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AT bad call on 3bet?

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Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $100(BB) Replayer
SB ($3,410)
BB ($1,500)
UTG ($1,305)
UTG+1 ($1,610)
CO ($2,660)
Hero ($3,015)

Dealt to Hero T♣ A♠

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $250, fold, BB raises to $1,500 (AI), Hero calls $1,250

villain has 25/23 and 9% 3 bet in 123 hands.I really think this is a leak of mine that i tend to call 3 bets a bit wider than i should.WHat do you think of this?How can i learn my optimal range for each spot(wizard hasnt something)


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4 replies
Buhas
Joined: 17.07.2007

Not sure, but I think it kinda depends on villian, but imo AJ+,88+


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kurrkabin
Joined: 12.10.2010

Buhas has the right idea. Readless, go ahead and call 88+, AJ+. But once again, it is player dependent. You can analyze these spots using 2 programs, one of them is ICM explorer. You put in the numbers (stack sizes, blinds, raises etc) and it will give you an idea of what equity you need considering chip odds+ ICM tax (risk premium) to make a call. Once you are done with that, you use a prog like Pokerstrategy Equilab and see how your hand does vs what rates to be the villains 3bet range in this spot.

I did the calculations for you and I will post the results:

Fold: 2765 chips, 0.2001, SD: $17.24
Win: 4565 chips, 0.2936
Lose: 1515 chips, 0.1219
Tie: 3040 chips, 0.2156

Equity needed: 45.57% - Thats the equity we need to make a call.
Chip odds: 40.98% That is the pot odds we get.
Risk premium: 4.58% That is the Icm tax.
Chips gained by marginal call: 139.73.
Ties count as 54.58% of a win.
SD of marginal call: $17.56.

If villain is shoving 66+, A9o(s)+, KJs+, KQo+ which is actually on the tighter side imo, we get 46,28% with AJo, so this is gonna be a winning play in the long run. Depends on a lot of different factors, but I will personally re-steal much wider than that vs a reg, which makes our call even better. But you get my point.

P.S. to make ATo a call, he needs to be re-stealing a much wider range. Something like any pair, any suited Ace, A8o+, and some strong broadway. Depending on whether he likes to shove all his suited aces or fold the low kicker ones and add more broadway, results will change. Use HEM to determine his " VS Steal 3bet% in the BB", that will give you an idea. 129 is unfiltered is nothing though. Small sample. I like to make a fold here. AJo is a snap though.


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MilanBurdych
Joined: 20.05.2008

Am a nit I fold AJ aswell. ;) I like to have more info to call wider.


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kurrkabin
Joined: 12.10.2010

Originally posted by MilanBurdych
Am a nit I fold AJ aswell. ;) I like to have more info to call wider.

I know you are a nit! Said with all my respect though :)


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