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AJs difficult spot bubble

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Party Poker No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t300.00/t600.00 Blinds - 4 players - View hand 1593558
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

BTN: t290.00 0.48 BBs - VPIP: 36, PFR: 1, 3B: 0, AF: 3.0, Hands: 73
SB: t10510.00 17.52 BBs - VPIP: 35, PFR: 21, 3B: 9, AF: 0.7, Hands: 62
BB: t7390.00 12.32 BBs - VPIP: 26, PFR: 13, 3B: 14, AF: 0.8, Hands: 115
Hero (CO): t1810.00 3.02 BBs - VPIP: 17, PFR: 13, 3B: 4, AF: 3.3, Hands: 58065

Pre Flop: (t900) Hero is CO with J :club: A :club:
1 fold,

Unknown BTN: Filtered Stats: 28 hands -inf-15-0
Unknown BB: Filtered Stats: 40 hands- inf-29-20
Unknown SB: Filtered Stats: 28 hands- 0.70-32-20 steal 24% (14% sb)

NASH

Nash overcalling range for the blinds are too tight. Also, SB isn't probably shoving ATC vs BB. SB is going to limp pre/small ball post here if me and BTN folds around.

BTN will either overcall sth like 25% ? or either overcall super tight hoping I'll bust out via the blinds.

BB isn't most likely a thinking player with loose stats. I think he's gonna call me quite wide (25%+?) regardless of my image. My FE isn't that great either with 3bbs.

If I fold BB will be in the next hand.

My wiz calculation results in a 88+ AJ+. I think I would shove here TT/JJ+. what's ur opinion?


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6 replies

I would just fold here, unless I have a good pair, doubling up doesn't take us any closer to the money and we lose everything so often.

BU looks spewy with those stats, so fold and hope he gets it in, we're still way ahead of him for now.

I think AJs should be a clear enough fold here. Not sure If I can give up hands like AK/88/99 tho, we basicaly just don't want to gamble here until BU busts or catches up.


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Puscherbilbo
Joined: 17.06.2009
BlackMember

- Most important question is: Is BU to call or not.
If he calls often this push is fairly easy actually.
But my personal assumption would be that he is not going to.

- The BvsB-ranges won´t effect the outcome too much here. They are so deep that smallball may even be better for you since they may go crazy more often postflop then preflop.

- There is a decent chance SB/BB call pretty loose if you shove since you are so damn short as well. They might not understand just how tight you are.

- There is a real possibility of getting walked by SB/BB in the next hand.

All this points to a fold.

A limp or minr may be a possibility here since you would be more flexible and you should not expect SB/BB to exploit your play preflop. I would be more worried about light calls postflop. I´d prefer the limp bc we still can fold and keep more FE for postflop. But keep in mind that this play is very high variance and it is basically impossible to prove if it is +EV or not.


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kurrkabin
Joined: 12.10.2010
Oldschool Grinder

Salut all. Interesting spot.

All of our opponents seem loose and recreational and yet folding with our hand is not a good opition here imo. Fish villains usually call these spots tighter than regs, they don't understand pot odds, stack sizes etc, so I even assume we do have some FE. Anyway, I won't push either. This hand depends mostly on how often does the BTN get the chips in. As bad he seems to be, I strongly believe it will be much more often than what a reg will do.

I like min raising here. Well, not really a min raise, more like making it 1700 or so. It gives us room to maneuver. So, my line will be to min/raise-fold if the btn folds, sb pushes and bb calls. Min/raise-call if the BTN pushes and one of the blinds comes along. Min/raise-call if the btn folds and one the bigstacks pushes over us. And min/raise-fold if all the players get the chips in. If we min raise, btn folds and the 2 big stacks collude by just calling our min raise...well.. _biggrin:

I will leave it open.


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chenny8888
Joined: 03.10.2007
Elite Grinder

Hi all,

Looks like a fold, minraising is an option with reads that BU is going to get it in here. But pushing is really bad here!


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Puscherbilbo
Joined: 17.06.2009
BlackMember

What about a limp instead of a minr?
Basically we want to know what BU does. If we plan on folding to the BS anyway might as well make it cheaper.


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chenny8888
Joined: 03.10.2007
Elite Grinder

Originally posted by Puscherbilbo
What about a limp instead of a minr?
Basically we want to know what BU does. If we plan on folding to the BS anyway might as well make it cheaper.

Sounds good actually, we can go broke on some flops too I thiiink.


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