[Closed] NL50 FR - KK, very tight villain

You have overpair and only hand that beats you is QQ. Why check on the turn and give him free river card. I would probably play stacks on the flop.

I´d bet/call the flop and turn. As said by Kaitz20, only hand that beats you is QQ, because his reraise pf doesn´t indicate small pockets and he didn´t show any sign of strenght after the flop.
No point in giving him a free card.

I opted to give him a free card because of the range I put him in.

If he has AK, he only has 3 outs to beat me, so no big risk in giving a free card, after all, he's not calling a raise anyway. But he may be tempted to bluff, besides that, If he catches the last King, I stack him.

If he has JJ, he only has 2 outs, even less risk in giving a free card, and with the Q out there it becomes difficult for him to call a raise, but by checking I may induce a bluff.

If he has QQ, I'm the one who's behind and got only 2 outs. So I'm the one who wants free cards and want to keep the pot as small as possible.

So, IMO, I got a hand who doesn't need protection so I decided to try and control the size of the pot.

@Kaitz20: Why play for stacks? We are both deep stacked and QQ is probably the only hand who's gonna be willing to play for it.

@Gungunhana: It's true, he didn't show any sign of strength on the flop nor the turn. But anyone can slowplay a set (even though I don't think it's a good play), there are even some crazy guys who will do it until the river is dealt.

@Kaitz20: Why play for stacks? We are both deep stacked and QQ is probably the only hand who's gonna be willing to play for it.

I've seen people go for it with Ace Queen...

AQ is the only hand I think would justify betting. But given PF action and villain's stats, I think it's very unlikely he's holding it, don't you?

Suppose if an A falls on the turn then you will open fold regardless.

ie. You lose 3/47*$23.5=$1.50 on average by allowing a free-card.

If your opponent bluffs $15 on the turn 10% of the time then you gain $1.50 and checking and betting have the same EV.

It all depends here on how likely/much your opponent is bluffing on the turn. Obviosly never give a free card to one who doesn't bluff often enough.

I may be wrong but... aren't you guys completely disregarding pot control here?

@Nunki: If an Ace falls onthe turn and he bets on the turn, given his stats I'm folding cause I don't think he'd bet with JJ with overcards on the board, that's true.

But let's see one thing, when an Ace doesn't fall, I win 44/47*23.5=$22 on average... plus a little bit more when he decides to bet his AK or JJ unimproved.
Maybe he doesn't bluff too much, but betting JJ here is not exactly a bluff, only one overcard on the board, and I could be holding AK.

So, I don't think checking and betting have the same EV when villain bluffs 15% of the time.

3bet pf and no conti bet?
Conti bet always. Then if u get called you should think about pot control but I don't think it's needed here. You're either way ahead or way behind and you can only find that out if you bet.

Bet Flop, bet turn. If he has AA - nice hand...

Originally posted by Thorsten77
Bet Flop, bet turn. If he has AA - nice hand...

I still don't get why I should bet all the way and play for my whole stack here. I don't see worse hands he'd be willing to put a big chunk of his stack in the middle with that board.

If he has QQ or AA, villain would definetly bet with those hands and you would most likely play for stacks. I can understand why to check flop behind but when he checks 2nd time on turn, I definetly valuebet turn & push river.

True, I'm missing a valuebet on the turn, I see it. But if villain is a somewhat decent player, and I think he is, he's not calling a push on the river with JJ or AK.

Actually I don't even think he's calling a bet on the turn with AK, but since he's not overagressive, he's probably not bluffing the river with AK anyway. So I'm better off betting the turn.

But why push river?

offtopic, Faye6891 how come u play on that limit as a bronze member ? upswing ? playing your own money ?

Originally posted by comon
offtopic, Faye6891 how come u play on that limit as a bronze member ? upswing ? playing your own money ?

https://forums.pokerstrategy.com/forum/thread.php?threadid=10669

But if you're not in the mood to read... I'm gonna be quick.
It's my own money, I started playing for strategy points now in december, actually I think I already made silver but it's taking some time to update.
Don't want to go too off topic here.

Maybe you can check behind the flop (but then, be aware that you balance your line, i.e., against reasonable opponents, you also have to check behind QQ in this spot to be not readable), but I don't think he checks two times with a monster in this spot. I wanna "protect" against an A and get value from JJ.