[Closed] Hem Ev

groundbreaking news

The luck adjustment in HEM (and other programs) correctly adjusts for some of the luck. It does not adjust for all forms of luck such as getting coolered. It is still an improvement which reduces the amount of data you need to get an accurate estimate of your ROI, and it does not introduce significant biases.

If you play turbo 9-player SNGs, the luck adjustment might reduce your variance by 55%. That means instead of having to play 1000 tournaments to get a 95% confidence interval of +- 10% ROI, you get that level of accuracy after only about 450 tournaments.

By the way, it's a great idea to use SNG Wizard to study particular decisions. If you adjust the ranges well, SNG Wizard is very good at telling you whether your call was correct, and by how much. However, if you feed the wrong ranges into SNG Wizard, such as by assuming that your opponents are pushing ATC when they are actually pushing a 40% range, then you can lose money while you make the plays SNG Wizard says are right according to your assumptions. When you assume that your opponent has a range which differs from his actual range, you are introducing a bias.

HEM's all-in luck adjustment is only supposed to have a negligible bias from card removal effects, that the deck is not uniformly random after the players outside the blinds fold. It may be incorrectly implemented (and might introduce a bias) in some multiway pots or in multitable SNGs, or perhaps some STTs with unusual prize structures.

Well ... I will just write down an example and please be so kind and tell me what's wrong. (I have plenty of these hands so I will just take a random one)

Poker Stars $6.45+$0.55 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t100/t200 Blinds - 6 players - View hand 1377644
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

Hero (CO): t1615 8.07 BBs
BTN: t4515 22.57 BBs
SB: t2095 10.47 BBs
BB: t2640 13.20 BBs
UTG: t1605 8.03 BBs
MP: t1030 5.15 BBs

Pre Flop: (t300) Hero is CO with Q A
2 folds, Hero raises to t1615 all in, 1 fold, SB raises to t2095 all in, 1 fold

Flop: (t3430) K K T (2 players - 2 are all in)

Turn: (t3430) 4 (2 players - 2 are all in)

River: (t3430) J (2 players - 2 are all in)

The HEM's EV diff is:

-$7,79

How is it possible? I don't even have to open SNG wiz to know that this push is HIGHLY profitable... So then what's wrong?

You are correct, HEM's EV-line is not punctual.

But it eliminates a certain percentage of the luck - if you don't even calculate with ICM, but only chipEV, then you will get even worse results.
HEM's EV eliminates some of the luck. There is no point in looking at the EV-line on a 20, sometimes not even on a 100 SnG sample, but it get6s closer to your actual ROI faster than the "green line", your winnings. So if say you play 1000 SnGs and you are breakeven but your EV line is in +3% ROI then it is more likely that your ROI is positive even though there might be many flaws regarding the EV-line.

Hope that made sense.

Regards,
akrammon

This is not a failure of HEM. This is just something you find counterintuitive.

Suppose you get all-in with 50% equity so that winning is worth $10 and losing is worth $0. How lucky are you if you win? On that hand, you were lucky by $5. If you lose, you were unlucky by $5 worth. This has nothing do do with whether your push was correct, or whether you were unlucky to get called by that hand.

There are many sources of luck in the game. Did you get dealt AA? Did someone have a hand good enough to give your AA action? Did your AA hold up after the money went in? HEM correctly estimates the third type of luck. It doesn't have to estimate the first or second type of luck for it to be helpful to remove the third type.