kq in bb sqz spot in SM

Any kind of reads on CO? Really got to try to get a feel for his range that he is flatting with you before you can decide to go broke or not on flop.

I realllly really want to just ch/fold this flop since I don't think he's ever folding and I also think you are in quite horrible shape.

no specific reads on CO, on the way he played his hand he kinda tank call when i sqz so most likely he has 22-QQ and some kind of AQs/AKs/AJs idk that dont want fold or to go broke pre (imo he very rarely has strong traping hand so his range is medium strong hand)

what u think about pre?

my thoughts for flop
- we do have 4 outs to nuts (4 jacks)
- villain has like 18k behind and pot is 16k

so do we bet/call, shove, ch/shove, ch/fold

if we give him smth like this range we got to bet/call (or shove) imo QQ-22, KdKh, KdKs, KdKc, AdKd, AhKh (i put some combos of KK and AK cos is not like he will aways trap with monsters aa/kk)

Board: 9♠7♥T♦
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    33.55%  32.86%   0.69% { KsQd }
MP3    66.45%  65.76%   0.69% { QQ-22, KdKh, KdKs, KdKc, AdKd, AhKh }

cos he can hero fold smth like JJ/QQ + fold 22-66/AK part of his range and vs that part he is not folding we have like 24% eq so if we bet we got to call off

Board: 9♠7♥T♦
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    24.74%  24.09%   0.64% { KsQd }
MP3    75.26%  74.62%   0.64% { QQ-77, KdKh, KdKs, KdKc }

I think your 2nd equilator result and range is more likely the one I assign (don't forget AA).

I mean noway does he have AK in his range after pre action, and its pretty unlikely he flats your 3bet with some worse unpaired hand than maybe AQs (we got no reads but the amount of FE you get in SM I am tempted to say this is quite a reasonable assumption)

So I guess you got some FE vs AQs but imo rest of his range is calling and we are getting like what 2:1 on our money about if we shove (and assume he never folds) so this is a -EV play to shove the flop and so we should ch/fold.

I mean yeah I agree if you could give him the first range you can bet/call, shove or w/e - bet/call will increase your FE so is best. But honestly I don't see him having this range, and I think near all of time he got the 2nd range.

Note that even if he had 1st range some % of time and 2nd range some % of time if we are not right about it we are likely going to make -EV play, and arguably its not even that +EV. Like overall we stand to gain a little, but lose a lot if we are wrong, so I just prefer to ch/fold so we don't own ourselves.

why u think that {QQ-22, KdKh, KdKs, KdKc, AdKd, AhKh} for flating pre is unlikly i mean22-88 have same value for fish

and imo #2 range is range that he will continue on that flop when we cbet, so imo he will fold like 30%-40% of his range that he flat pre on that flop

That is range I am giving to unknown - why are we now saying CO is a fish

Originally posted by amplifyd
That is range I am giving to unknown - why are we now saying CO is a fish

hmm, one tabling and calling with those stack size sqz, with only pot bet left behind

I'd CBet ~7k and fold to resistance. If we improve on the turn I'd stack off, but otherwise I'm done with the hand.
I know there will be arguments about pot odds and the likes, but there's not much point in chasing rainbows (if we're behind it's likely only the J would save us) and while we do end up losing 1/3rd of our stack, I'd rather have villain think I'm a fish for folding to those odds, then potentially looking like a hero drawing very weak equity.

Originally posted by Atoks
I'd CBet ~7k and fold to resistance. If we improve on the turn I'd stack off, but otherwise I'm done with the hand.
I know there will be arguments about pot odds and the likes, but there's not much point in chasing rainbows (if we're behind it's likely only the J would save us) and while we do end up losing 1/3rd of our stack, I'd rather have villain think I'm a fish for folding to those odds, then potentially looking like a hero drawing very weak equity.

this line is very very bad villain might shove 88, JJ,QQ maybe ATs, if thats in his range, also smth like 66,98s,78s and its not like we r drawing to 4 outs only
every time when we cbet and villain shoves

so cbeting and folding is atrocious in this spot with those efective stack sizes

the only good plays here and all have good arguments and imo prety much close, depending on reads/table dynamic are
- shove
- check/fold
- cbet like 70% pot and call off if he shoves

I think the ranges given to villain are misleading. I'm not entirely sure which hands to attribute to villain in this spot, but I am certain the range villain uses here is not wide and doesn't containt as specific a range as TheRebuz applied. IMO on the flop we will mostly be way behind once the chips go in. I do however also expect villain to fold a few times, because with unpredictable ranges come unpredictable lines. I'd love to see what the professional judges think.

Hi all,

I'm +1 for c/f this flop because it hits his pf call range too hard.

I'm -1 for squeezing preflop, esp to this size. I like it to maybe 5k (full range) but I think calling preflop is slightly better.

Originally posted by chenny8888
I think calling preflop is slightly better.

why?

Hand has some value, we keep dominated hands in, bad stacksizes to squeeze/fold, CO's trapping some, easy hand to play postflop multiway with these stacks.