At no point did I mention chance.
My point is simply that doubling your buy in every time you lose is not a winning strategy long term for various reasons. Not in poker or in roulette.
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Originally posted by Bliausmas
Martingale is -EV. It would be zero EV if probability to win while betting on a color in roulette would be exactly 1/2, but unfortunately it is only 18/37. And casino is totally fine with that small edge as we all know
One person in this thread, who has some idea what he is talking about!
:f_biggrin:
Just one correction:
Roulette itself is -EV, so ANY SYSTEM on roulette is -EV.
For the sake of continuing the discussion I can add one interesting, even absurd, fact:
When you play roulette, you don't lose when you are losing. Losing is actually EV neutral, so to say. You put chips on wrong number, why would casino pay you!?
You lose, when you win, because if you put 1$ on number and that number comes up you get paid 36$ (your 1$ bet + 35$ more), but there are 37 numbers on the layout. So, your winning is only an illusion... you just lost 1$. Grats!
It is impossible to win at the game where you lose even when you win
p.s. AlCaTrAzzALZ, you have not included Zero in your graph, so your calculations are wrong. Nice try though
Originally posted by hackbinder
Apparently, if a casino sniffs this out you will get booted. And I've been told online casinos sniff this out too.
You don't get booted. Casinos love you. And dealers have fun placing private bets on how soon one color will come out 10 times in a row. :f_biggrin:
Also, I can break bad news (actually they are good news, because it might save you tons of money) for you and your father:
Casinos have sniffed this out about 100 years ago. That is why there are table maximum limits.
HU kinda reminds me of this because of the rake, when you win your opponent's stack you actually pay rake to the room, so it's less than a full stack, but if you lose your stack you lose it all. Guess you have to have a really big edge over your opponents to play them profitably ♦
Originally posted by EagleStar88
I would just point out that the law of probability means you will often have losing runs (i.e. same colour) 20+ times in a row, a lot more sometimes. You do realise how much you would have to bet during these runs just to win $1 profit back?
The chance to lose a flip 20 times in a row is arround 1 in a million.
I wouldn't say it counts as often 
Well, I PERSONALLY have dealt roulette game (yes, I was the dealer and actually did spun the ball) where black color did not show up for 28 spins! There were 2 zeros in between the reds, but no black!
When black finally came up on 29th spin, you can have a wild guess what number was that... Yes, it was number 29! 
You wanna count the odds of that? I cant be arsed... because when it comes to gambling, you can just throw out all the probability numbers and theories out of the window...
Originally posted by SilverSag
p.s. AlCaTrAzzALZ, you have not included Zero in your graph, so your calculations are wrong. Nice try thoughOh i'm sorry, you want to calculate the average winning streak on 0 spins? hmmm, let me work that one out for you... it must be 47!
Originally posted by AlCaTrAzzALZ
Originally posted by SilverSag
p.s. AlCaTrAzzALZ, you have not included Zero in your graph, so your calculations are wrong. Nice try thoughOh i'm sorry, you want to calculate the average winning streak on 0 spins? hmmm, let me work that one out for you... it must be 47!
No, I want you to calculate (if we are talking coin flip here) it according to the real situation:
On average every 37th flip there will be neither heads nor tails - the coin will stay on its side