[Closed] I'm a fish: How do I calculate implied odds?

my thoughts on this and the 4/1 pot odds example given

the real question is how much has to be in the pot in relation with remaining effective stacks

if we take that example , suppose we do have at least 20% there for river card and we call the turn bet of 2500 from villain.

now, right before the river card hits effective stacks are 2500 and pot is 10000.
suppose the river hits the card we need. if the villain see now a flush card on river (or a somehow connected card coming on river), you bet your rest and villain gets 5 to 1 .

i have 3 questions now for ya

1.do you think he will fold?

2. what would you do ?

3. how often do you think he will fold in that a situation? ( in % please)

hope that helps

Well, if I understand Shev, he wants to distinguish two things:

1. How to calculate (in $ or bb) how much extra he has to extract to make a draw playable.

2. How to estimate implied odds (i.e. how likely it is that villain will invest the amount calculated in 1.)

Because they are different things.

It's possible to calculate (using the formulas above) how much of villain's remaining stack he has to give us in order to make the draw playable without direct odds. Whether or not villain will in fact invest this amount is not something that can be calculated but something that has to be estimated.

For the purposes of doing the calculation we make an assumption that we can only win if we hit our draw and that are never able to bluff our opponent (i.e. win the pot) when we miss. The fact that we will sometimes have the best hand when we make a pair and we will sometimes be able to bluff our opponent (as Phzon described) simply means that on average we can discount the amount calculated in 1. by some factor (which itself needs to be estimated).

But it does seem to me to be useful exercise to be able to work out, as a base, how much extra we must extract (as long as we go on to consider the other variables and don't just take the calculation as sufficient in isolation.)

hey Guys :),

The other thing is that not always should you include villain's entire stack when counting on implied odds. The reason is that, for instance, wide ranges can't be really be expected to contain a significant % of very strong hands (from the defition it is already straightforward).

Cheers,
Michal

I thikn the formula would be like this

implied odds = 100 * (1 - (ntc / (ps + oss * k))) formula in percentages.

where:
ntc - amount needed to call.
ps - pot size
oss - oponen stack size
k - is the coeficient is between 0 and 1 that varies depending on factors, how much ot the stack your oponent are willing to pay. (0 if none of the money, 1 - if all stack)

I thikn that you are interested exactly in this k number. How high it is can be.
You can't calculated it just simple. But I wonder can it be calculated like and optimum average value for example examinate 10k hands in these situations and calculate and average.

I doubt that somebody has done it. Maby it is worth to try? Anny comments would be appretiate.