[Closed] SDW/NSDW Winnings

that second graph just surprised me lol is that 6 max ?

Nah, it´s fullring, I tried completely different approach and this is how it looks. But it is only small sample, so maybe I was just lucky ♠_cool:

There is a strange obsession with the nonshowdown winnings. They are not independent of showdown winnings.

Let's suppose it's the river, you have position, your opponent checks, and you made a low flush with a 4-flush on the board. Most of your opponent's range (80%) consists of weak made hands which will not call a bet. You are not sure whether to bet for value or not. Maybe 10% of the time you will be called by worse, and 10% of the time you will be called by better. This means betting will not have a large effect on your total profit. However, it will have a huge effect on your nonshowdown winnings versus showdown winnings.

If you bet, your opponent folds his weak hands, so you win the current pot in the nonshowdown category 80% of the time (netting perhaps half of that).

If you check behind, those weak hands simply lose at showdown, so you win the current pot in the showdown category against those hands.

So, a marginal play can take money out of the showdown category and put it into the nonshowdown category, or vice versa. Plays which move money into the nonshowdown category are not necessarily good plays, because they simultaneously take money away from your showdown winnings. What determines whether the value bet is correct is whether you will get called 11% by worse and 9% by better, or vice versa, not what the effect is on your red line.

Here is another example: You have the nut low. Your opponent pushes on the river. What's better for your red line, calling or folding? Call so the loss gets moved to the showdown winnings. But if you like money, fold.

How much money would you pay to have a positive red line? Would you be willing to take $30 out of the showdown winnings to increase your nonshowdown winnings by $20? The right focus for me is on winning money, not on having an exciting nonshowdown profit. I think it is a mistake to concentrate on nonshowdown winnings instead of total profit.

Oh I see now. Anyway, I still think the red line can be influenced by bluffing, stealing and restealing and few more things, which doesn´t affect the blue line. And therefore increasing the overall winnings. Is that correct?

When you make a marginal bluff, steal, resteal, or value bet, this action will affect both your nonshowdown winnings and your showdown winnings. For example, suppose you bluff $150 into a $300 pot on the river, and this will work the break-even 1/3 of the time so it doesn't affect your profit. Your alternative was to give up, and put a $150 loss in the showdown category (your half of the $300 pot). What happens if you bluff? A third of the time, your bluff works and you get a $150 win in the nonshowdown category. 2/3 of the time your bluff is called and you lose $300 in the showdown category. So, your average result if you bluff is (+$50 nonshowdown, -$200 showdown) instead of ($0 nonshowdown, -$150 showdown). The difference is (+$50 nonshowdown, -$50 showdown). On average that bluff takes $50 from the showdown category and puts the same amount into the nonshowdown category.

A marginally unprofitable bluff takes a little more out of your showdown winnings than it puts into the nonshowdown category. A marginally profitable bluff puts a little more into the nonshowdown category than it withdraws from your showdown category. If your goal is to make money, you need to compare the amounts, not make every bluff which improves your red line, which would be almost all of them.

I win money over all, and I have a negative red line. I have nonshowdown winnings from every position except the blinds, and my nonshowdown losses from the blinds are smaller than the blinds I post. Check whether your nonshowdown losses (say, under the first style) come from posting the blinds rather than from not making fancy plays elsewhere.

Many of my opponents overdefend the blinds. If they want to call a raise out of position with J6s, this means I don't collect the blinds as a nonshowdown win. However, it means they are going to take a weak hand to showdown some of the time, which increases my overall profits. Should I improve my red line by overdefending the blinds like my opponents? I don't think so. I'm happy with my results defending the blinds much less often than my losing opponents do.

Uff, thank you for sorting this thing out for me. You are totally right. My NSDW form every position except blinds are positive, which means that NSDW loses are mostly because of the blinds. Not so long ago I was trying to steal, defend and bluff kind of loose in hope that I will increase my overall winnings, but that did not happen. Now I know why.
I am glad we have you coaches around here ♠_love: