PokerStars - $0.10 NL (9 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3
MP: $5.15
CO: $4.15
BTN: $3.60
Hero (SB): $12.72
BB: $3.25
UTG: $12.08
Hero posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10
Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero has 9♦ J♦
UTG calls $0.10, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls $0.05, BB checks
Paying half a BB to enter a pot of 3 seemed like quite reasonable odds to me for entering a pot with J9s.
Flop: ($0.30, 3 players) 6♣ T♣ Q♠
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG bets $0.20, Hero calls $0.20, fold
I have an OESD here, but I think I should not count the K:c and 8:c since these cards might give my opponent a flush. Having 6 outs, I hit on the turn or river 1 out of 4 times. So to call the $0.20 bet, I should expect to win at least $0.80 if I hit. Since that is something I would expect, I call here.
Turn: ($0.70, 2 players) K♣
Hero checks, UTG bets $0.33, Hero raises to $1.00, UTG raises to $2.00, Hero calls $1.00
Here comes the card that messes me up. When UTG bets, I decide to raise for both value and protection. I have a very strong hand from which I want to get value from worse hands such as trips or 2 pair, and I do not want to give Villain a cheap 4th ♣.
When Villain 3bets such a low amount, I feel like he probably has the nuts here and I think I should have folded.
River: ($4.70, 2 players) 2♥
Hero bets $1.70, UTG raises to $9.59, fold
On the river I try to make a low blockbet in the hopes of getting to see the showdown a bit more cheaply.
Once UTG shoves, I have to call $7.89 for a pot of $23.88, so I need $7.89/$23.88 = 0.33 = 33% equity.
So the thing here is, does he have to flush less than 1 out of 3 times? I think he will have it more often than that.
