11r 70kG AQ

Snapping like a crocodile for me

I would prefer a fold. Against a wide 3Bet range u are flipping at best and against a tight one ur always quite far behind. I believe there simply aren't enough chips up for grabs to take even the coinflip gamble. However if u had reads that BB does in fact 3Bet lightly then I would prefer to call.

Well we are calling 4150 to win 6000 (I am just gnna assume MP always folds even tho its not correct but he barely ever overcalls) so its like 1.44:1 so we need what 41% eq?

Some ranges :

       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    40.54%  32.72%   7.83% { AQo }
MP3    59.46%  51.63%   7.83% { 99+, AJs+, KJs+, AQo+ }

This is imo the most default 'value range' so maybe it is not so great a call and we could make this nitty fold but tbh with this many chips I don't even mind this breakeven call simply because people's ranges are often a lot wider and i mean if we can just add some more semibluffing stuff into his range it becomes profitable.

Once LP has called he's squeezing more PPs and also AJo always as well as suited aces and suited connectors as bluffs. I'm assuming this because villain doesn't have the note "super nit" on him. He may actually be a nit but that's just our bad luck.

this is really depending on their shoving size. against the amplyfied range its close.
because i hate breakeven calls in those fields at this stage.
but this range seems really tight i would def. add a10s and 88 too.

you could also timebank, search for villain.. if his a player thats on lowstakes tournaments and doesn't play a lot of them its probably a tighter range.
and against a really solid regular its also more likely to be a tighter range since he doesn't know anything about us and we're raising from ep

Originally posted by Tiltberger
this is really depending on their shoving size. against the amplyfied range its close.
because i hate breakeven calls in those fields at this stage.
but this range seems really tight i would def. add a10s and 88 too.

you could also timebank, search for villain.. if his a player thats on lowstakes tournaments and doesn't play a lot of them its probably a tighter range.
and against a really solid regular its also more likely to be a tighter range since he doesn't know anything about us and we're raising from ep

thinking about it i tend to agree that fold should be best here given HERO stack

reasoning is that if we fold we r just making smalish -EV play/mistake vs villain range and when we call bets that we should hope is flip and in bets is just a break even play vs villains range and is only smalish +EV play and I dont think that we should risk 1/3 stack in this spot vs avg field skills and imo vs tougher field this should be call

it's really quite -EV though, tournament life is important but not enough to miss so much cEV