ok, just maybe... you had a big up-swing, cashed-out ... a few hands latter, suprise! a down-swing.
in my logic at least you don't cash-out when on a downer but on an up-swing: your (over) confident that you can beat that limit + you got some extra cash. downswings are always a bad suprise, but at least their predictable, always after an up-swing.
Or often, the downswing is made greater by our own mistake that may derivate from the pressure of few consecutive bad sessions.
Originally posted by EasyOnEAS
Originally posted by buzzinowt
Downswings have almost a 100% chance to occur if you play for any period.We are not talking about a normal dowswing here. We are talking about starting to lose right after cashing out, multiple times. It is possible, but chanse of its happening is very low.
Yes that is standard downswing (assuming you are a winning player). Unless you were on an upswing as a losing player and now face reality.
Originally posted by buzzinowtSites are not rigged. It has been proven for multiple sites. Anyone with a million hands can find that they are within normal deviation of ev.
Rigging doesnt always mean that you go beyond normal devation of ev... Why would it?
EV is expected value eg if I have 90% equity I will win 90% of the time. You are saying I will win less than 90% of the time if I cash out which would be out of the standard deviation for EV over a large sample. Don't you think every winning player would notice if they ran hugely below ev for over a million hands? (Don't answer)
cash out to activate doomswitch, deposit again to activate boomswitch = play variance free poker
from my past experience, I do feel the "cashout punishment" and even if I want not to believe it I cant ignore my results. ♦
hi guys,
deVall3y - naughty naughty results oriented! ![]()
In my opinion, I think buzzinowt [actually others have a well, but he was succinct] nailed it. The problem is people don't want to hear it a lot of the time. Being in denial they would rather it was someone else's fault, making it an 'alright it isn't my fault so I can feel justified and victimized' type of scenario. This, as most will know, is a common failing in people who are, for whatever reason, not able to face 'up to the facts' as it were.
Only my opinion of course, but something to consider when looking for ouside influences to blame, whether true or not.
I can't be certain, but I think psuchologist call it a 'Poor me' syndrome? i am willing to be educated of course.
Regards,
Mal.
Originally posted by clawindsouza
well firstly you played the 82 hand badly...secondly..i think ppls mindset changes according to their cashier...so when they withdraw, they start playing differently. Hence the downswing.
Cause this happens to most beginners/ppl who havent withdrawn too many times.
I think once ppl stop thinking about the balance/money etc, these things will stop happening..
easier said than done though..
exactly, i withdrew half my bankroll few days ago too, but i didnt let it affect my mindset cuz my bankroll is still extremely big compared to what I buy in for in tournaments. In other words, it's all in YOUR heads.
can definitely attest to the cashout = downswing phenomenon, everytime I cashout I feel the urge to buy new gadgets, spend on the girlfriend, have nice meals etc. definitely hurts my roll.
Last time I cashed out I went on a heater and had back to back best months ever.
Spoiler
(truth)
You guys need to tip daniel 2 cents. It enbles the boom switch.
Spoiler
(non truth)
Originally posted by elhh82
can definitely attest to the cashout = downswing phenomenon, everytime I cashout I feel the urge to buy new gadgets, spend on the girlfriend, have nice meals etc. definitely hurts my roll.
+1!
Also I think we should have a seperate section where people can post their 'post cashout graphs' after x amount of hands/tournaments
I think it's more about the psychological mindframe you switch to AFTER you cashed out. Looking at the tiny bankroll affects your game, believe it or not.
didnt you know you have to rake 4 times the amount of a cashout before you get a winning hand, i thought it was common knowledge
Cash out what you need + a bit more. Redeposit the 'bit more' back and you've got what you need.
