A Blog to Somewhere: March Results

Originally posted by MadzunaR
Gratz on milestone completion m8 and for being consisent in times when things dont look good

Im following yours and Taavi blogs with great interest, since im trying to do the same thing, climb in FLSH stakes and start making some profit. Used to play FR only from time to time (and experimented with NL,PLO aswell) but now i will try to concentrate on SH only and learn the game.

Keep up the good work and remember that hard work always pays off.

Thanks for the kind words MadzunaR,

Good call on following Taavi's blog. If you're interested in FL 6-max games then I'm sure you'll find some gold in those posts, especially if you're playing small/micro stakes.

Ahh, Nothing like a tough coaching session to remind me how much of a poker newb I really am!

We met up for a 1.5 hr session, discussed how terrible my current HUD set up is and how much better it could be, and then discussed how terrible it is that I haven't purchased hands/stats on my opponents - and consequentially how terrible my seat selection was for the session we reviewed. No number of excuses would stem the tide: ultimately, It's my responsibility.

Afterward, we discussed how I misplayed several hands, folding in situations where I should not fold, calling in situations where I should not call, AND betting in situations where I should not bet. I'm quite certain we would have come around to checking in situations where I should not check, but we ran out of time

I had hoped this session would be challenging. Next time I'll be more careful, but its all for the best I'm sure. After all,

Nobody stands taller than those willing to stand corrected.
- William Safire

In response I've added a couple new goals for the month.

Originally posted by datsmahname
September Goals
[~220] Get back Gold Status on PS.
[-] 5 HU SNGs
[x] 2-3 Coachings (1 PPC next week?)
[6.5K] 20K Hands (75% @ new stakes, aiming for +2BB/100)
[x] 1+ article(s)
[x] 2-3 session reviews
[ ] New HUD~! (spend 4+ hours on it)
[ ] Get Stats~! (invest in some hands)

I see you doing well at 1/2. Keep it up!

Originally posted by PostFlopMonster
I see you doing well at 1/2. Keep it up!

Thanks PFM, much appreciated. I've been putting in a lot of time to learn lately and things have gone my way often enough to produce some good results. Just gonna keep working hard and hopefully crush my way to 2/4.

How's your game coming along?

A while ago I reworked my HUD, but despite my efforts it kind of sucked. After a couple revisions I'm now getting used to my new set up.

Since my last post I've done 4 session reviews, 1 coaching to get some feedback on my HUD, and attended the Silver FL coaching.

I've also played most of my heads up matches for the month. I find these to be really challenging to play in high volumes. Its only around 120 hands per match, but you play 90% of the hands at 240 hands/hr. There's also no break between decisions. You're always next to act.

Compare that to my usual 34% VPIP, 150 hands/hr and HU SNGs are one hell of a mental work out. I guess its only just occurred to me how valuable playing HU matches can be in this context. I'm going to make a note of that & from now on I'll play more of them each month.

Only about 10k hands now, 7.5k at 1/2... but I've put in roughly the same amount of hours as last month and I'm happy to be playing fewer tables right now.

Basically the only thing I haven't done is buy hands for 1/2. I was hoping that PTR accepted moneybookers payments - they don't. Moving money from a poker site to MB to my bank account then to papal just to buy hands is really stupid. It'd cost me more than double with all the transfer fees. I'll have to find a better option.

Biology is the only science in which multiplication is the same thing as division.

Why did the chicken cross the road?
Hippocrates: Because of an excess of light pink gooey stuff in its pancreas.

Why did the chicken cross the road?
George Washington Carver: To plant peanuts.

Why did the chicken cross the road?
Gregor Mendel: (1) To get various strains of roads. (2) It was dominant.

There was this biologist who was doing some experiments with frogs. He
was measuring just how far frogs could jump. So he puts a frog on a line
and says "Jump frog, jump!". The frog jumps 2 feet. He writes in his
lab book: 'Frog with 4 legs - jumps 2 feet'.

Next he chops off one of the legs and repeats the experiment. "Jump frog
jump!" he says. The frog manages to jump 1.5 feet. So he writes in his
lab book: 'Frog with 3 legs - jumps 1.5 feet'.

He chops off another and the frog only jumps 1 foot. He writes in his
book: 'Frog with 2 legs jumps 1 foot'.

He continues and removes yet another leg. " Jump frog jump!" and the
frog somehow jumps a half of a foot. So he writes in his lab book again:
'Frog with one leg - jumps 0.5 feet'.

Finally he chops off the last leg, puts the frog on the line and
tells it to jump. "Jump frog, jump!". The frog doesn't move. "Jump
frog, jump!!!". Again the frog stays on the line. "Come on frog,
jump!". But to no avail.

The biologist finally writes in his book: 'Frog with no legs - goes deaf'

September Goals
[x] Get back Gold Status on PS. (it'll show in a few days)
[x] 5 HU SNGs
[6] 2-3 Coachings
[11k] 20K Hands
[x] 75% @ new stakes, aiming for +2BB/100
[x] 1+ article(s)
[6] 2-3 session reviews
[x] Get a New Hud
[ ] Get Stats (invest in some 1/2 hands)

+$40 tournament earnings
~ $1200

In 3 consecutive months I've managed to top my all time highest monthly earnings. To a significant extent these results can be attributed to a decent run of cards. However, I've put in a lot of hard work on my game and feel confident that its paying off.

While I still want to improve my hand volume, moving up in stakes and focusing on fewer tables has been much more important and falling short of my hand goal is acceptable for this reason. Once I've developed a lot of good reads on the player pool I'll try bumping it back up to 4 tables.

Mid month I did express some concerns for the way I'd been feeling. I'm still working on that. Over the last weeks I've done simple little things like finding ways to appreciate others, keeping my apartment a little cleaner than usual, finding new music that I enjoy, and going for walks a bit more. I've also sought some advice from a very qualified Sports Psychologist and Mental Coach, Jared Tendler. At some later time I'll probably write a blog entry on this topic.

October Goals
[ ] Play 13k hands
[ ] 10k hands at 1/2 (20K/50k for 2011 Milestone)
[ ] Calculate the risk of ruin for moving up to 2/4, Evaluate options.
[ ] 2+ Gold Articles
[ ] 4+ Session Reviews
[ ] 2+ Coaching Sessions
[ ] 9+ HU SNGs (play 3 per HU session)
[ ] 500+ PokerStrategy Points, Gold Status
[ ] Find suitable Rewards for completing these tasks.

Is this 1/2 and lower only? 500+ BB in 11k hands is erm... awesome?

Now let's crush 2/4

Hey taavi,

Yeah at 1/2 i ran 6.25BB/100 over 7.8K hands. Given the sample size and results I think its just a really good run. I think my expected BB/100 might be around 2-3 and possibly more if I keep working hard. Lifetime I sit around +2.5 BB/100 at .5/1 and above.

As for crushing 2/4... I think its a strong possibility if we keep working through session reviews, and I also meet weekly with another really solid reg. Those study sessions seem to help more than just about everything right now. Coaching sessions with AdamantHQ are amazing and really insightful, but I think its only later on through hard work that things sink in.

April 17th, 2005

22:34 "Now, I don't want to make mountains out of mole hills but whether its 15 minutes or 15 hours he's out of my life as far as I'm concerned."

23:25 "You know when your a kid you have more REM sleep than when you're an adult... Maybe you stop wetting the bed because you're not missing anything."

23:29 "Life is a long ride. At 30,000 feet there's nothing wrong with asking for a pillow. I'm not trying to be coy, I'm just talking about comfort."

23:31 "Some people say life is only the beginning. How would they explain others who are always afraid they're missing out?"

23:33 "... but I'm not finished. It isn't worth reading something that's not finished is it? Then again, it's not as if you're going to be able to edit my life."

When I sat down to write I intended to talk about how I haven't been studying much, but come to think of it I've been studying like crazy this week. Two videos, a session review, three coaching sessions, an article, and one quiz. Not to shabby.

Tonight's contribution included the gold article and quiz on freecard raises, and a midstakes HU session review with my coach, AdamantHQ. AdamantHQ's a member of PokerStrategy's Russian staff and specializes in midstakes Heads Up, Limit cash games.

It was really interesting to go through his heads up match and really focus on constantly developing reads (data collection) starting from early on against an unknown opponent and make reasonable/appropriate assumptions based on these reads (data analysis/interpretation). Finally, we have to progressively adapt our play without over adjusting (conclusions/application of findings).

Of course, this is easier said than done and requires a massive amount of practice and hard work to do well at game speed. In reality, all three processes will occur simultaneously with each and every decision a pro makes; A truly impressive feat.

An added benefit of these coaching sessions, as with session reviews, is that its a good way for me to build confidence and improve discipline. Even though I'm constantly learning new material, I often find myself reviewing fundamental concepts to help keep my game on track and both of these elements are vital for skill development. Without these training exercises I think it would be all to easy to fall back on natural tendencies or even develop bad habits that will cost me a lot of money in the long run.

With all that said, I'm going to take 5, clean up my desk and then play some poker!

Originally posted by datsmahname
October Goals...
[x] Find suitable Rewards for completing these tasks.

I've decided that if i complete all my goals I'm going to buy a digital camcorder. I'm looking for something compact, preferably a pocket cam. Easy to use and good quality video. Suggestions are welcome!

So i've started shopping around a little on amazon, and intend to use FPPs to buy it. The 16,750 FPPs for 250 CAD on amazon is a pretty good value, but I might want to get one for more than 250. Does anyone know if you can use multiple gift certificates at once?

Here's a few I'm considering.

Flip UltraHD: CAD $129.99

Kodak PlaySport (Zx3): CAD $159.95

Kodak Zi8: CAD $299.00

Month-to-date Progress:

I was kind of scratching my head earlier and couldn't figure out how far along I was towards getting my new tech toy. Rather than wonder I decided that a well timed mid-month update would settle the matter.

Originally posted by datsmahname
October Goals
[4k] Play 13k hands
[3k] 10k hands at 1/2 (20K/50k for 2011 Milestone)
[x] Calculate the risk of ruin for moving up to 2/4, Evaluate options.
[x] 2+ Gold Articles
[x] 4+ Session Reviews
[x] 2+ Coaching Sessions
[3] 9+ HU SNGs (play 3 per HU session)
[~200] 500+ PokerStrategy Points, Gold Status
[x] Find suitable Rewards for completing these tasks.

In every area I'm doing great except one: volume. I'm only filling 80% of my hand volume "quota". Its roughly the same story with PS points and HU SNGs(~80% and 66% respectively).

Now, I'm sure I could come up with some kind of excuses about why this is the case: sleeping during peak hours, playing 1-3 tables max... but this theme has recurred for such a long time (and increasingly so) that I'm forced to consider a much more general explanation.

Fear of failure. I think that a part of my tendency to study like a mad man but play so infrequently is that I'm afraid of not playing really well, but I don't think this considers the big picture.

Naturally, a quick google search returns your 7 step guide to overcoming the fear of failure. Its actually a good read.

The cost of doing nothing:
First, my risk aversion towards game conditions is almost certainly costing me money because of the number of profitable opportunities that I am missing. Sure, I seat select and game select well (bum hunt)... I only play when I'm awake and comfortable, when I'm confident and in the right mind... but my "meta-nit" style actually costs me money.

So while my image at the tables is certainly LAG (or almost spewy) my approach to the game away from the tables is REALLY nitty. My opponents gain from my tendency to avoid marginal playing conditions.

How can I overcome this?

Do the research:
It seems the best thing to do is to educate myself. What are the possible outcomes associated with playing in tougher games? What are the probabilities associated with each outcome? What are the risks, and conversely what are the gains?

Playing against tougher opponents at my current stakes may mean playing in games where I do not have an edge. How can I evaluate my edge in that game under more marginal situations? This seems like a tough question to answer from my perspective. Simply put, I need more information on my opponents. This brings me back to a goal from last month that I did not achieve, once again a clearly important goal.

Originally posted by datsmahname
September Goals
[ ] Get Stats (invest in some 1/2 hands)

Evaluate the worst case scenario
Intuitively it seems like the worst case scenario is that my winrate decreases. This implies that the swings associated with playing will tend to involve more running losses (or downswongs). I would be statistically more likely to endure a +300BB downswing... but is that so bad?

Even with a 0.5 BB/100 winrate (very conservative estimation) I'd lose 500BB or 1K in less than 5% of all cases (a 2 outer). This is the worst case scenario: a more than 95% favorite to maintain a healthy bankroll even after a BIG downswing and a significantly smaller winrate. Not to shabby.

Losing $1K or $1.2K seems pretty bad, but thats why I've developed a nice big roll. Even after such a brutal run I would still have a good BR for my current stakes. My conservative Bank Roll Management is designed specifically to let me play in a wide range of game conditions.

What are the benefits of failing?
Well, playing in tougher games will certainly tend to improve my game. It will give me the much desired experience that I want before considering another move to higher stakes. I will also be far more likely to reach my hand volume goals. While 10K hands of 1/2 is somewhat arbitrary, those arbitrary markers are nevertheless rewarding to achieve.

Plan for the worst:
A number of good articles have been written on dealing with tough runs. I have a well developed plan for these swings and I've posted it once in this blog already. My BRM is part of this plan as well. Having a healthy roll after a brutal run. [x] planned.

Take Action
This relates back to all of my hard work & study. I meet almost weekly with intelligent regs that play at my stakes. I review hands regularly, participate in coaching sessions, read articles... and I absolutely love this aspect of poker. The intellectual challenge of studying poker, understanding my opponents thought process, my image... these challenges are really interesting.

Burn the Boats
How do I leave myself stranded with no other option but to proceed as planned?

A prop bet would help here. Some commitment to other people would help... I've tried this before but my odds were 1:1 and for that reason I think I was never going to get action.

This is something for me to work on next.

Cool, nice stuff.

Originally posted by luizsilveira
Cool, nice stuff.

thanks luizsilveira

he didnt get it...

$1/$2 Fixed-Limit Hold'em (5 handed)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q:s, Q:d.
MP3 raises, CO folds, BU calls, SB calls(All-In), Hero calls

An interesting preflop scenario here.

EP is a TAG & kinda LAG. BTN is a fish. 43/20 and honest aggression postflop. SB is a fish, calls all in pre.

EP's range will tend to c-bet very often postflop with good to marginal SD value hands on basically every flop texture. If i 3-bet preflop he'll play quite well against my hand but plays much less well against my call pre/x-raise flop line.

I'm interested to get some feedback on this & plan to post it in the hand evaluation thread later, but I feel like theres some good reasons for slow-playing in this spot.

Post-Black Friday represents difficult changes for many players. I think FTP's collapse in particular has left players with some big problems, not the least of which is a problem in trusting online poker sites. Individuals wouldn't be remiss for feeling displaced or even outright pissed off.

However, when Howard Lederer and others finally give us an opportunity, we absolutely MUST try to learn from mistakes that Full Tilt Poker made. Some of the mistakes are obvious, but others will not be and I really hope that we can work to understand what happened before we condemn Full Tilt's directors.

Its also important to stop and realize that FTP isn't an isolated incident. Their collapse falls in step with a pattern of mistakes that we have observed in other poker rooms like UB, AP, and Microgaming. This pattern of collapse is a huge leak for the poker community, and its in our interest to plug it. After all, we risk losing our earnings, operating capital, AND future profits when a site unexpectedly shuts down.

I decided to post about this after coming across an old podcast from 2+2's archives. This story picks up at about 1:30:00. News that week was about Microgaming Poker which closed shop the month before, leaving players short over 5 million. In retrospect, this is a cautionary tale which really foreshadowed a situation like the one we see now with FTP. You can read all about it in this thread.

July 2nd, 2005. I am returning a pair of new shorts. They'd been torn up the back "in the washer," I lied. The truth was that things had changed, but I wouldn't have it. A girl I'd been dating for months came with me. I knew that I'd fallen for her, but I had started to realize that I didn't know her at all.

Earlier that week I was visiting home. I wanted to show her where I grew up, just 20 minutes down the road; to walk the old foot paths, dip our feet in the cold quarry water. We took a familiar shortcut, but the path was blocked by a low fence. As I jumped over, the foot patter and low growl of approaching dogs stole my attention. I quickly leapt back and snagged my new shorts, tearing them in the process. We walked home.