Long story: "Why do I feel like I'm losing more than I should"?
A little about myself, 4yrs+ playing online. Started playing freerolls, and turned 3.15$ into 2k playing NL5. Moved up with BR. Read all materials I can find and re-read them. All was fine, until I reached NL50, my WR wasn't breaking even, other then rakeback I was going backwards.
This is when I decided to write my hands down that get it all in pre and see if I'm putting my money in behind too often. No, my reads were good enough to know when tofold KK pre flop. Why was I breaking even, or worse? I'm putting my money in good most of the time pre flop. AA is being outdrawn 23% overall, after 397 showdowns. KK is holding up well, KK vs A2-Aq, 190 showdowns, losing 33%, everything fine there. Random hands, not including an A or K or hands containing pairs, outdraw AA 17%, again, all is fine. If I'm putting my money in the best pre flop, must be post flop play.
In my Quest to find out what was happening and reviewing hands hrs a day. I noticed variance is a bitch. AA was being kicked by KK 14 out of the last 44, win the next 40 out of the next 44, always evened out in the long run. AA KK will play themselves. Flopping a set should do the same. But, here are what I've run into for the last 2yrs.
Set vs overpair, 96x, outdrawn 25x, being 91% fave, losing 25 of those is mind boggling, but not big sample. I know. This is how I've been running.
not only are overpairs outdrawing my sets to often, but fl and oesd are also.
90 times I shoved my set to be up vs TP+Fl draw, or just A hi with draw, regardless, I lost 47 out of 90 at cash tables and so far lost 6 out of 9 to flush draws at SnGs and lost 4 out of 11 OESDs. So 10 out of 20. In fact set got outdrawn by gutter 5 out 8 at the SnGs. I know the math will even out. BUT WHEN????
Well, after 2 M hands played in cash games, I only have 1.2 M tracked, lost a lot due pc crashes. But, in those 1.2M, I noticed sets were my biggest losing hand, win small, lose big type thing but still money makers. Set over sets, 69x, was losing end of that 43x. Str8 flush draws, hit 12 out 49. Hit 4 times and still lost. Let's not shove with 47-56% EV, when hitting 24%.
Cash games it was missed draws and sets that I noticed playing "too hard"?
Those will even out eventually but not looking promising yet!
SnGs, it's just stupid, 25c SnGs all was going well, just like my venture at cash tables. Once I lost my 1st 1K at cash, I withdrew my money and went back to NL5$, Math was normal and had a WR of 4bbs/100. BR is enuff to play NL10. HA!!! AA cracked by KK 44%, sets not holding up again. Math is off for some reason. I decided to go back to SnGs due to the nittyness of non american players LOL. My luck has followed me. It took me 341 tournies to boost my BR from 50$ to 100$. I can now play 1$ SnGs. With an ROI of 51 at the 25c tables and playing a lot of same type players, you'd think You can achieve a 20 ROI at least, mine fluctuates from 15 to1 back to 15 like a yo-yo. It took me 540 SnGs to earn same as I did at 25c SnGs in less games.
Again WHY. Why am I losing more at one level then the other, better players, sure some hands, but the majority are rec players or grinders that only play their hands not their opponents. In 483 tournies played at the 1$, 208 times I was knocked out holding the better hand. Not saying I never get lucky, we all do. If I'm ahead 42% of the time, am I shoving too weak? Doubt it. I think I'm a bit tight when shoving his last 10bbs. Ak losing to junk 60% of the time so far, small sample. Junk is beating QQ 47%. Blah blah!!!
Being knockedout 57 times when 71%+fave out of the 208 excessive? Normal?
Being sent packing 54 times out of those same 208 normal or what about when I'm 50-60% EV losing 95 too much or....
2 many bad beat stories out there and everybody knows when you grind, get used to the bad beats, but when you see players cry caling K7s from the BB from an EP shove for 4 extra BBs and have an ROI of 60 and mine is only 15, I wonder how do they have such a good ROI after 20K tounies and this is a guy who I knocked out 5 out 6 times so far, all with the better hand. If he can beat the bad players, why can't I?
I've said this for years now "I just want 1/8ths of the beginner's luck!"
) can teach u more than 10 hours of private coaching.
if i lost all my moniez, i would get staking for any stakes.
