Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
Hero ($77.70)
($68.75)
Dealt to Hero J♥ K♠
raises to $1.50, Hero calls $1
FLOP ($3) J♦ A♥ K♥
Hero checks, bets $2, Hero raises to $6.50, calls $4.50
TURN ($16) J♦ A♥ K♥ 4♦
Hero bets $13.50, calls $13.50
RIVER ($43) J♦ A♥ K♥ 4♦ 4♠
Hero bets $15, calls $15
results:
shows T♥ A♦
(Pre 60%, Flop 37.0%, Turn 27.3%)
Hero shows J♥ K♠
(Pre 40%, Flop 63.0%, Turn 72.7%)
wins $72.50
Hello conall88,
Preflop: First of all, depends what kind of opponent is he? How does he react to 3bets for example? Have you thought about that? Although just calling is totally fine as well. If he is anyways rather passive with his open-raise.
Flop: I might even do it a bit bigger like $8 for the reason that there are just so many draws and as well when he even does have the Ax he is most likely to pay us.
As played if flop was raised smaller
Turn: I actually like the donk, just to prevent him drawing or anything like that. We can never even be sure that he is Betting anyways with his Ace here. Might as well take pot control. One option would be to like Check/Call flop and then Check/Raise turn, although on such a flop I often times like to just Check/Raise right on flop for being so wet.
River: What's the plan about the small bet? I guess I am still betting for value like big time for the reason that when he even does have the Ace he is going to pay us, and with such a small block-bet did you plan to Bet/Fold it or what was your plan? I guess I'd make it like $28-$35, depending on how bad I see the opponent.
Best regards.
3bets preflop he folded about 50% of the time over 7 oppertunities or so. when he does call a 3bet pre, he is likely to call 2 barrels on all but the dryest of boards ( eg 3 
K 
3 
)
regarding the donk, I knew you'd like it 
,
I felt since he was so passive and loved to chase draws that protecting the hand was important, and was also a good way to get value. ( there was an example of a previous hand where he called a $16 bet into a $21 turn pot with a weak flush draw on a 3 club board and folded to a gaybet on river)
This particular villain folded very often to river aggression when last to act. I figured if I bet small the following could happen:
- he would shove any straight.
- he would consider calling with Jx+ hands <especially since the board paired on the river> which were drawing to the flush but missed
- he would occasionally spaz out and shove me with air/missed draws.
I feel i'm not missing out on value much because of this.
In the cases where the board is paired, I thought risking less $ made more sense.
in your opinion, in a vacuum , what does the betsize I use on the river mean to you?
-if I'm a TAG
- if I'm loose-aggro
- if I'm loose-passive
thanks a lot, i'm really liking your in depth analysis! 
3bets preflop he folded about 50% of the time over 7 oppertunities or so. when he does call a 3bet pre, he is likely to call 2 barrels on all but the dryest of boards ( eg 3 Heart K Diamond 3 Club )
If he is such a player then this means you rather have to 3bet against him rather with very strong hands and those hands with you rather take value from him postflop. This means KJ is likely better to just flat and play postflop against him if we hit.
I felt since he was so passive and loved to chase draws that protecting the hand was important, and was also a good way to get value. ( there was an example of a previous hand where he called a $16 bet into a $21 turn pot with a weak flush draw on a 3 club board and folded to a gaybet on river)
The problem with those passive players is that they are very likely going to Check behind on turn for pot control, even with Ace, that's also why I like the bet, to get value from draws and as well from Ax, would say like that kind of player will never fold here his Ace, as you mentioned about him calling a lot in 3bet pots then he is capable to Call it here as well.
- if I'm a TAG
This will be very often a value-bet, which might try to block-bet his some 2pair type of hands which he ain't sure either they are ahead or not. Sometimes even with very good reads and stats I might even just shove and turn my hand into bluff but this is rare situation since for those kind of moves you must have like very good reads. And if I had AT there, I might even consider folding being better there against that line.
- if I'm loose-aggro
Even a loose aggressive player likely will have a hand here after this line but I guess he may still even play this way his some strong draws and maybe tries to 3barrel to make us fold Ax type of hand. And if I had myself AT hand, it would be even against him very close Call.
- if I'm loose-passive
Loose passive will likely always have a very strong hand there and we can likely even consider folding our AT there. Not much we beat, we could even fold it right on turn.
