Interesting hand which I have a few thoughts to share, probably over or prematurely adjusting again preflop but the spot gets interesting and tough on the flop mainly judge to villains hand range becoming difficult to specify.
** Hand History for Game 1111111111 ** (Poker Stars)
$25.00 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Monday, September 19, 06:48:27 ET 2011
Table Annagerman (Real Money)
Seat 3 is the button
Seat 1: Hero ( $36.16 USD ) -
Seat 2: Player2 ( $28.12 USD ) - VPIP: 28, PFR: 25, 3B: 17, AF: 1.3, Hands: 53
Seat 3: Player3 ( $29.43 USD ) - VPIP: 9, PFR: 4, 3B: 9, AF: Infinity, Hands: 23
Seat 4: Player4 ( $25.00 USD ) - VPIP: 14, PFR: 11, 3B: 3, AF: 1.3, Hands: 93
Seat 6: Player6 ( $30.42 USD ) - VPIP: 17, PFR: 17, 3B: 0, AF: Infinity, Hands: 23
Player4 posts small blind [$0.10 USD].
Player6 posts big blind [$0.25 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ Ac 6c ]
Hero raises [$0.75 USD]
Player2 raises [$2.20 USD]
Player3 folds
Player4 folds
Player6 folds
Hero raises [$5.25 USD]
Player2 calls [$3.80 USD]
** Dealing Flop ** [ 5c, 8d, As ] (Pot= $12.35)
Hero bets [$6.00 USD]
Player2 calls [$6.00 USD]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 3c ] (Pot= $24.35)
Hero bets [$24.16 USD]
Player2 calls [$16.12 USD]
Villain has 3bet us twice previous to this and we have folded within the last few hands. (Note 3bet:17%). Decide to take this spot and 4bet as bluff. Is the 4bet sizing okay.
When he calls Im not too sure of his range, I put him on JJ-TT and maybe 99 that didn't want to shove but called fairly loosely to set mine. Also thinking vaguely about AK/AQs here but really don't know if he plays these this way.
Vs this range on the flop we are way behind vs. 10combos and way ahead vs. 12-18combos.
The problem is we're out of position, if we bet, we can't expect a worse hand to call or better hand to fold. However, when checking a dilemma arises around an unknown quantity which is his bluffing frequency. For case lets assume he never turns his pocket pairs into a bluff here. Therefore if we check we can't check/call as only better hands are betting.
Therefore check/fold flop?
Not so. Given the above assumption and range analysis a bet is profitable to take down the money in the pot. If we give him 12 (JJ, TT) combos of worse hands which are folding and 10 combos of better hands are calling a half pot size bet stands to make a profit of roughly $3.82 in a vacuum. Possibly more if we take out some combos of AK out of his range assume he can shove them preflop sometimes
Therefore we bet to capitalize on the dead money.
Okay, while writing about this hand I have thought about some different "Think outside the box" lines which require us to change our assumptions of villain. Assume villain can turn his pocket pairs into a bluff which is reasonable to collect the dead money with a similar though process to above. Hero considers a check/raise to turn his hand into a bluff?
Lets assume villain bets $8 with his entire range when checked to, and hero raises to $20. He definitely folds JJ-TT (12 combos), assume he shoves with AQ/AK (10 combos), when he folds we win $20.35, when he shoves we lose $20 :
((12/22)*$20.35) - ((10/22)*$20)= $11.09 - $9.08 = +$2.01
Okay so its theoretically +ev but not optimal compared to betting out. But put yourself in villains shoes, how do you respond to a check/raise on this board with AQ or even AK? We represent AA pretty strongly. If we start to give credit for villain to fold AQ or sometimes even AK added to the fact that some of the time AK will ship it pre-flop we end up folding out large proportions of his range and this could become the optimal line.
As played and given the above initial assumptions (villain never calls flop with worst hand) I hate my turn play. I guess the turn should just be a check/fold despite picking up a FD.
Really want to hear some thoughts or viewers!
Regards,
Check.
