[Closed] Theoretical question on SSS.

Well, I am not an EV specialist, but from what I know It is almost imposible to calculate average EV in such situations... you have to make very general assumtions, while the real EV will depend on three variables:

- your opponent
- your equity
- your fold equity...

maybe something esle that I missed

But obviously this move is +EV...

If you want to calcualte EV, I think you have to do something like this:

Pot: 13BB
Stack: 13BB

- assume he folds to our push 40% of the time -> we win 0.4*(13BB)= 5.2BB
- assume we have on average 33% equity against his range, so if he calls in remaining 60% of the time we win 0.33*(26BB)= 8.58BB and loose 0.67*(13BB)= 8.71 BB. Our EV = 5.2BB + 0.6*(8.6BB - 8.7BB) ~ 5.2 BB

I think its correct, but I am not totally sure. But you can have a picture at least...

I think you are kinda EV specialist ♦
I try to figure something out myself given your instructions.
Fold equity for easier assumption is 0. He calls when he has something, and folds otherwise, like you calculated.

Why do you need this? I mean, you won`t be able to calculate anything usefull) Still, too many assumptions to make... even if you figure out how often he will catch the piece of the flop, you will still have to assume the average equity) and the last one is very abstract... So if you understand the general idea, than its ok...

Im just curious, as it seems to me they play this against me quite often. Generally i got the picture. Just i thought some1 smarter than me, can make 2-4 hand ranges against our hand ranges with this criterias. Seems like too complicated. For example a person with 15%VPIP playing against us with this strategy, or a 20%VPIP person, and like a 30%.

Originally posted by Utahmar
Just i thought some1 smarter than me, can make 2-4 hand ranges against our hand ranges with this criterias. Seems like too complicated.

Well, you can`t really calculate the average equity, because it will differ from flop to flop) The best you can do is to assume average flop (like Ace rag rainbow), but even though, your calculations won`t be much usefull)
Its way more interesting to calcualte EV in particular hand, where you have information available and can make more or less accurate assumtions based on your opponent's statistics... This way you can try to figure out which postflop line has more EV in particular hand, for instance...

I thought, maybe we can do it like this: (i am not sure :))

Assumptions:

- we raise from MP with a range 99+, AQs+, AQo+
- player in BU will call with a range 22-99, AQs-ATs, KJs+, AQo-ATo, KJo+
- blinds are raked

- he folds in 60% of the time to our cbet
- he calls the rest 40%
- flop play is constant, meaning only 1 scenario -> we push - he calls (40%) or folds (60%)
- our equity against his range 67% (the real one)

Pot on flop: 13BB
Stack: 13BB

EV = 0.6*(13BB) + 0.4*(0.67*(26BB) - 0.33*(13BB))= 7.8 + 5.2 = 13BB

I thought something like this, yes, thanks.
Its clearly +.
Could you check my DB ? Im not unpatient, just didnt have other contact for you to ask.

I did some analize, but only on today hands .
I think my play from blinds are very bad. I lost a lot of money here.
From 868 hands i played.
When i filter to VPIP hands i earned +4.53$. ( Even tho I lost 4 allins, and won only 1 ). I was at least 50 50 in all situations or better. Still i won some.
BUT
I lost 31.25$ from the blinds ( either folded before, or on the flop ).