[Closed] AJK6 SS on BU, facing c/r shove on T

On my count we have 12 outs against a set, and 16 against two-pair hands.
Some of our outs are almost guaranteed dirty.
The second flushdraw MAY be good for us, but may also not, as he didn't rep a clubdraw, only calling, but he shoves the diamond draw.
There are SO many cards we don't want to see, 11 diamonds, 9s, Ts, 5s and to some extent aces, if we have him on a set. There's just too little good and too much bad that can come for us.

And if he has a hand like 9TJQ, we really don't look very good, because we only split the pot if a queen peels.
Crushed against any set if the Ace rolls off.
King or Jack won't be good either against a rundown..

And as you said, he's rather passive pre, but what about his postflop play? How many hands do we have? Does he have a habit of check/raising, is it only nuts or sometimes strong draws?

I'd probably walk away from this one, if I had the time and opportunity to analyse it during the hand, which is not quite as likely as reading it here.

Regards,
Richard

PS. Everything I say is as a fish and player, don't take it as a real evaluation, just my opinion and wait for Graham to pop round.

Good preflop raise.

Good flop bet with nut flush draw and gutshot straight draw.

Turn is the best card in the deck for us (to rep a strong hand) since we raised preflop. We now have top pair top kicker to go with our draw. I would be betting full pot here and happily stacking off to a check raise.

Nobody is ever turning up with a set here, they can't afford to play a set such a way. It's most likely against 2 pair, which we're pretty reasonable against since we likely win with a KQJ or club, something around 15 outs.

Meaning soon as we bet the turn, which we absolutely should since a lot of better hands fold (like T9 or A5) and anyone with a diamond draw/straight draw on the turn we likely are beating (with our AK) we absolutely can't check this behind and we definitely can't fold to a checkraise given it's a $3.50 call to win a $12 and we have a third of the deck typically to win.

So you wouldn't be the least worried about agression on the diamond draw hitting, Ribbo? I mean the chances of his flush counter our flush perfectly, and I wouldn't really be sure we don't split on a straight(Which is of course still worth stacking off with, but a flush may cost us outs)

Actually he had K :club:4 :club:Q :diamond:8 :diamond:, and at first his line made sense to me, but then after some simulations I think it is just -EV. Cause he has at best 40% against Axxx and he has to have some fold equity but after we fire twice, can he have some at all with this SPR? Only if I am some barreling monkey with pure air.

@Ribbo: What about if he c/c this turn and check blank river, what is our line check back or fire again to make some river two pairs to fold?

Villain should have donked the turn. There is no way you're folding to a checkraise given the line you took (which shows you are strong).