better than a shove because we have blockers and can easily 4bet/fold.

If he had for example 55 and wanted to 4bet he has to call a shove. In this case shoving himself can be better because we're never calling hands like AJ whereas we could 5betbluff with them - he's in for a split whereas when he shoves it hmself he gets us to fold our equity.