Originally posted by MathhNes
"The tough part about win rates in live poker is the fact that there is such a small sample size. On average, players see 20 - 25 hands/hr at a live casino. This is a nothing compared to the 60+ hands per hr/table you see online. So, you might be playing 4 times a week for 5 hour sessions over a period of four months and see that your win rate is 40/hr at 1/2 NL. Wow. 20BB/hr. This means your absolutely crushing the game. But in reality, you shouldn't take this number too seriously. Why? Because your sample size is too small. Assuming 25 hands, you only see 500 hands/wk and 8000 hand in the 4 month period. This is not close to the long run and solid online player can go 40k+ hands of breaking even because of bad variance or luck. Since it's tough to get a large sample size, just be honest about your skill level. Are you just hitting big hands? Are you giving beats to a lot of people? As a rule of thumb, if your winning 20BB/hr+ in a game, you are most likely on a heater (running really good). I think the best players in the game (over a large sample) probably win closer to 10BB/hr with the rare few (in really good games/very competent) winning closer to 15BB/hr. So, in conclusion, just be aware of yourself and be honest. It's the only way to get by with conditions given in live games. Don't let stats determine your skill level, especially when they are not over a significant sample. "
That said, no doubt that you crush these games
- and i also believe that having winrates above 20bb/100 in live games is very possible.
Keep it up man. Live games can be really fun when winning but hearbreaking when losing (IMO) - because it takes so long to make back the lost money. - 10-20x longer than it takes online
According to most dealers at the casino I play at, they try to get 30 hands per hour. I also thought I was just on a massive heater at first.My opinion changed by talking to other grinders in Edmonton who have similar and better results through larger sample sizes (see the thread i linked to).
As for dealing with swings live, downswings are much smaller live b/c your winrates are larger. I agree that losing money live is alot harder to deal with. I have a few suggestions to deal with that. First bring alot of money to the casino. That way you wont have to quit or go to the bank machine if u lose a few buyins. Secondly over time u will develop a strong disconnection with the money u play with. It almost feels like monopoly money. I am soo glad I didnt have a proper job before poker otherwise this disconnection would be alot tougher.