What are huge swings? 20bin? 30bin?
Are there any proof that his style is minimizing variance, or has he been just lucky?
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maybe making a tonne from non-showdown winnings rather than going to showdown? think that would decrease variance.
You can't make a ton out of nonSD and decide not to go to showdowns at the same time. Cos in order to rise your nonSD you need to bluff a lot postflop. And when you make bluffs at turn/river, there will be a spots where you just need to get the money in. Unless you bluff with total air and you can fold no matter what pot odds you get. But if you play mid-to-high stakes, and bet/raise-fold a ton, I am 100% sure that most villains will pick that up.
Remember, he could also have 300K hand heater. That wouldn't be such a miracle after all. Just play with variance simulator, and put 1bb/100 winrate and 150bb/100 std dev to it and see what kind of graphs it gives. I bet most of you would be amazed by the results.
Originally posted by Kyyberi
You can't make a ton out of nonSD and decide not to go to showdowns at the same time. Cos in order to rise your nonSD you need to bluff a lot postflop. And when you make bluffs at turn/river, there will be a spots where you just need to get the money in. Unless you bluff with total air and you can fold no matter what pot odds you get. But if you play mid-to-high stakes, and bet/raise-fold a ton, I am 100% sure that most villains will pick that up.Remember, he could also have 300K hand heater. That wouldn't be such a miracle after all. Just play with variance simulator, and put 1bb/100 winrate and 150bb/100 std dev to it and see what kind of graphs it gives. I bet most of you would be amazed by the results.
tur its sick what variance can bring. some might have 200k BE some migh have it 6bb/100 on that. hard to belive that even 1mil hands wont be an accurate sample by these graphs. Any one intrested to variance heres variance simulator
Bit got scared
Yeah, breakeven players might have HUGE difference to their "expected" winnings. I think that everyone should play a little with that simulator, to understand what it can be. In 100K hands you can win or lose sick amounts, no matter what your true skills are. And for most non-professional players that 100K hands might be couple of years.
Originally posted by Kyyberi
Yeah, breakeven players might have HUGE difference to their "expected" winnings. I think that everyone should play a little with that simulator, to understand what it can be. In 100K hands you can win or lose sick amounts, no matter what your true skills are. And for most non-professional players that 100K hands might be couple of years.
But guys, if this is so (I'm not arguing, because I really don't know the answer to the question), how does a professional live PLO player manage this variance stuff? If he plays 30 hands an hour or so, then a 30k hands bad run can blow him off quite quickly, can't it?
Well, how many live plo professionals you know? 
And if you have played live PLO in casinos, you would be amazed how bad players there are.
In that previous graph, std dev 80bb/100 is pretty small imo. I think that 130-150 is normal for 6max PLO.