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Liar Dice - Diary of a Bean Counter!

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Gavron23
Joined: 26.05.2010

Originally posted by Tim64
@dydukas; no - just to help with volume + variety
@MrMardyBum; ty, sir :)
@<3, dunno; maybe thought I was raising a J for value vs A high or s/thing crazy...
@Gavron23; Maybe vs a known opponent (so we can stab/barrel air too). But imo when unknown villain calls stab on this flop it's like he's getting ready to make a move. Cos what can he have, other than 89 or s/thing? KQ will raise pre. So this looks like bluff float already and if we barrel turn we make it more likely in his eyes that we have something (and therefore less likely he will get funky).

Hm, I guess we need to judge if he is the stationy type of guy, or the type that would float widely and try to take i on the turn on a dry board.
I guess we can make value from the first type villain from weak Jx, random gutshots, and some sort of turned flush draws.But you are correct that by checking turn we deceive him into trying all that funky stuff like bet/push river with K high :), and we could also get value from Jx on most rivers as well IP if he checks again.


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Tim64
Joined: 03.11.2008

After a time of things being better, my shoulder, neck and chest muscles have started giving me quite a bit of trouble again. Unfortunately my poor masseur's father died recently and she has been depressed about it and not working.

Mrs Tim64 cajoled me into trying to organise a replacement today and I finally pulled my finger out and got on the phone. I found an osteopathy place just up the road and I have session booked in for next Thursday. Really hoping I can make some progress...

Have been playing a ton of heads up sit and go's recently and running very well. EV roi sucks, however, so I'm not sure whether its variance (small sample) or that I need to adjust more. On the plus side it makes it much easier to get my required volume in, although that's only going to work if the games are profitable enough in the long run.

I'm finally grinding my $3K r/bk bonus which I bought with the points I've earned since July. It's a nice boost to my bankroll. If FTP does come back in the New Year, I should be reasonably comfortable and 'rolled for a sustainable shot at the 109s.


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MrMardyBum
Joined: 14.03.2009

Good luck mate, hope you feel better after the visit.

As for EV ROI... Who cares my friend, think of all the times you've run under EV - Make the best of it and enjoy imo. :)

Also, can't wait for FTP to announce they are re-opening ... Are we mad?


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Originally posted by Tim64
...

Have been playing a ton of heads up sit and go's recently and running very well. EV roi sucks, however, so I'm not sure whether its variance (small sample) or that I need to adjust more. On the plus side it makes it much easier to get my required volume in, although that's only going to work if the games are profitable enough in the long run.

...

Are you playing HU to improve your skills for 6max or do you want to develop it as a reasonable side game? I've been thinking about playing some HU, but I don't think I will. Btw, why is it easier to get in your volume, I mean you probably can't multitable them as much as 6max so I don't get this statement :f_biggrin:


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Tim64
Joined: 03.11.2008

Originally posted by Demonic226

Originally posted by Tim64
...

Have been playing a ton of heads up sit and go's recently and running very well. EV roi sucks, however, so I'm not sure whether its variance (small sample) or that I need to adjust more. On the plus side it makes it much easier to get my required volume in, although that's only going to work if the games are profitable enough in the long run.

...

Are you playing HU to improve your skills for 6max or do you want to develop it as a reasonable side game? I've been thinking about playing some HU, but I don't think I will. Btw, why is it easier to get in your volume, I mean you probably can't multitable them as much as 6max so I don't get this statement :f_biggrin:

All to do with average duration. I play 2 games side by side. Agerage lasts 9.5 mins, so 1 hour = 12 games. Now, this isn't more than i get by multitabling 6mx or FR, 9 tabs, but in the morning you cant do this anyway b/c not enough games. So HU in the am and 6mx/FR pm.

Also, yes for sure it's about diversification in general and increasing 1st places once ITM. Also good practice for tilt management. Nothing more tilting than losing 4 in a row to a fishmonster!


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Tim64
Joined: 03.11.2008

Ho hum... month is nearly over. Been a bit lackluster in terms of EV performance, though running good has kept profits solid. Need another 50~ish games... Feeling that weird state of mind where you are close to booking a decent winning month and you don't want to keep playing in case you go and ruin it all with a stupid 20 BI downer or something dumb like that.

Bad mindset. Still... after all this time.

Watched Moshman's HU Sng vid today which really helped. Even the basic HUD stats was something I had given no thought to... :facepalm:

Also did some calcs for 4bet shoves vs aggro 3bettors. Seems like, for someone 3betting 25% (but only calling 7.5%), you can profitably 4b jam 33 for 50bb deep. Hope I did that right... :)


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Originally posted by Tim64
Also did some calcs for 4bet shoves vs aggro 3bettors. Seems like, for someone 3betting 25% (but only calling 7.5%), you can profitably 4b jam 33 for 50bb deep. Hope I did that right... :)

sounds ok. although sizings might be off. if you MR and they make it 5bbs then u jam 50. bit of an overshove. usually u can still 4b to 11-13bbs and have a 4b/f range. jamming 40-45bigs sounds better in that spot. but calcs prob still correct, due to value of small pairs in overshove spots and their horrible value as 4b bluffing hands.


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Tim64
Joined: 03.11.2008

Originally posted by lessthanthreee

Originally posted by Tim64
Also did some calcs for 4bet shoves vs aggro 3bettors. Seems like, for someone 3betting 25% (but only calling 7.5%), you can profitably 4b jam 33 for 50bb deep. Hope I did that right... :)

sounds ok. although sizings might be off. if you MR and they make it 5bbs then u jam 50. bit of an overshove. usually u can still 4b to 11-13bbs and have a 4b/f range. jamming 40-45bigs sounds better in that spot. but calcs prob still correct, due to value of small pairs in overshove spots and their horrible value as 4b bluffing hands.

b/c no blockers, right?


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yeh and overbet 4betting AI as a semi-bluff sounds fine with small pairs. yes id rather 4b/f a blocker


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Tim64
Joined: 03.11.2008

I guess it shows how ungrateful people can be when they are annoyed at a $3.5K month. To my credit, it's not that I wish I had made more money but rather that I wish my red line had been a little more solid. I've been so used to it going straight up, that when it flat-lines for more than a couple of hundred games I get grumpy. You know this about me already, so don't act surprised!

As a testament to the mindset issue I'm talking about, if you look at last month's graph: Liar Dice – Massaging My Ego you'll see the end result was pretty similar, but there the breakeven stretch was in the first half of the month rather than in the second half, which meant that I ended on an upswing and felt better despite almost identical results. :facepalm:

Anyway here are the stats:

STT Tournaments: 800
Average buyin: $34.94
ROI 10.1%
EV Roi 5.4%
SnG Profit: $2768.40
EV Profit: $1491.83
Estimated points-based rake back: $723.60
World Domination: $16.00 + points equivalent $39.75 = $55.75

Total Profit: $3547.75
Total EV profit (estimated): $2270.35
Hours played: 106.6
$/Hr: 33.28
EV $/Hr: $21.29

Of course overall I'm delighted at a third consecutive $3k+ month. Volume was so-so (100 games less than last month) but it's good that this 11% decrease coincided with an 18% decrease in total hours played. In short, I have been a little more efficient in the games/hour department, mainly as a result of playing HU games in the mornings when the FR/6 Max are filling so slowly that a set of 10 games is taking closer to 2 hours than 1 hour. Despite encountering a boat load of monkey fish at HU, I am barely breakeven after 250-odd games, so it's not clear whether the efficiency will end up being a false economy...

December will be another low-volume poker month. Mrs Tim64 is swanning off to see her new nephew in New York leaving me to look after Miss Tim64. Actually that's not strictly true, since I am enlisting the help of Mother-of-Tim64 with the childminding detail. And then it's Christmas and I am certainly going to make the most of being self-employed by ensuring I have a proper break. I will aim for another 800 games max and see how I get on.

I haven't quite decided whether I am properly shooting for the 109s in December. After a 10 game shot in November I stepped back down. Despite being up overall in those games, I lost around $800 in a 40 game spell (you can see the graph above plummets briefly around game 300). It was a somewhat unpleasant sensation. :rolleyes: And even though I still have $1800 worth of r/bk bonus to clear in Dec, which should give me an additional cushion, I remain nervous of running into a big $ downswing just before Christmas. So probably I will wait and see how the first half of the month goes...

Anyway I have earned myself a couple of days rest now, starting with lunch at a gastropub called The Royal Well


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Antonioull
Joined: 01.09.2010

Hey

Nice graph , ive read some parts of the blog , very nice
i use to play in FTP also , where do u play ?

(not sure if its party or stars)

Keep it up

A


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nibbana
Joined: 05.12.2009

Just seems so unjust, you make $2.7k playing SNG's and only $55 for World Domination. The groundwork for the latter must've been a ball ache. Seriously, nice month again Tim - keep it up.

Originally posted by Tim64
December will be another low-volume poker month. Mrs Tim64 is swanning off to see her new nephew in New York leaving me to look after Miss Tim64. Actually that's not strictly true, since I am enlisting the help of Mother-of-Tim64 with the childminding detail. And then it's Christmas and I am certainly going to make the most of being self-employed by ensuring I have a proper break. I will aim for another 800 games max and see how I get on.

Your wife is away, your kid minded and a proper break. That is Ballin' for Dads right there.


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akrammon
Joined: 17.05.2009

Very solid month Tim, screw the red line!! Coming from someone having the same problem constantly... :P :P

Very nice graph Tim, keep making insane profits :) and gl for them $100s!!


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noisecore
Joined: 13.04.2010

Someone in skype chat was playing against tim64Lund and the player playing on the account was donating stacks and stating that it was hacked. I hope this is not your account?


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akrammon
Joined: 17.05.2009

Originally posted by noisecore
Someone in skype chat was playing against tim64Lund and the player playing on the account was donating stacks and stating that it was hacked. I hope this is not your account?

as far as I remember, it is not his screenname.


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its not


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noisecore
Joined: 13.04.2010

Ok cool,

was just informing, you never know.


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Tim64
Joined: 03.11.2008

Originally posted by noisecore
Ok cool,

was just informing, you never know.

Np; thanks for the concern m8. Crappy BR in tact. Phew!


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Tim64
Joined: 03.11.2008

$55 6max SnG. Villain is a fish. Here, I made use of an important timing tell to make a correct call on the flop. What was the tell? Simple: his timing is terribad.

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $200(BB) Replayer
SB ($4,486)
BB ($3,020)
Hero ($1,982)
BTN ($2,512)

Dealt to Hero K♣ K♠

Hero raises to $415, fold, SB calls $315, fold

FLOP ($1,030) K♦ 8♦ K♥

SB bets $4,071 (AI), Hero calls $1,567 (AI)

TURN ($4,164) K♦ 8♦ K♥ Q♦

RIVER ($4,164) K♦ 8♦ K♥ Q♦ 3♣

Spoiler

Hero shows K♣ K♠ (Pre 70%, Flop 100.0%, Turn 100.0%)

SB shows A♠ 5♥ (Pre 30%, Flop 0.0%, Turn 0.0%)Hero wins

$4,164

_cool:


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ahaha awesome timing tell sir :)


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