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[Closed] Top 2 pairs 3 way

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Dublimax
Joined: 22.11.2008

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $1(BB) Replayer
SB ($112)
Hero ($150)
UTG ($101) VP:21/PFR:15/AF:2.1/WTSD:26
UTG+1 ($107)
CO ($33)
BTN ($114) VP:19/PFR:15/AF:3.6/WTSD:23

Dealt to Hero Q♥ K♥

UTG raises to $3, fold, fold, BTN calls $3, fold, Hero calls $2

FLOP ($9.50) Q♠ 4♥ K♦

Hero checks, UTG bets $7.12, BTN calls $7.12, Hero raises to $24, UTG folds, BTN raises to $49, Hero raises to $147 (AI), BTN calls $62.08 (AI)

TURN ($238) Q♠ 4♥ K♦ 7♠

RIVER ($238) Q♠ 4♥ K♦ 7♠ J♦

I think that BU can have AK here since it is UTG opens. Apart from that he has a set always. Also I have blockers to KK,QQ.

Board: Kd4hQs
Equity Win Tie
MP2 59.18% 59.03% 0.16% { KhQh }
MP3 40.82% 40.66% 0.16% { KK-QQ, 44, AKs, AKo }

Obviously if I remove AK I am drawing dead (18%)


11 replies
EmmaDauwe
Joined: 10.05.2010

I think broke is fine. He can protect his hand and overplay it. Or AA.
What he had?


Shevtshenko
Joined: 06.12.2009

Button isn't going broke vs. your c/r with AK, ~ever.


Dublimax
Joined: 22.11.2008

Originally posted by Shevtshenko
Button isn't going broke vs. your c/r with AK, ~ever.

Not sure.
If BU fold with AK, then C/R with any 2 cards becomes profitable because I would get 3B only vs 44,QQ,KK.

I could consider C/C then to keep worse hand in?


Shevtshenko
Joined: 06.12.2009

Originally posted by Dublimax

Originally posted by Shevtshenko
Button isn't going broke vs. your c/r with AK, ~ever.

Not sure.
If BU fold with AK, then C/R with any 2 cards becomes profitable because I would get 3B only vs 44,QQ,KK.

I could consider C/C then to keep worse hand in?

c/r is prly profitable with atc here (pending images obv). Yet, I'm not saying that villain isn't calling your c/r with worse hands.

With just the given stats, I'd donk on the flop.


Bierbaer
Joined: 27.05.2005

I'd either fold or squeeze preflop.
There's no point in playing OOP vs 2 regs as you'll never be in a great +EV spot but it can get nasty on K high and Qhigh boards when somebody has AQ or AK.
Generally you won't bluff postflop because it's 3way and with 2p+ or strong draws you only get action if they have monsters because the board is so connected/scary that they won't pay off light.

So the only thing you can hope for is straight over straight or flush over flush, and those don't happen often enough to justify the call pre.

Originally posted by Dublimax

Originally posted by Shevtshenko
Button isn't going broke vs. your c/r with AK, ~ever.

Agree. It doesn't make sense for him to 3bet IP, I'd expect him to either call or fold AK vs the c/r 100% of the time.

Not sure.
If BU fold with AK, then C/R with any 2 cards becomes profitable because I would get 3B only vs 44,QQ,KK.
Disagree. That would only be the case if he'd fold a lot of stuff, but he plays AK, 44, QQ and KK like this as well as JTs.
Since he doesn't fold JT and AK every time AND UTG is still there, the atc-checkraise is likely to be -EV.

I could consider C/C then to keep worse hand in?
Yes, once we got to the flop I'd also either lead or c/c because a checkraise looks so strong. Even though above I said that an any2-checkraise is not profitable and therefore there might be some value in checkraising, I think it's still not too much because both their ranges are somewhat narrow and contain 44 as well as QQ and KK.

Vs the 3bet I'm folding.
He never 3bets AK here so he either has JTs or a set, and imo with JTs most people would not 3bet because our checkraise is so strong that they expect to not have any foldequity.


Shevtshenko
Joined: 06.12.2009

Generally you won't bluff postflop because it's 3way and with 2p+ or strong draws you only get action if they have monsters because the board is so connected/scary that they won't pay off light.

You're kidding right?


EmmaDauwe
Joined: 10.05.2010

Kings and Queens aren't likely, because you have them.

I like the leading part and check call.

Also the squueze or fold.


AlexGerasim
Joined: 19.01.2009

After your x/r flop I'd fold any hand except sets and QK. So why you should raise on a pretty dry board insteed of just x/c?


Bierbaer
Joined: 27.05.2005

Originally posted by Shevtshenko

Generally you won't bluff postflop because it's 3way and with 2p+ or strong draws you only get action if they have monsters because the board is so connected/scary that they won't pay off light.

You're kidding right?

No, why?

Originally posted by AlexGerasim
After your x/r flop I'd fold any hand except sets and QK. So why you should raise on a pretty dry board insteed of just x/c?

I see your point, but still if we just c/c it will be very hard to get value, we probably have to lead the turn because the opponents 2ndbarreling-range will be narrow and I don't think we'll get them to pay off much lighter vs this line - but 2 people get a free card.

So both, c/c and c/r aren't that optimal, as said above a lead is probably the best option.


Shevtshenko
Joined: 06.12.2009

Why on earth we wouldn't bluff vs two tags oop?


Bierbaer
Joined: 27.05.2005

Well i'm not saying we're never going to bluff and ofc since we say it's hard to get value there have to be some good bluffingopportunities.
So let me rephrase: I think it's -EV to overcall OOP preflop because we won't get much value postflop and even though we can bluff postflop sometimes we will generally not find enough spots to compensate for the call preflop.