Hey guys,
I busted last night after only about 30mins in a live tournament (at level 2). Everyone at the table told me I couldnt get away from my hand, but after rethinking it clearly I figured that any pro would have gotten away and I could have myself if I had taken the time to analyse the situation correctly.
blinds 200/400 Average chip stack in tournament is about 22k
97players out of 100 remaining
(Im putting aproximate stack sizes)
SB (17k)
BB (17k)
UTG1 (17k)
Hero (28k)
UTG3 (15k)
MP1 (40k)
MP2 (21k)
Hijack (38K)
CO (13K)
Dealer (12K)
Hero is dealt AA
UTG1 Calls 400, Hero raises to 1200, UTG3 Calls, MP1 Calls, Dealer Calls, Fold, Fold, UTG1 Calls.
Flop comes
T8Q rainbow.
UTG1 Snap raises to 4.2k, Hero Shoves all in 28K, Fold,Fold, Dealer Shoves all in 12K, UTG Snap calls.
I still feel lots of pressure in live games so I cant think as well as on the internet. After the hand I realised that I didnt even take time to consider what UTG1's raise could mean or what other players could have been holding, I just snap shoved in a situation where some thinking is necessary.
THE THOUGHT PROCESSUS I SHOULD HAVE DONE DURING THE HAND.
UTG1 Bet 80% of pot in a 5handed pot. She could be betting to protect a hand like AQ/QT, from the possible straight draw. I cant put her on AQ because she limped and well who the fuck would limp AQ from UTG1. I can however put her on QTs, the kind of hand a fishy player would want to limp. The only hand I beat that she could be protecting is AQ. I dont think she would limp AT and I really dont think she would bet that much with AT unless T was the Top Pair here.
If she is betting for value, which she is most of the time I think here because it is a 5way pot and someone is bound to pay her off with something like Top Pair. She could hold AA/KK and have been trapping preflop, but Im pretty sure she would have made a big 3bet preflop.
Hence, considering all of the above, the bet size and the number of players in the hand. I can put her on J9s/JJ/TT/QQ/88 maybe KJ her on this range, that means im only beating JJ/KJ and she is folding those hands to a 3bet.
Also, all of the hands are in the range of the 4 players behind me. Thus, I think the right move here is folding.
Please let me know if this thinking processus is justifiable. Also, for those interested. I busted on a hand like 4 hands later. Shoved vs 2 limpers from Dealer position with AJs, they both called with KJ and TJ and one suckedout =X.
Sorry for wall of text! Thanks for reading! ♦
EDIT: I forgot to mention that the size of the preflop raise was obviously a mistake, should have made it 1.8k-2k, but once again I feel underpressure when playign live tournaments and dont take enough time to think clearly =/